Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Rare Bilateral Nasopalatine Duct Cysts: A Case Report

The nasopalatine duct cyst (NPDC) is the most common of the non-odontogenic cyst of the jaws. This cysts are usually central or unilateral with no prevalence of side occurrence. The NPDC is the most frequent developmental, nonodontogenic cyst of the jaws. This cyst originates from epithelial remnants from the nasopalatine duct. The cells could be activated spontaneously during life, or are eventually stimulated by the irritating action of various agents (infection, etc.). Generally, patients present without clinical signs and symptoms. Therefore, the tentative diagnosis "nasopalatine duct cyst" is often based on a coincidental radiological finding on a routine panoramic view or occlusal radiograph. The definite diagnosis should be based on clinical, radiological and above all histopathologic findings. The therapy of nasopalatine duct cysts consists of an enucleation of the cystic tissue, only in rare cases a marsupialization needs to be performed. This report describes the appearance and treatment of a rare case of bilateral nasopalatine duct cyst

Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and the estimation of between-study correlation

BACKGROUND: When multiple endpoints are of interest in evidence synthesis, a multivariate meta-analysis can jointly synthesise those endpoints and utilise their correlation. A multivariate random-effects meta-analysis must incorporate and estimate the between-study correlation (ρ(B)). METHODS: In this paper we assess maximum likelihood estimation of a general normal model and a generalised model for bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BRMA). We consider two applied examples, one involving a diagnostic marker and the other a surrogate outcome. These motivate a simulation study where estimation properties from BRMA are compared with those from two separate univariate random-effects meta-analyses (URMAs), the traditional approach. RESULTS: The normal BRMA model estimates ρ(B )as -1 in both applied examples. Analytically we show this is due to the maximum likelihood estimator sensibly truncating the between-study covariance matrix on the boundary of its parameter space. Our simulations reveal this commonly occurs when the number of studies is small or the within-study variation is relatively large; it also causes upwardly biased between-study variance estimates, which are inflated to compensate for the restriction on [Formula: see text] (B). Importantly, this does not induce any systematic bias in the pooled estimates and produces conservative standard errors and mean-square errors. Furthermore, the normal BRMA is preferable to two normal URMAs; the mean-square error and standard error of pooled estimates is generally smaller in the BRMA, especially given data missing at random. For meta-analysis of proportions we then show that a generalised BRMA model is better still. This correctly uses a binomial rather than normal distribution, and produces better estimates than the normal BRMA and also two generalised URMAs; however the model may sometimes not converge due to difficulties estimating ρ(B). CONCLUSION: A BRMA model offers numerous advantages over separate univariate synthesises; this paper highlights some of these benefits in both a normal and generalised modelling framework, and examines the estimation of between-study correlation to aid practitioners

Methods for specifying the target difference in a randomised controlled trial : the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA) systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Toll-Like Receptor Ligands Induce Human T Cell Activation and Death, a Model for HIV Pathogenesis

Background: Recently, heightened systemic translocation of microbial products was found in persons with chronic HIV infection and this was linked to immune activation and CD4 + T cell homeostasis. Methodology: We examined here the effects of microbial Toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands on T cell activation in vitro. Conclusions/Findings: We show that exposure to TLR ligands results in activation of memory and effector CD4 + and CD8 + T cells. After exposure to each of 8 different ligands that activate TLRs 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9, CD8 + T cells are activated and gain expression of the C type lectin CD69 that may promote their retention in lymphoid tissues. In contrast, CD4 + T cells rarely increase CD69 expression but instead enter cell cycle. Despite activation and cell cycle entry, CD4 + T cells divide poorly and instead, disproportionately undergo activation-induced cell death. Systemic exposure to TLR agonists may therefore increase immune activation, effector cell sequestration in lymphoid tissues and T cell turnover. These events may contribute to the pathogenesis of immune dysfunction and CD4+ T cell losses in chronic infection with the human immunodeficiency virus

