Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

Lake evaporation plays an important role in the water budget of lakes. Predicting lake evaporation responses to climate change is thus of paramount importance for the planning of mitigation and adaption strategies. However, most studies that have simulated climate change impacts on lake evaporation have typically utilised a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, projected changes in lake evaporation from any single lake model can be considered uncertain. To better understand evaporation responses to climate change, a multi-model approach (i.e., where a range of projections are considered), is desirable. In this study, we present such multi-model analysis, where five lake models forced by four different climate model projections are used to simulate historic and future change (1901–2099) in lake evaporation. Our investigation, which focuses on sub-tropical Lake Kinneret (Israel), suggested considerable differences in simulated evaporation rates among the models, with the annual average evaporation rates varying between 1232 mm year−1 and 2608 mm year−1 during the historic period (1901–2005). We explored these differences by comparing the models with reference evaporation rates estimated using in-situ data (2000–2005) and a bulk aerodynamic algorithm. We found that the model ensemble generally captured the intra-annual variability in reference evaporation rates, and compared well at seasonal timescales (RMSEc = 0.19, R = 0.92). Using the model ensemble, we then projected future change in evaporation rates under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. Our projections indicated that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), annual average evaporation rates would increase in Lake Kinneret by 9–22 % under RCPs 2.6–8.5. When compared with projected regional declines in precipitation, our projections suggested that the water balance of Lake Kinneret could experience a deficit of 14–40 % this century. We anticipate this substantial projected deficit combined with a considerable growth in population expected for this region could have considerable negative impacts on water availability and would consequently increase regional water stress

The Raman spectrum of CaCO3 polymorphs calcite and aragonite: A combined experimental and computational study

Powder and single crystal Raman spectra of the two most common phases of calcium carbonate are calculated with ab initio techniques (using a “hybrid” functional and a Gaussian-type basis set) and measured both at 80 K and room temperature. Frequencies of the Raman modes are in very good agreement between calculations and experiments: the mean absolute deviation at 80 K is 4 and 8 cm−1 for calcite and aragonite, respectively. As regards intensities, the agreement is in general good, although the computed values overestimate the measured ones in many cases. The combined analysis permits to identify almost all the fundamental experimental Raman peaks of the two compounds, with the exception of either modes with zero computed intensity or modes overlapping with more intense peaks. Additional peaks have been identified in both calcite and aragonite, which have been assigned to 18O satellite modes or overtones. The agreement between the computed and measured spectra is quite satisfactory; in particular, simulation permits to clearly distinguish between calcite and aragonite in the case of powder spectra, and among different polarization directions of each compound in the case of single crystal spectra

Relation of mitral valve morphology and motion to mitral regurgitation severity in patients with mitral valve prolapse

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mitral valve thickness is used as a criterion to distinguish the classical from the non-classical form of mitral valve prolapse (MVP). Classical form of MVP has been associated with higher risk of mitral regurgitation (MR) and concomitant complications. We sought to determine the relation of mitral valve morphology and motion to mitral regurgitation severity in patients with MVP.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively analyzed transthoracic echocardiograms of 38 consecutive patients with MVP and various degrees of MR. In the parasternal long-axis view, leaflets length, diastolic leaflet thickness, prolapsing depth, billowing area and non-coaptation distance between both leaflets were measured.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty patients (53%) and 18 patients (47%) were identified as having moderate to severe and mild MR respectively (ERO = 45 ± 27 mm²vs. 5 ± 7 mm², p < 0.001). Diastolic leaflet thickness was similar in both groups (5.5 ± 0.9 mm vs. 5.3 ± 1 mm, p = 0.57). On multivariate analysis, the non-coaptation distance (OR 7.9 per 1 mm increase; 95% CI 1.72-37.2) was associated with significant MR. Thick mitral valve leaflet as traditionally reported (≥ 5 mm) was not associated with significant MR (OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.2-3.4).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with MVP, thick mitral leaflet is not associated with significant MR. Leaflet thickness is probably not as important in risk stratification as previously reported in patients with MVP. Other anatomical and geometrical features of the mitral valve apparatus area appear to be much more closely related to MR severity.</p

