A water availability and low-flow analysis of the Tagliamento River discharge in Italy under changing climate conditions

This study estimated the effects of projected variations in precipitation and temperature on snowfall-snowmelt processes and subsequent river discharge variations in the Tagliamento River in Italy. A lumped-parameter, non-linear, rainfall-runoff model with 10 general circulation model (GCM) scenarios was used. Spatial and temporal changes in snow cover were assessed using 15 high-quality Landsat images. The 7Q10 low-flow probability distribution approximated by the Log-Pearson type III distribution function was used to examine river discharge variations with respect to climate extremes in the future. On average, the results obtained for 10 scenarios indicate a consistent warming rate for all time periods, which may increase the maximum and minimum temperatures by 2.3 °C (0.6–3.7 °C) and 2.7 °C (1.0–4.0 °C), respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared to the present climate. Consequently, the exponential rate of frost day decrease for 1 °C winter warming in lower-elevation areas is approximately three-fold (262%) higher than that in higher-elevation areas, revealing that snowfall in lower-elevation areas will be more vulnerable under a changing climate. In spite of the relatively minor changes in annual precipitation (−17.4 ~ 1.7% compared to the average of the baseline (1991–2010) period), snowfall will likely decrease by 48–67% during the 2080–2099 time period. The mean river discharges are projected to decrease in all seasons, except winter. The low-flow analysis indicated that while the magnitude of the minimum river discharge will increase (e.g. a 25% increase in the 7Q10 estimations for the winter season in the 2080–2099 time period), the number of annual average low-flow events will also increase (e.g. 16 and 15 more days during the spring and summer seasons, respectively, in the 2080–2099 time period compared to the average during the baseline period), leading to a future with a highly variable river discharge. Moreover, a consistent shift in river discharge timing would eventually cause snowmelt-generated river discharge to occur approximately 12 days earlier during the 2080–2099 time period compared to the baseline climate. These results are expected to raise the concern of policy makers, leading to the development of new water management strategies in the Tagliamento River basin to cope with changing climate conditions

Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate

The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy), geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations) and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario) for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan. <br><br> Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15–20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5–7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with <i>r</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.65). The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with <i>r</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment yield for all of Japan is considered, both scenarios produced an approximately 17–18% increase around the first half of the 21st century as compared to the present climate. For the second half of the century, the MIROC and MRI-RCM20 scenarios predict increased sediment yields of 22% and 14%, respectively, as compared to present climate estimations. On a regional scale, both scenarios identified several common areas prone to increased sediment yields in the future. Substantially higher specific sediment yield changes (over 1000 m<sup>3</sup>/km<sup>2</sup>/year) were estimated for the Hokuriku, Kinki and Shikoku regions. Out of 105 river basins in Japan, 96 will have an increasing trend of sediment yield under a changing climate, according to the predictions. Among them, five river basins will experience an increase of more than 90% of the present sediment yield in the future. This study is therefore expected to guide decision-makers in identifying the basins that are prone to sedimentation hazard under a changing climate in order to prepare and implement appropriate mitigation measures to cope with the impacts

GAMA/H-ATLAS: Common star-formation rate indicators and their dependence on galaxy physical parameter

We compare common star-formation rate (SFR) indicators in the local Universe in the GAMA equatorial fields (∼ 160 deg2), using ultraviolet (UV) photometry from GALEX, far-infrared (FIR) and sub-millimetre (sub-mm) photometry from H-ATLAS, and Hα spectroscopy from the GAMA survey. With a high-quality sample of 745 galaxies (median redshift (z) = 0.08), we consider three SFR tracers: UV luminosity corrected for dust attenuation using the UV spectral slope β (SFRUV,corr), Hα line luminosity corrected for dust using the Balmer decrement (BD) (SFRHα,corr), and the combination of UV and IR emission (SFRUV+IR). We demonstrate that SFRUV,corr can be reconciled with the other two tracers after applying attenuation corrections by calibrating IRX (i.e. the IR to UV luminosity ratio) and attenuation in the Hα (derived from BD) against β. However, β on its own is very unlikely to be a reliable attenuation indicator. We find that attenuation correction factors depend on parameters such as stellar mass (M∗), z and dust temperature (Tdust), but not on Hα equivalent width (EW) or Sersic index. Due to the large scatter in the IRX vs β correlation, when compared to SFRUV+IR, the β-corrected SFRUV,corr exhibits systematic deviations as a function of IRX, BD and Tdust

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): a deeper view of the mass, metallicity and SFR relationships

A full appreciation of the role played by gas metallicity (Z), star formation rate (SFR) and stellar mass (M*) is fundamental to understanding how galaxies form and evolve. The connections between these three parameters at different redshifts significantly affect galaxy evolution, and thus provide important constraints for galaxy evolution models. Using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey–Data Release 7 (SDSS–DR7) and the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) surveys, we study the relationships and dependences between SFR, Z and M*, as well as the Fundamental Plane for star-forming galaxies. We combine both surveys using volume-limited samples up to a redshift of z ≈ 0.36. The GAMA and SDSS surveys complement each other when analysing the relationships between SFR, M* and Z. We present evidence for SFR and metallicity evolution to z ∼ 0.2. We study the dependences between SFR, M*, Z and specific SFR (SSFR) on the M*–Z, M*–SFR, M*–SSFR, Z–SFR and Z–SSFR relations, finding strong correlations between all. Based on those dependences, we propose a simple model that allows us to explain the different behaviour observed between low- and high-mass galaxies. Finally, our analysis allows us to confirm the existence of a Fundamental Plane, for which M* = f(Z, SFR) in star-forming galaxies

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): the 0.013 < z < 0.1 cosmic spectral energy distribution from 0.1 m to 1 mm

We use the Galaxy And Mass Assembly survey (GAMA) I data set combined with GALEX, Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) imaging to construct the low-redshift (z < 0.1) galaxy luminosity functions in FUV, NUV, ugriz and YJHK bands from within a single well-constrained volume of 3.4 × 105 (Mpc h−1)3. The derived luminosity distributions are normalized to the SDSS data release 7 (DR7) main survey to reduce the estimated cosmic variance to the 5 per cent level. The data are used to construct the cosmic spectral energy distribution (CSED) from 0.1 to 2.1 μm free from any wavelength-dependent cosmic variance for both the elliptical and non-elliptical populations. The two populations exhibit dramatically different CSEDs as expected for a predominantly old and young population, respectively. Using the Driver et al. prescription for the azimuthally averaged photon escape fraction, the non-ellipticals are corrected for the impact of dust attenuation and the combined CSED constructed. The final results show that the Universe is currently generating (1.8 ± 0.3) × 1035 h W Mpc−3 of which (1.2 ± 0.1) × 1035 h W Mpc−3 is directly released into the inter-galactic medium and (0.6 ± 0.1) × 1035 h W Mpc−3 is reprocessed and reradiated by dust in the far-IR. Using the GAMA data and our dust model we predict the mid- and far-IR emission which agrees remarkably well with available data. We therefore provide a robust description of the pre- and post-dust attenuated energy output of the nearby Universe from 0.1 μm to 0.6 mm. The largest uncertainty in this measurement lies in the mid- and far-IR bands stemming from the dust attenuation correction and its currently poorly constrained dependence on environment, stellar mass and morphology

A systematic variation of the stellar initial mass function in early-type galaxies

Much of our knowledge of galaxies comes from analysing the radiation emitted by their stars. It depends on the stellar initial mass function (IMF) describing the distribution of stellar masses when the population formed. Consequently knowledge of the IMF is critical to virtually every aspect of galaxy evolution. More than half a century after the first IMF determination, no consensus has emerged on whether it is universal in different galaxies. Previous studies indicated that the IMF and the dark matter fraction in galaxy centres cannot be both universal, but they could not break the degeneracy between the two effects. Only recently indications were found that massive elliptical galaxies may not have the same IMF as our Milky Way. Here we report unambiguous evidence for a strong systematic variation of the IMF in early-type galaxies as a function of their stellar mass-to-light ratio, producing differences up to a factor of three in mass. This was inferred from detailed dynamical models of the two-dimensional stellar kinematics for the large Atlas3D representative sample of nearby early-type galaxies spanning two orders of magnitude in stellar mass. Our finding indicates that the IMF depends intimately on a galaxy's formation history.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX. Accepted for publication as a Nature Letter. More information about our Atlas3D project is available at http://purl.org/atlas3

Herschel-ATLAS: VISTA VIKING near-IR counterparts in the Phase 1 GAMA 9h data

We identify near-infrared Ks band counterparts to Herschel-ATLAS sub-mm sources, using a preliminary object catalogue from the VISTA VIKING survey. The sub-mm sources are selected from the H-ATLAS Phase 1 catalogue of the GAMA 9h field, which includes all objects detected at 250, 350 or 500 um with the SPIRE instrument. We apply and discuss a likelihood ratio (LR) method for VIKING candidates within a search radius of 10" of the 22,000 SPIRE sources with a 5 sigma detection at 250 um. We find that 11,294(51%) of the SPIRE sources have a best VIKING counterpart with a reliability $R\ge 0.8$, and the false identification rate of these is estimated to be 4.2%. We expect to miss ~5% of true VIKING counterparts. There is evidence from Z-J and J-Ks colours that the reliable counterparts to SPIRE galaxies are marginally redder than the field population. We obtain photometric redshifts for ~68% of all (non-stellar) VIKING candidates with a median redshift of 0.405. Comparing to the results of the optical identifications supplied with the Phase I catalogue, we find that the use of medium-deep near-infrared data improves the identification rate of reliable counterparts from 36% to 51%.Comment: 20 pages, 20 figures, 3 tables, accepted by MNRA

Galaxy and mass assembly (GAMA): A deeper view of the mass, metallicity and SFR relationships

A full appreciation of the role played by gasmetallicity (Z), star formation rate (SFR) and stellar mass (M*) is fundamental to understanding how galaxies form and evolve. The connections between these three parameters at different redshifts significantl

Galaxy and mass assembly: Resolving the role of environment in galaxy evolution

We present observations of 18 galaxies from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey made with the SPIRAL optical integral field unit (IFU) on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. The galaxies are selected to have a narrow range in stellar mass (6 × 109