Ein versicherungsmathematischer Ansatz zur Berechnung von Marktwerten der Deckungsrückstellung in der Lebensversicherung

Zusammenfassung: Basierend auf den bekannten versicherungsmathematischen Berechnungsmethoden zur Bestimmung der Höhe von versicherungstechnischen Verbindlichkeiten für die Lebensversicherung wird eine Lösung zur Kalkulation von Marktwerten vorgestellt, welche den Prinzipien von Solvency II Rechnung trägt. Kernstück dabei ist die Diskontierung von wahrscheinlichkeitsgewichteten künftigen Cashflows, welche durch die Berechnung von aktuarischen Barwerten unter Einbeziehung von Rechnungsgrundlagen 2. Ordnung (Zinskurve, Stornoverhalten, Kosten, Prämienfreistellungsverhalten, etc.) umgesetzt wird. Die Studie enthält sowohl die Herleitung und Diskussion des benötigten Formelwerkes als auch die exemplarische Darstellung anhand ausgewählter Tarifbeispiele. Die besprochenen Prinzipien sind auch maßgeblich für die geplanten IFRS Vorschriften, welche mittlerweile als Exposure Draft vorliege

In-flight calibration of STEREO-B/WAVES antenna system

The STEREO/WAVES (SWAVES) experiment on board the two STEREO spacecraft (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) launched on 25 October 2006 is dedicated to the measurement of the radio spectrum at frequencies between a few kilohertz and 16 MHz. The SWAVES antenna system consists of 6 m long orthogonal monopoles designed to measure the electric component of the radio waves. With this configuration direction finding of radio sources and polarimetry (analysis of the polarization state) of incident radio waves is possible. For the evaluation of the SWAVES data the receiving properties of the antennas, distorted by the radiation coupling with the spacecraft body and other onboard devices, have to be known accurately. In the present context, these properties are described by the antenna effective length vectors. We present the results of an in-flight calibration of the SWAVES antennas using the observations of the nonthermal terrestrial auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) during STEREO roll maneuvers in an early stage of the mission. A least squares method combined with a genetic algorithm was applied to find the effective length vectors of the STEREO Behind (STEREO-B)/WAVES antennas in a quasi-static frequency range ($L_{antenna} \ll \lambda_{wave}$) which fit best to the model and observed AKR intensity profiles. The obtained results confirm the former SWAVES antenna analysis by rheometry and numerical simulations. A final set of antenna parameters is recommended as a basis for evaluations of the SWAVES data

Determination of Electromagnetic Source Direction as an Eigenvalue Problem

Low-frequency solar and interplanetary radio bursts are generated at frequencies below the ionospheric plasma cutoff and must therefore be measured in space, with deployable antenna systems. The problem of measuring both the general direction and polarization of an electromagnetic source is commonly solved by iterative fitting methods such as linear regression that deal simultaneously with both directional and polarization parameters. We have developed a scheme that separates the problem of deriving the source direction from that of determining the polarization, avoiding iteration in a multi-dimensional manifold. The crux of the method is to first determine the source direction independently of concerns as to its polarization. Once the source direction is known, its direct characterization in terms of Stokes vectors in a single iteration if desired, is relatively simple. This study applies the source-direction determination to radio signatures of flares received by STEREO. We studied two previously analyzed radio type III bursts and found that the results of the eigenvalue decomposition technique are consistent with those obtained previously by Reiner et al. (Solar Phys. 259, 255, 2009). For the type III burst observed on 7 December 2007, the difference in travel times from the derived source location to STEREO A and B is the same as the difference in the onset times of the burst profiles measured by the two spacecraft. This is consistent with emission originating from a single, relatively compact source. For the second event of 29 January 2008, the relative timing does not agree, suggesting emission from two sources separated by 0.1 AU, or perhaps from an elongated region encompassing the apparent source locations.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, Accepted in Solar Physic

