The Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI) score as a predictor for cognitive decline and potential surrogate outcome in the FINGER lifestyle randomized controlled trial

Background and purpose: The complex aetiology of Alzheimer's disease suggests prevention potential. Risk scores have potential as risk stratification tools and surrogate outcomes in multimodal interventions targeting specific at-risk populations. The Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI) was tested in relation to cognition and its suitability as a surrogate outcome in a multidomain lifestyle randomized controlled trial, in older adults at risk of dementia. Methods: In this post hoc analysis of the Finnish Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER), ANU-ADRI was calculated at baseline, 12, and 24 months (n = 1174). The association between ANU-ADRI and cognition (at baseline and over time), the intervention effect on changes in ANU-ADRI, and the potential impact of baseline ANU-ADRI on the intervention effect on changes in cognition were assessed using linear mixed models with maximum likelihood estimation. Results: A higher ANU-ADRI was significantly related to worse cognition, at baseline (e.g., estimate for global cognition [95% confidence interval] was −0.028 [−0.032 to −0.025]) and over the 2-year study (e.g., estimate for 2-year changes in ANU-ADRI and per-year changes in global cognition [95% confidence interval] was −0.068 [−0.026 to −0.108]). No significant beneficial intervention effect was reported for ANU-ADRI, and baseline ANU-ADRI did not significantly affect the response to the intervention on changes in cognition. Conclusions: The ANU-ADRI was effective for the risk prediction of cognitive decline. Risk scores may be crucial for the success of novel dementia prevention strategies, but their algorithm, the target population, and the intervention design should be carefully considered when choosing the appropriate tool for each context

Substance use, affective symptoms, and suicidal ideation among Russian, Somali, and Kurdish migrants in Finland

Comorbidity of substance use with affective symptoms and suicidality has been well documented in the general population. However, population-based migrant studies about this association are scarce. We examined the association of affective symptoms and suicidal ideation with binge drinking, daily smoking, and lifetime cannabis use among Russian, Somali, and Kurdish migrants in comparison with the Finnish general population. Cross-sectional data from the Finnish Migrant Health and Wellbeing Study (Maamu, n = 1307) and comparison group data of the general Finnish population (n = 860) from the Health 2011 Survey were used. Substance use included self-reported current binge drinking, daily smoking, and lifetime cannabis use. Affective symptoms and suicidal ideation were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 (HSCL-25). We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses, including age, gender, and additional socio-demographic and migration-related factors. Suicidal ideation (OR 2.4 95% CI 1.3-4.3) was associated with binge drinking among Kurds and lifetime cannabis use among Russians (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9-17.0) and Kurds (OR 5.5, 95% CI 1.9-15.6). Affective symptoms were associated with daily smoking (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.02-2.6) and lifetime cannabis use (OR 6.1, 95% CI 2.6-14.5) among Kurdish migrants. Our results draw attention to the co-occurrence of suicidal ideation, affective symptoms, and substance use, especially among Kurdish migrants. These results highlight the variation of comorbidity of substance use and affective symptoms between the different populations. This implies that screening for substance use in mental healthcare cannot be neglected based on presumed habits of substance use

Green areas around homes reduce atopic sensitization in children

Peer reviewe

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. METHODS: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010-11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25-74years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3-14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6-25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6-35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%-11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9-8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3-7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7-5.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies

Analyzing Recent Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.

BACKGROUND: In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. OBJECTIVE: To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. METHODS: DATA SOURCES: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. ANALYSIS: Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). RESULTS: CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). CONCLUSIONS: Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive

Socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales

Background: Many causes of death are directly attributable to the toxic effects of alcohol and deaths from these causes are increasing in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in alcohol-related mortality in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and age within a national context. Methods: An ecological study design was used with data from 8797 standard table wards in England and Wales. The methodology included using the Carstairs Index as a measure of socioeconomic deprivation at the small-area level and the national harmonised classification system for urban and rural areas in England and Wales. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using the National Statistics definition, devised for tracking national trends in alcohol-related deaths. Deaths from liver cirrhosis accounted for 85% of all deaths included in this definition. Deaths from 1999-2003 were examined and 2001 census ward population estimates were used as the denominators. Results: The analysis was based on 28,839 deaths. Alcohol-related mortality rates were higher in men and increased with increasing age, generally reaching peak levels in middle-aged adults. The 45-64 year age group contained a quarter of the total population but accounted for half of all alcohol-related deaths. There was a clear association between alcohol-related mortality and socioeconomic deprivation, with progressively higher rates in more deprived areas. The strength of the association varied with age. Greatest relative inequalities were seen amongst people aged 25-44 years, with relative risks of 4.73 (95% CI 4.00 to 5.59) and 4.24 (95% CI 3.50 to 5.13) for men and women respectively in the most relative to the least deprived quintiles. People living in urban areas experienced higher alcohol-related mortality relative to those living in rural areas, with differences remaining after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation. Adjusted relative risks for urban relative to rural areas were 1.35 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.52) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.25) for men and women respectively. Conclusions: Large inequalities in alcohol-related mortality exist between sub-groups of the population in England and Wales. These should be considered when designing public health policies to reduce alcohol-related harm

Sustaining modified behaviours learnt in a diabetes prevention program in regional Australia : the role of social context

BackgroundThe Greater Green Triangle diabetes prevention program was conducted in primary health care setting of Victoria and South Australia in 2004--2006. This program demonstrated significant reductions in diabetes risk factors which were largely sustained at 18 month follow-up. The theoretical model utilised in this program achieved its outcomes through improvements in coping self-efficacy and planning. Previous evaluations have concentrated on the behavioural components of the intervention. Other variables external to the main research design may have contributed to the success factors but have yet to be identified. The objective of this evaluation was to identify the extent to which participants in a diabetes prevention program sustained lifestyle changes several years after completing the program and to identify contextual factors that contributed to sustaining changes.MethodsA qualitative evaluation was conducted. Five focus groups were held with people who had completed a diabetes prevention program, several years later to assess the degree to which they had sustained program strategies and to identify contributing factors.ResultsParticipants value the recruitment strategy. Involvement in their own risk assessment was a strong motivator. Learning new skills gave participants a sense of empowerment. Receiving regular pathology reports was a means of self-assessment and a motivator to continue. Strong family and community support contributed to personal motivation and sustained practice.ConclusionsFamily and local community supports constitute the contextual variables reported to contribute to sustained motivation after the program was completed. Behaviour modification programs can incorporate strategies to ensure these factors are recognised and if necessary, strengthened at the local level.<br /