A simple mathematical model of gradual Darwinian evolution: Emergence of a Gaussian trait distribution in adaptation along a fitness gradient

We consider a simple mathematical model of gradual Darwinian evolution in continuous time and continuous trait space, due to intraspecific competition for common resource in an asexually reproducing population in constant environment, while far from evolutionary stable equilibrium. The model admits exact analytical solution. In particular, Gaussian distribution of the trait emerges from generic initial conditions.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, as accepted to J Math Biol 2013/03/1

Evolvability in the fossil record

The concept of evolvability—the capacity of a population to produce and maintain evolutionarily relevant variation—has become increasingly prominent in evolutionary biology. Paleontology has a long history of investigating questions of evolvability, but paleontological thinking has tended to neglect recent discussions, because many tools used in the current evolvability literature are challenging to apply to the fossil record. The fundamental difficulty is how to disentangle whether the causes of evolutionary patterns arise from variational properties of traits or lineages rather than being due to selection and ecological success. Despite these obstacles, the fossil record offers unique and growing sources of data that capture evolutionary patterns of sustained duration and significance otherwise inaccessible to evolutionary biologists. Additionally, there exist a variety of strategic possibilities for combining prominent neontological approaches to evolvability with those from paleontology. We illustrate three of these possibilities with quantitative genetics, evolutionary developmental biology, and phylogenetic models of macroevolution. In conclusion, we provide a methodological schema that focuses on the conceptualization, measurement, and testing of hypotheses to motivate and provide guidance for future empirical and theoretical studies of evolvability in the fossil record

The Molecular Phylogenetic Signature of Clades in Decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories

Measurement theory and paleobiology

Measurement theory, a branch of applied mathematics, offers guiding principles for extracting meaning from empirical observations and is applicable to any science involving measurements. Measurement theory is highly relevant in paleobiology because statistical approaches assuming ratio-scaled variables are commonly used on data belonging to nominal and ordinal scale types. We provide an informal introduction to representational measurement theory and argue for its importance in robust scientific inquiry. Although measurement theory is widely applicable in paleobiology research, we use the study of disparity to illustrate measurement theoretical challenges in the quantitative study of the fossil record. Respecting the inherent properties of different measurements enables meaningful inferences about evolutionary and ecological processes from paleontological data

How large should whales be?

The evolution and distribution of species body sizes for terrestrial mammals is well-explained by a macroevolutionary tradeoff between short-term selective advantages and long-term extinction risks from increased species body size, unfolding above the 2g minimum size induced by thermoregulation in air. Here, we consider whether this same tradeoff, formalized as a constrained convection-reaction-diffusion system, can also explain the sizes of fully aquatic mammals, which have not previously been considered. By replacing the terrestrial minimum with a pelagic one, at roughly 7000g, the terrestrial mammal tradeoff model accurately predicts, with no tunable parameters, the observed body masses of all extant cetacean species, including the 175,000,000g Blue Whale. This strong agreement between theory and data suggests that a universal macroevolutionary tradeoff governs body size evolution for all mammals, regardless of their habitat. The dramatic sizes of cetaceans can thus be attributed mainly to the increased convective heat loss is water, which shifts the species size distribution upward and pushes its right tail into ranges inaccessible to terrestrial mammals. Under this macroevolutionary tradeoff, the largest expected species occurs where the rate at which smaller-bodied species move up into large-bodied niches approximately equals the rate at which extinction removes them.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 2 data table

Oil Palm Research in Context: Identifying the Need for Biodiversity Assessment

Oil palm cultivation is frequently cited as a major threat to tropical biodiversity as it is centered on some of the world's most biodiverse regions. In this report, Web of Science was used to find papers on oil palm published since 1970, which were assigned to different subject categories to visualize their research focus. Recent years have seen a broadening in the scope of research, with a slight growth in publications on the environment and a dramatic increase in those on biofuel. Despite this, less than 1% of publications are related to biodiversity and species conservation. In the context of global vegetable oil markets, palm oil and soyabean account for over 60% of production but are the subject of less than 10% of research. Much more work must be done to establish the impacts of habitat conversion to oil palm plantation on biodiversity. Results from such studies are crucial for informing conservation strategies and ensuring sustainable management of plantations

Complex body size trends in the evolution of sloths (Xenarthra: Pilosa)