The relationship of multiple aspects of stigma and personal contact with someone hospitalized for mental illness, in a nationally representative sample

The stigma of mental illness has been shown to be affected by personal contact with mental illness and by a belief in the genetic heritability of mental illness. We use data from a nationally representative survey to test whether the relationship of stigma with contact remains after taking into account the effects of genetic beliefs and other background characteristics. Contact was defined as a history of psychiatric hospitalization among respondents themselves, their family members, or their friends. Respondents answered questions about a vignette character with a mental illness. We found that respondents with contact felt less anger and blame toward the character, thought that the character had a more serious problem, and would want less social distance from the character, including both casual and intimate aspects of social distance. Respondents with contact were not significantly different from the general population in the degree to which they expressed sympathy, thought the problem would last a lifetime, or wanted to restrict reproduction. Thus, contact is associated with having a less ostracizing, critical attitude toward a stranger with mental illness. The results underscore the importance of this experienced group as a resource in fighting stigma in society. Since many people who have had a psychiatric hospitalization have not told their friends or family members about it, this lower-stigma group could be enlarged

The elliptical galaxies NGC 1052 and NGC 7796: stellar populations and abundance alpha/Fe ratio

Context: The spatial distribution of the stellar populations inside a spheroidal system and their kinematical properties supply important informations about the formation process. Aims: We have performed a detailed stellar population analysis using long slit spectroscopic observations up to almost one effective radius of two different early-type galaxies of low density regions of the local Universe: NGC 1052, a E4 Liner prototype of a loose group that has a stellar rotating disc, and NGC 7796, a E1 of the field which shows a kinematically distinct core. The mean luminosity-weighted stellar age, metallicity, and alpha/Fe ratio along both photometric axes of them have been obtained in order to reconstruct the star formation history in their kinematically distinct subsystems. Methods: We have measured Lick indices and computed their radial gradients. They were compared with the predicted ones of simple stellar population models. We have also applied a stellar population synthesis. Results: The star characteristics are associated with their kinematics: they are older and alpha-enhanced in the bulge of NGC 1052 and core of NGC 7796, while they show a strong spread of alpha/Fe and age along the disc of NGC 1052 and an outwards radial decreasing of them outside the core of NGC 7796. The age variation is possibly connected to the alpha/Fe one. Conclusions: Both galaxies were formed by processes in which the star formation occurred firstly at the bulge (NGC 1052) and nucleus (NGC 7796) 12-15 Gyr ago on short timescales (0.1-1 Gyr) providing an efficient chemical enrichment by SN-II. In the disc of NGC 1052, there is some spread of age and formation timescales around its stars. In NGC 7796, the star formation timescale had some outwards radial increasing along both axes.Comment: 26 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Feasibility and impact of providing feedback to vaccinating medical clinics: evaluating a public health intervention

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vaccine coverage (VC) at a given age is a widely-used indicator for measuring the performance of vaccination programs. However, there is increasing data suggesting that measuring delays in administering vaccines complements the measure of VC. Providing feedback to vaccinators is recognized as an effective strategy for improving vaccine coverage, but its implementation has not been widely documented in Canada. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of providing personalized feedback to vaccinators and its impact on vaccination delays (VD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In April and May 2008, a one-hour personalized feedback session was provided to health professionals in vaccinating medical clinics in the Quebec City region. VD for vaccines administered at two and twelve months of age were presented. Data from the regional vaccination registry were analysed for participating clinics. Two 12-month periods before and after the intervention were compared, namely from April 1^st, 2007 to March 31^st, 2008 and from June 1^st, 2008 to May 31^st, 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ten medical clinics out of the twelve approached (83%), representing more than 2500 vaccinated children, participated in the project. Preparing and conducting the feedback involved 20 hours of work and expenses of $1000 per clinic. Based on a delay of one month, 94% of first doses of DTaP-Polio-Hib and 77% of meningococcal vaccine doses respected the vaccination schedule both before and after the intervention. Following the feedback, respect of the vaccination schedule increased for vaccines planned at 12 months for the four clinics that had modified their vaccination practices related to multiple injections (depending on the clinic, VD decreased by 24.4%, 32.0%, 40.2% and 44.6% respectively, p < 0.001 for all comparisons).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present study shows that it is feasible to provide personalized feedback to vaccinating clinics. While it may have encouraged positive changes in practice concerning multiple injections, this intervention on its own did not impact vaccination delays of the clinics visited. It is possible that feedback integrated into other types of effective interventions and sustained over time may have more impact on VD.</p