Control of Jupiter's radio emission and aurorae by the solar wind

Radio emissions from Jupiter provided the first evidence that this giant planet has a strong magnetic field(1,2) and a large magnetosphere(3). Jupiter also has polar aurorae(4), which are similar in many respects to Earth's aurorae(5). The radio emissions are believed to be generated along the high-latitude magnetic field lines by the same electrons that produce the aurorae, and both the radio emission in the hectometric frequency range and the aurorae vary considerably(6,7). The origin of the variability, however, has been poorly understood. Here we report simultaneous observations using the Cassini and Galileo spacecraft of hectometric radio emissions and extreme ultraviolet auroral emissions from Jupiter. Our results show that both of these emissions are triggered by interplanetary shocks propagating outward from the Sun. When such a shock arrives at Jupiter, it seems to cause a major compression and reconfiguration of the magnetosphere, which produces strong electric fields and therefore electron acceleration along the auroral field lines, similar to the processes that occur during geomagnetic storms at the Earth.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62740/1/415985a.pd

Effects of drought on nitrogen turnover and abundances of ammonia-oxidizers in mountain grassland

Future climate scenarios suggest an increased frequency of summer drought periods in the European Alpine Region. Drought can affect soil nitrogen (N) cycling, by altering N transformation rates, as well as the abundances of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and archaea. However, the extent to which drought affects N cycling under in situ conditions is still controversial. The goal of this study was to analyse effects of drought on soil N turnover and ammoniaoxidizer abundances in soil without drought history. To this end we conducted rain-exclusion experiments at two differently managed mountain grassland sites, an annually mown and occasionally fertilized meadow and an abandoned grassland. Soils were sampled before, during and after drought and were analysed for potential gross rates of N mineralization, microbial uptake of inorganic N, nitrification, and the abundances of bacterial and archaeal ammonia-oxidizers based on gene copy numbers of the amoA gene (AOB and AOA, respectively). Drought induced different responses at the two studied sites. At the managed meadow drought increased NH+/4 immobilization rates and NH+/4 concentrations in the soil water solution, but led to a reduction of AOA abundance compared to controls. At the abandoned site gross nitrification and NO-/3 immobilization rates decreased during drought, while AOB and AOA abundances remained stable. Rewetting had only minor, short-term effects on the parameters that had been affected by drought. Seven weeks after the end of drought no differences to control plots could be detected. Thus, our findings demonstrated that in mountain grasslands drought had distinct transient effects on soil nitrogen cycling and ammonia-oxidizers, which could have been related to a niche differentiation of AOB and AOA with increasing NH+/4 levels. However, the effect strength of drought was modulated by grassland management

Can current moisture responses predict soil CO2 efflux under altered precipitation regimes? A synthesis of manipulation experiments.

As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question of to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for 7 of these 38 experiments was this hypothesis rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable data sets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate dependencies of SCE. Hence, the most justified answer to the question of whether current moisture responses of SCE can be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered precipitation regimes is ?no? ? as based on the most reliable data sets available. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, should conduct high-frequency SCE measurements, and should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because with the novel approach presented here, we demonstrated that, at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses could not be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall conditions

Can current moisture responses predict soil CO2 efflux under altered precipitation regimes? A synthesis of manipulation experiments

As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question of to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for 7 of these 38 experiments was this hypothesis rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable data sets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate dependencies of SCE. Hence, the most justified answer to the question of whether current moisture responses of SCE can be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered precipitation regimes is 'no' - as based on the most reliable data sets available. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, should conduct high-frequency SCE measurements, and should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because with the novel approach presented here, we demonstrated that, at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses could not be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall conditions

Can Current Moisture Responses Predict Soil CO2 Efflux Under Altered Precipitation Regimes? A Synthesis of Manipulation Experiments

As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available, or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for seven of these 38 experiments, this hypothesis was rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable datasets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Accordingly, regression tree analysis demonstrated that measurement frequency was crucial; our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate-dependencies of SCE. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, they require high-frequency SCE measurements and they should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because we demonstrated that at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses cannot be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall