Assessment of the effects of climate change on littoral ecosystems

RESUMEN: El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución de macroalgas en Europa. Para ello, en primer lugar, se desarrolló una base de datos de variables ambientales con sentido ecológico, tanto para el periodo histórico como en escenarios de cambio climático (OCLE, http://ocle.ihcantabria.com). Los datos se recopilaron de fuentes con series temporales homogéneas y largas (1985-2015 y 2015-2099) para 16 variables relevantes en la distribución de macroalgas. Posteriormente se seleccionaron cinco especies representativas en Europa: Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata y Cystoseira baccata. Su riesgo frente al cambio climático se evaluó mediante modelos de distribución de especies. Para reducir su incertidumbre en las proyecciones temporales, se desarrolló una metodología para seleccionar los algoritmos más transferibles en el tiempo, que se aplicó a los escenarios RCP 4.5 y 8.5 para el medio (2040-2069) y el largo plazo (2070-2099). Los resultados contribuyen a la mejora del conocimiento de la relación entre la ecología de las macroalgas y los factores ambientales, por un lado, y provee de herramientas a gestores e investigadores por el otro, para la construcción de modelos robustos con una metodología objetiva, reproducible, eficiente y aplicable a nivel mundial.ABSTRACT: The objective of this thesis is to assess the effects of climate change on macroalgae distribution in Europe. First, an ecologically-driven database of present and future drivers for marine life in Europe, the Open access database on Climate change effects on Littoral and oceanic Ecosystems (OCLE), was developed (http://ocle.ihcantabria.com). Data were gathered for homogeneous and long time series (1985-2015 and 2015-2099) for 16 variables relevant in seaweeds distribution. the Five species were selected as representative of European macroalgae: Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata. To assess the risk due to climate change, species distribution models were selected as an appropriate tool. To reduce uncertainty in temporal extrapolation, a step-wise methodology to select the most transferable algorithms in time was developed. It was applied to RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Results help to fill the gap in knowledge between seaweeds ecology and environmental drivers on the one-hand and between science and managers on the other, by paying particular attention to building robust models with objective, reproducible, globally applicable and efficient methodology.Esta tesis no habría sido posible sin el apoyo económico de la Fundación Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria y el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (BES‐2016‐076434)

Understanding activities of daily living in people with dementia: Why is there a gap between performance and ability?

People with dementia’s (PwD) performance of activities of daily living (ADLs) relates to what the PwD does in their daily routine, while their ability to complete tasks refers to what they could potentially do. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) (WHO, 2001) which highlighted the importance of identifying the gap between performance and ability to complete tasks and to consider how different factors contribute to disability, to make adjustments and promote participation. Although several studies have examined how intrinsic factors affect the performance and potential ability to carry out ADLs, very few of them have investigated the role of extrinsic factors, including both the physical and the human environment (represented by the primary carer), in PwD’s ADL functioning. Using the ICF model, this thesis aimed to investigate the role of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors on PwD’s ADL functioning, and how they may explain the gap that exists between the performance of ADLs and the actual ability to perform them. A mixed-methods approach was used to address the research questions. The first study used an experimental design to investigate the role of the environment in PwD’s ability to perform ADLs. Results showed that PwD performed better at home, even though the level of clutter was higher in their home environment than in the research-lab. Cognition was the only factor that predicted better functioning. The second study investigated how the combination of both intrinsic (cognition and apathy) and extrinsic factors (carer’s style) affected ADLs in PwD. Apathy levels and carer’s use of criticism style negatively affected ADL performance, while cognition and carer’s use of encouragement style improved performance of daily tasks. The next study investigated how the human environment affected the discrepancy between the reported and the observed ADL performance. Results showed a high disagreement between performance and ability to perform ADLs in PwD, and the carer’s use of encouragement and active management style were the factors that predicted this discrepancy. The final study used a qualitative approach to identify the types of assistance provided by carers, when the PwD performs a task. Five different themes were identified, and the findings suggested that the types of assistance used by carers could either enhance or hinder ADL performance of PwD. This thesis has shown that ADL functioning in PwD is affected by both the human and the physical environment and has revealed how the combination of extrinsic and intrinsic factors contributes to the changes in task performance of PwD. This work has confirmed the important role extrinsic factors play in shaping disability and that disability does not depend exclusively on disease-related factors. The findings provide evidence to support the development of multi-component non-pharmacological interventions that aim to reduce the gap between performance and ability to perform ADLs in PwD

Pacientes con necesidades de Cuidados Paliativos ingresados en un servicio de Medicina Interna

[ES] Partimos de la sospecha de que los Cuidados Paliativos (CP) en pacientes no oncológicos pueden presentar notables diferencias con los oncológicos. Objetivos: conocer el porcentaje total de pacientes paliativos en un año en el Servicio de Medicina Interna del Hospital Cruces (HUC), así como las diferencias descriptivas entre pacientes oncológicos y no oncológicos e identificar las variables que pudieran estar relacionadas con el fallecimiento. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo retrospectivo mediante revisión de historias clínicas de los pacientes ingresados en el Servicio de Medicina Interna del HUC derivados a la Unidad de Cuidados Paliativos durante el periodo comprendido entre julio de 2018 y junio de 2019. Se realizó un seguimiento de los pacientes hasta el éxitus (hospitalario o no) o el cierre del estudio. Además, se recogieron diferentes variables y se llevó a cabo un análisis estadístico entre variables epidemiológicas y clínicas tanto del paciente oncológico como no oncológico, estableciéndose una significación estadística de p<0,05. Resultados: El porcentaje de pacientes paliativos durante el periodo fue el 7%. De los 1884 pacientes ingresados se incluyeron 132 en el estudio, de los cuales el 71,2% eran oncológicos, frente al 28,8% de los no oncológicos. La neoplasia primaria más frecuente fue de origen digestivo, 39,4%, en concreto neoplasia pancreática, 10,65%. Las enfermedades de causa no tumoral más frecuente fueron con misma prevalencia las enfermedades cardiovasculares y neurológicas (31,6%). El síntoma más frecuente fue el síndrome general en oncológicos frente a la disnea en no oncológicos. Del número total de pacientes, el 88,6% se identificó como paliativo durante el ingreso. El motivo de alta de Medicina Interna más frecuente fue el éxitus en HUC (30,3%). El análisis estadístico mostró diferencias significativas con respecto al género, la edad, algunos parámetros analíticos, las escalas funcionales PPS, KPS y el lugar de éxitus de pacientes oncológicos y no oncológicos. Conclusiones: En HUC el 7% de pacientes ingresados son valorados por CP (132/1884 pacientes). La patología oncológica fue la más frecuente. Existe una sobrestimación de la esperanza de vida en los enfermos no oncológicos lo que hace necesaria una mejora en la calidad asistencial en estos pacientes

Predicting non-native seaweeds global distributions: The importance of tuning individual algorithms in ensembles to obtain biologically meaningful results

ABSTRACT: Modelling non-native marine species distributions is still a challenging activity. This study aims to predict the global distribution of five widespread introduced seaweed species by focusing on two mains aspects of the ensemble modeling process: (1) Does the enforcement of less complex models (in terms of number of predictors) help in obtaining better predictions? (2) What are the implications of tuning the configuration of individual algorithms in terms of ecological realism? Regarding the first aspect, two datasets with different number of predictors were created. Regarding the second aspect, four algorithms and three configurations were tested. Models were evaluated using common evaluation metrics (AUC, TSS, Boyce index and TSS-derived sensitivity) and ecological realism. Finally, a stepwise procedure for model selection was applied to build the ensembles. Models trained with the large predictor dataset generally performed better than models trained with the reduced dataset, but with some exceptions. Regarding algorithms and configurations, Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Boosting Models (GBM) scored the highest metric values in average, even though, RF response curves were the most unrealistic and non-smooth and GBM showed overfitting for some species. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and MAXENT, despite their lower scores, fitted smoother curves (especially at intermediate complexity levels). Reliable and biologically meaningful predictions were achieved. Inspecting the number of predictors to include in final ensembles and the selection of algorithms and its complexity have been demonstrated to be crucial for this purpose. Additionally, we highlight the importance of combining quantitative (based on multiple evaluation metrics) and qualitative (based on ecological realism) methods for selecting optimal configurations.This work was funded by the National Plan for Research in Science and Technological Innovation from the Spanish Government 2017-2020 [grant number C3N-pro project PID2019-105503RB-I00] and co-funded by the European Regional Development’s funds. SS-V acknowledges financial support under a predoctoral grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education andVocational Training [grantnumber:FPU18/03573]. CH acknowledges the financial support from the Government of Cantabria through the Fénix Programme and under a postdoctoral grant from the University of Cantabria [grant number: POS-UC- 2020-07]. This work is part of the PhD project of SS-V

Relationship between dough rheology and quality characteristics of rice based breads with oil or shortening

One of the main problems with gluten-free breads is their texture and their rapid staling. Fats are widely used for the improvement of texture and other quality parameters in gluten-free breads. The effect of oil and shortening in rice-breads quality and its correlation with dough rheology has been analysed. The inclusion of oil increased the specific volume of the breads and reduced their hardness, particularly with lower levels of hydration, whereas shortening did not modify specific volume or reduced it when hydration levels were higher. Oil, at levels of up to 30%, reduced the cohesiveness, springiness and resilience of breads, as well as the brightness of the crust, and increased the a* and b* values. Breads with oil also exhibited a greater number of pores per cm2, especially in doughs with higher levels of hydration. An inverse correlation between G’ and G” and bread specific volume has been observed, being the reciprocal-Y model a better predictor than the linear model to relate the bread specific volume.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Grant: AGL2011-23802and AGL2014-52928-C2

Aspectos limnológicos de estanques para la producción intensiva de tenca (Tinca tinca)

La Tenca está considerada una especie de crecimiento lento si se compara con otros ciprínidos, aunque la presencia de zooplancton en sistemas intensivos mejora significativamente el crecimiento de juveniles. Para determinar con mayor exactitud cuales son los factores que influyen en la producción de tenca en condiciones semiintensivas, se llevó a cabo un experimento en 9 estanques de engorde combinando diferentes condiciones de abonado (3 estanques control, 3 estanques con abonado inorgánico y 3 estanques con abonado orgánico). Desde julio a septiembre se realizaron muestreos quincenales de todas las características físico-químicas y del zooplancton con el fin de comprobar el efecto de las condiciones experimentales sobre dichas variables. En el estudio realizado se han identificado un total de 57 taxones: 6 copépodos, 18 cladóceros y 33 rotíferos. La abundancia zooplanctónica total fue mayor en los tratamientos fertilizados que en el control, siendo este incremento significativo para el caso del tratamiento inorgánico, lo que indica un efecto positivo del incremento en la carga de nutrientes sobre las comunidades zooplanctónicas. Aunque no se observaron diferencias significativas entre los tratamientos orgánico e inorgánico, la biomasa fue ligeramente superior en el tratamiento inorgánico. La composición faunística en los dos tratamientos fue similar. La comunidad zooplanctónica estuvo, en general, dominada por rotíferos y pequeños cladóceros, siendo los nauplios una fracción muy importante de dicha comunidad.Tench is considered a slow growing species in comparison with other ciprinids, even though high zooplancton densities in intensive farms significantly improve juvenile growth. In order to better study the which factors are important on trench production under semi-intensive conditions, an experiment was carried out, in nine triplicates pools combining different fertilizers (natural manure or nitrates) (3 inorganic pools, 3 organic pools and 3 control pools). From July to September 2003, fortnightly samples were taken from physical-chemical and zooplankton to test the effect of the experimental conditions over those variables. From the study, a total of 57 taxa were identified: 6 copepoda, 18 cladocerans and 33 rotifers. Total zooplankton abundance was higher in the fertilized treatments than in the control, the differences being significant in the inorganic treatment, which indicates a positive effect of the increment in the nutrient load over the zooplanktic communities. Even though no significant differences were observed among inorganic and organic fertilizers, the biomass was slightly superior in the inorganic treatment. The faunistic composition in both treatments was similar. The zooplankton community was dominated by rotifers, small cladocerans, and nauplii the latter being an important fraction of the community