Molecular Recognition of H3/H4 Histone Tails by the Tudor Domains of JMJD2A: A Comparative Molecular Dynamics Simulations Study

Background: Histone demethylase, JMJD2A, specifically recognizes and binds to methylated lysine residues at histone H3 and H4 tails (especially trimethylated H3K4 (H3K4me3), trimethylated H3K9 (H3K9me3) and di, trimethylated H4K20 (H4K20me2, H4K20me3)) via its tandem tudor domains. Crystal structures of JMJD2A-tudor binding to H3K4me3 and H4K20me3 peptides are available whereas the others are not. Complete picture of the recognition of the four histone peptides by the tandem tudor domains yet remains to be clarified. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report a detailed molecular dynamics simulation and binding energy analysis of the recognition of JMJD2A-tudor with four different histone tails. 25 ns fully unrestrained molecular dynamics simulations are carried out for each of the bound and free structures. We investigate the important hydrogen bonds and electrostatic interactions between the tudor domains and the peptide molecules and identify the critical residues that stabilize the complexes. Our binding free energy calculations show that H4K20me2 and H3K9me3 peptides have the highest and lowest affinity to JMJD2A-tudor, respectively. We also show that H4K20me2 peptide adopts the same binding mode with H4K20me3 peptide, and H3K9me3 peptide adopts the same binding mode with H3K4me3 peptide. Decomposition of the enthalpic and the entropic contributions to the binding free energies indicate that the recognition of the histone peptides is mainly driven by favourable van der Waals interactions. Residue decomposition of the binding free energies with backbone and side chain contributions as well as their energetic constituents identify the hotspots in the binding interface of the structures. Conclusion: Energetic investigations of the four complexes suggest that many of the residues involved in the interactions are common. However, we found two receptor residues that were related to selective binding of the H3 and H4 ligands. Modifications or mutations on one of these residues can selectively alter the recognition of the H3 tails or the H4 tails

Attachment and coping in psychosis in relation to spiritual figures

Background: Studies have found higher levels of insecure attachment in individuals with schizophrenia. Attachment theory provides a framework necessary for conceptualizing the development of interpersonal functioning. Some aspects of the attachment of the believer to his/her spiritual figure are similar to those between the child and his/her parents. The correspondence hypothesis suggests that early child-parent interactions correspond to a person's relation to a spiritual figure. The compensation hypothesis suggests that an insecure attachment history would lead to a strong religiousness/spirituality as a compensation for the lack of felt security. The aim of this study is to explore attachment models in psychosis vs. healthy controls, the relationships between attachment and psychopathology and the attachment processes related to spiritual figures. Methods: Attachment models were measured in 30 patients with psychosis and 18 controls with the AAI (Adult Attachment interview) in relationship with psychopathology. Beliefs and practices related to a spiritual figure were investigated by qualitative and quantitative analyses. Results: Patients with psychosis showed a high prevalence of insecure avoidant attachment. Spiritual entities functioned like attachment figures in two thirds of cases. Interviews revealed the transformation of internal working models within relation to a spiritual figure: a compensation process was found in 7 of the 32 subjects who showed a significant attachment to a spiritual figure. Conclusions: Attachment theory allows us to highlight one of the underlying dimensions of spiritual coping in patients with psychosis

Nonlinear complexity analysis of brain fMRI signals in schizophrenia

Peer reviewedPublisher PD