Hearing aid effectiveness after aural rehabilitation - individual versus group (HEARING) trial: RCT design and baseline characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hearing impairment is the most common body system disability in veterans. In 2008, nearly 520,000 veterans had a disability for hearing loss through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Changes in eligibility for hearing aid services, along with the aging population, contributed to a greater than 300% increase in the number of hearing aids dispensed from 1996 to 2006. In 2006, the VA committed to having no wait times for patient visits while providing quality clinically-appropriate care. One approach to achieving this goal is the use of group visits as an alternative to individual visits. We sought to determine: 1) if group hearing aid fitting and follow-up visits were at least as effective as individual visits, and 2) whether group visits lead to cost savings through the six month period after the hearing aid fitting. We describe the rationale, design, and characteristics of the baseline cohort of the first randomized clinical trial to study the impact of group versus individual hearing aid fitting and follow-up visits.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were recruited from the VA Puget Sound Health Care System Audiology Clinic. Eligible patients had no previous hearing aid use and monaural or binaural air-conduction hearing aids were ordered at the evaluation visit. Participants were randomized to receive the hearing aid fitting and the hearing aid follow-up in an individual or group visit. The primary outcomes were hearing-related function, measured with the first module of the Effectiveness of Aural Rehabilitation (Inner EAR), and hearing aid adherence. We tracked the total cost of planned and unplanned audiology visits over the 6-month interval after the hearing aid fitting.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>A cohort of 659 participants was randomized to receive group or individual hearing aid fitting and follow-up visits. Baseline demographic and self-reported health status and hearing-related measures were evenly distributed across the treatment arms.</p> <p>Outcomes after the 6-month follow-up period are needed to determine if group visits were as least as good as those for individual visits and will be reported in subsequent publication.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>NCT00260663</p

Assessing socioeconomic health care utilization inequity in Israel: impact of alternative approaches to morbidity adjustment

<p/> <p>Background</p> <p>The ability to accurately detect differential resource use between persons of different socioeconomic status relies on the accuracy of health-needs adjustment measures. This study tests different approaches to morbidity adjustment in explanation of health care utilization inequity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A representative sample was selected of 10 percent (~270,000) adult enrolees of Clalit Health Services, Israel's largest health care organization. The Johns-Hopkins University Adjusted Clinical Groups^®were used to assess each person's overall morbidity burden based on one year's (2009) diagnostic information. The odds of above average health care resource use (primary care visits, specialty visits, diagnostic tests, or hospitalizations) were tested using multivariate logistic regression models, separately adjusting for levels of health-need using data on age and gender, comorbidity (using the Charlson Comorbidity Index), or morbidity burden (using the Adjusted Clinical Groups). Model fit was assessed using tests of the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve and the Akaike Information Criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Low socioeconomic status was associated with higher morbidity burden (1.5-fold difference). Adjusting for health needs using age and gender or the Charlson index, persons of low socioeconomic status had greater odds of above average resource use for all types of services examined (primary care and specialist visits, diagnostic tests, or hospitalizations). In contrast, after adjustment for overall morbidity burden (using Adjusted Clinical Groups), low socioeconomic status was no longer associated with greater odds of specialty care or diagnostic tests (OR: 0.95, CI: 0.94-0.99; and OR: 0.91, CI: 0.86-0.96, for specialty visits and diagnostic respectively). Tests of model fit showed that adjustment using the comprehensive morbidity burden measure provided a better fit than age and gender or the Charlson Index.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Identification of socioeconomic differences in health care utilization is an important step in disparity reduction efforts. Adjustment for health-needs using a comprehensive morbidity burden diagnoses-based measure, this study showed relative underutilization in use of specialist and diagnostic services, and thus allowed for identification of inequity in health resources use, which could not be detected with less comprehensive forms of health-needs adjustments.</p

Chimera-like states in modular neural networks

Chimera states, namely the coexistence of coherent and incoherent behavior, were previously analyzed in complex networks. However, they have not been extensively studied in modular networks. Here, we consider a neural network inspired by the connectome of the C. elegans soil worm, organized into six interconnected communities, where neurons obey chaotic bursting dynamics. Neurons are assumed to be connected with electrical synapses within their communities and with chemical synapses across them. As our numerical simulations reveal, the coaction of these two types of coupling can shape the dynamics in such a way that chimera-like states can happen. They consist of a fraction of synchronized neurons which belong to the larger communities, and a fraction of desynchronized neurons which are part of smaller communities. In addition to the Kuramoto order parameter ?, we also employ other measures of coherence, such as the chimera-like ? and metastability ? indices, which quantify the degree of synchronization among communities and along time, respectively. We perform the same analysis for networks that share common features with the C. elegans neural network. Similar results suggest that under certain assumptions, chimera-like states are prominent phenomena in modular networks, and might provide insight for the behavior of more complex modular networks