Papel de Ing1 como supresor de tumores: estudio del fenotipo tumoral y de respuestas mediadas por p53 en animales deficientes en Ing1 e identificación de reguladores del locus

Tesis doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Medicina. Dpto. de Bioquímica. Fecha de lectura: 25 de Octubre de 200

Climate services for irrigation management

Ponencia presentada en: 10º Simpósio de Meteorologia e Geofísica da APMG, celebrado del 20 al 22 de marzo de 2017 en Lisboa, PortugalAEMET is contributing with the provision of climate services related with seasonal forecasts to the MOSES (Managing crOp water Saving with Enterprise Services) EU H2020 project. The main objective of MOSES project is to put in place and demonstrate at the real scale of application an information platform devoted to planning of irrigation water resources, to support water procurement and management agencies (e.g. reclamation consortia, irrigation districts, etc.). Its main goals are saving water, improving services to farmers and reducing monetary and energy costs. MOSES is a multi-disciplinary project involving 16 partners and the AEMET main contribution consists of producing weather and climate forecasts up to seasonal timescale for two demonstration areas over Spain and another one over Morocco selected for their agricultural value

Ecosystem services classification : A systems ecology perspective of the cascade framework

Creative Commons License (CC BY 4.0)Ecosystem services research faces several challenges stemming from the plurality of interpretations of classifications and terminologies. In this paper we identify two main challenges with current ecosystem services classification systems: i) the inconsistency across concepts, terminology and definitions, and; ii) the mix up of processes and end-state benefits, or flows and assets. Although different ecosystem service definitions and interpretations can be valuable for enriching the research landscape, it is necessary to address the existing ambiguity to improve comparability among ecosystem-service-based approaches. Using the cascade framework as a reference, and Systems Ecology as a theoretical underpinning, we aim to address the ambiguity across typologies. The cascade framework links ecological processes with elements of human well-being following a pattern similar to a production chain. Systems Ecology is a long-established discipline which provides insight into complex relationships between people and the environment. We present a refreshed conceptualization of ecosystem services which can support ecosystem service assessment techniques and measurement. We combine the notions of biomass, information and interaction from system ecology, with the ecosystem services conceptualization to improve definitions and clarify terminology. We argue that ecosystem services should be defined as the interactions (i.e. processes) of the ecosystem that produce a change in human well-being, while ecosystem components or goods, i.e. countable as biomass units, are only proxies in the assessment of such changes. Furthermore, Systems Ecology can support a re-interpretation of the ecosystem services conceptualization and related applied research, where more emphasis is needed on the underpinning complexity of the ecological system.Peer reviewe

Development of an empirical model for seasonal forecasting over the Mediterranean

Número monográfico dedicado al "18th EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018"In the frame of MEDSCOPE project, which mainly aims at improving predictability on seasonal timescales over the Mediterranean area, a seasonal forecast empirical model making use of new predictors based on a collection of targeted sensitivity experiments is being developed. Here, a first version of the model is presented. This version is based on multiple linear regression, using global climate indices (mainly global teleconnection patterns and indices based on sea surface temperatures, as well as sea-ice and snow cover) as predictors. The model is implemented in a way that allows easy modifications to include new information from other predictors that will come as result of the ongoing sensitivity experiments within the project. Given the big extension of the region under study, its high complexity (both in terms of orography and landsea distribution) and its location, different sub regions are affected by different drivers at different times. The empirical model makes use of different sets of predictors for every season and every sub region. Starting from a collection of 25 global climate indices, a few predictors are selected for every season and every sub region, checking linear correlation between predictands (temperature and precipitation) and global indices up to one year in advance and using moving averages from two to six months. Special attention has also been payed to the selection of predictors in order to guaranty smooth transitions between neighbor sub regions and consecutive seasons. The model runs a three-month forecast every month with a one-month lead time.This research has been supported by MEDSCOPE project, cofunded by the European Comission as part of ERA4CS, an ERANET initiated by JPI Climate (grant agreement 690462.5)