Background Extant sloths present an evolutionary conundrum in that the two living genera are superficially similar (small-bodied, folivorous, arboreal) but diverged from one another approximately 30 million years ago and are phylogenetically separated by a radiation of medium to massive, mainly ground-dwelling, taxa. Indeed, the species in the two living genera are among the smallest, and perhaps most unusual, of the 50+ known sloth species, and must have independently and convergently evolved small size and arboreality. In order to accurately reconstruct sloth evolution, it is critical to incorporate their extinct diversity in analyses. Here, we used a dataset of 57 species of living and fossil sloths to examine changes in body mass mean and variance through their evolution, employing a general time-variable model that allows for analysis of evolutionary trends in continuous characters within clades lacking fully-resolved phylogenies, such as sloths. Results Our analyses supported eight models, all of which partition sloths into multiple subgroups, suggesting distinct modes of body size evolution among the major sloth lineages. Model-averaged parameter values supported trended walks in most clades, with estimated rates of body mass change ranging as high as 126 kg/million years for the giant ground sloth clades Megatheriidae and Nothrotheriidae. Inclusion of living sloth species in the analyses weakened reconstructed rates for their respective groups, with estimated rates for Megalonychidae (large to giant ground sloths and the extant two-toed sloth) were four times higher when the extant genus Choloepus was excluded. Conclusions Analyses based on extant taxa alone have the potential to oversimplify or misidentify macroevolutionary patterns. This study demonstrates the impact that integration of data from the fossil record can have on reconstructions of character evolution and establishes that body size evolution in sloths was complex, but dominated by trended walks towards the enormous sizes exhibited in some recently extinct forms

Regional Environmental Breadth Predicts Geographic Range and Longevity in Fossil Marine Genera

Geographic range is a good indicator of extinction susceptibility in fossil marine species and higher taxa. The widely-recognized positive correlation between geographic range and taxonomic duration is typically attributed to either accumulating geographic range with age or an extinction buffering effect, whereby cosmopolitan taxa persist longer because they are reintroduced by dispersal from remote source populations after local extinction. The former hypothesis predicts that all taxa within a region should have equal probabilities of extinction regardless of global distributions while the latter predicts that cosmopolitan genera will have greater survivorship within a region than endemics within the same region. Here we test the assumption that all taxa within a region have equal likelihoods of extinction.We use North American and European occurrences of marine genera from the Paleobiology Database and the areal extent of marine sedimentary cover in North America to show that endemic and cosmopolitan fossil marine genera have significantly different range-duration relationships and that broad geographic range and longevity are both predicted by regional environmental breadth. Specifically, genera that occur outside of the focal region are significantly longer lived and have larger geographic ranges and environmental breadths within the focal region than do their endemic counterparts, even after controlling for differences in sampling intensity. Analyses of the number of paleoenvironmental zones occupied by endemic and cosmopolitan genera suggest that the number of paleoenvironmental zones occupied is a key factor of geographic range that promotes genus survivorship.Wide environmental tolerances within a single region predict both broad geographic range and increased longevity in marine genera over evolutionary time. This result provides a specific driving mechanism for the spatial and temporal distributions of marine genera at regional and global scales and is consistent with the niche-breadth hypothesis operating on macroevolutionary timescales

A Comparison of the Effects of Random and Selective Mass Extinctions on Erosion of Evolutionary History in Communities of Digital Organisms

The effect of mass extinctions on phylogenetic diversity and branching history of clades remains poorly understood in paleobiology. We examined the phylogenies of communities of digital organisms undergoing open-ended evolution as we subjected them to instantaneous “pulse” extinctions, choosing survivors at random, and to prolonged “press” extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. We measured age of the phylogenetic root and tree stemminess, and evaluated how branching history of the phylogenetic trees was affected by the extinction treatments. We found that strong random (pulse) and strong selective extinction (press) both left clear long-term signatures in root age distribution and tree stemminess, and eroded deep branching history to a greater degree than did weak extinction and control treatments. The widely-used Pybus-Harvey gamma statistic showed a clear short-term response to extinction and recovery, but differences between treatments diminished over time and did not show a long-term signature. The characteristics of post-extinction phylogenies were often affected as much by the recovery interval as by the extinction episode itself

Biomic Specialization and Speciation Rates in Ruminants (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia): A Test of the Resource-Use Hypothesis at the Global Scale

The resource-use hypothesis proposed by E.S. Vrba predicts that specialist species have higher speciation and extinction rates than generalists because they are more susceptible to environmental changes and vicariance. In this work, we test some of the predictions derived from this hypothesis on the 197 extant and recently extinct species of Ruminantia (Cetartiodactyla, Mammalia) using the biomic specialization index (BSI) of each species, which is based on its distribution within different biomes. We ran 10000 Monte Carlo simulations of our data in order to get a null distribution of BSI values against which to contrast the observed data. Additionally, we drew on a supertree of the ruminants and a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (QuaSSE) for testing whether the degree of biomic specialization affects speciation rates in ruminant lineages. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the resource-use hypothesis, which foretells a higher speciation rate of lineages restricted to a single biome (BSI = 1) and higher frequency of specialist species in biomes that underwent high degree of contraction and fragmentation during climatic cycles. Bovids and deer present differential specialization across biomes; cervids show higher specialization in biomes with a marked hydric seasonality (tropical deciduous woodlands and schlerophyllous woodlands), while bovids present higher specialization in a greater variety of biomes. This might be the result of divergent physiological constraints as well as a different biogeographic and evolutionary history