The Overlooked Potential of Generalized Linear Models in Astronomy-III: Bayesian Negative Binomial Regression and Globular Cluster Populations

In this paper, the third in a series illustrating the power of generalized linear models (GLMs) for the astronomical community, we elucidate the potential of the class of GLMs which handles count data. The size of a galaxy's globular cluster population $N_{\rm GC}$ is a prolonged puzzle in the astronomical literature. It falls in the category of count data analysis, yet it is usually modelled as if it were a continuous response variable. We have developed a Bayesian negative binomial regression model to study the connection between $N_{\rm GC}$ and the following galaxy properties: central black hole mass, dynamical bulge mass, bulge velocity dispersion, and absolute visual magnitude. The methodology introduced herein naturally accounts for heteroscedasticity, intrinsic scatter, errors in measurements in both axes (either discrete or continuous), and allows modelling the population of globular clusters on their natural scale as a non-negative integer variable. Prediction intervals of 99% around the trend for expected $N_{\rm GC}$comfortably envelope the data, notably including the Milky Way, which has hitherto been considered a problematic outlier. Finally, we demonstrate how random intercept models can incorporate information of each particular galaxy morphological type. Bayesian variable selection methodology allows for automatically identifying galaxy types with different productions of GCs, suggesting that on average S0 galaxies have a GC population 35% smaller than other types with similar brightness.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Free-Range Pre-Programmed RC Car

There is a growing interest in the capabilities and utilization of autonomous vehicles. The objective of this project is to design a small scale illustration of an autonomous vehicle driven by user input. An application will be designed that will allow a user to create a track that an RC car will accurately follow. As the car follows the track, a microcontroller on the vehicle will send movement information back to the application. This information is used by the application to process where the vehicle is currently at and where it needs to go. While in motion, on-board sensors will actively detect obstacles in the path and adjust the vehicle’s direction to avoid collision

Transfer of spectral weight across the gap of Sr2IrO4 induced by La doping

We study with Angle Resolved PhotoElectron Spectroscopy (ARPES) the evolution of the electronic structure of Sr2IrO4, when holes or electrons are introduced, through Rh or La substitutions. At low dopings, the added carriers occupy the first available states, at bottom or top of the gap, revealing an anisotropic gap of 0.7eV in good agreement with STM measurements. At further doping, we observe a reduction of the gap and a transfer of spectral weight across the gap, although the quasiparticle weight remains very small. We discuss the origin of the in-gap spectral weight as a local distribution of gap values

Short small-polaron lifetime in the mixed-valence perovskite Cs2_2Au2_2I6_6 from high-pressure pump-probe experiments

We study the ultrafast phonon response of mixed-valence perovskite Cs$_2$Au$_2$I$_6$ using pump-probe spectroscopy under high-pressure in a diamond anvil cell. We observed a remarkable softening and broadening of the Au - I stretching phonon mode with both applied pressure and photoexcitation. Using a double-pump scheme we measured a lifetime of the charge transfer excitation into single valence Au$^{2+}$ of less than 4 ps, which is an indication of the local character of the Au$^{2+}$ excitation. Furthermore, the strong similarity between the pressure and fluence dependence of the phonon softening shows that the inter-valence charge transfer plays an important role in the structural transition.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

The effect of stress fracture occurring within the first 12 months of training on subsequent race performance in Thoroughbreds in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND Racehorses are at an increased risk of stress fracture within the first 12 months of racing and when resuming training after a break. Research in these high-risk periods and on the effect of performance post-recovery is limited. OBJECTIVES To describe the occurrence of stress fractures, diagnosed by nuclear scintigraphy (NS), in racehorses' first 12 months training in Hong Kong, and their impact on racing performance and career length. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective 1:2 matched case-control study. METHODS Clinical records of horses with NS-diagnosed stress fractures within 365 days of import between 2006 and 2018 were collated. Cases and controls were matched on import date. Univariable conditional logistic regression compared signalment, pre-fracture training and post-recovery racing performance between cases and matched controls. Shared Frailty Cox regression analysed time from import to fracture and total career length. RESULTS Eighty-seven horses sustained a NS-diagnosed fracture within their first year in Hong Kong (incidence risk 1.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.1%; N=5,180)). The humerus (42.0%; 95% CI 31.8-52.6%; n=39) and tibia (28.0%; 95% CI 19.1-38.2%; n=26) were most common stress fracture sites. Cases missed a median of 63 days (Interquartile range (IQR) 49-82) of training because of fracture. Within the 12 months following diagnosis, case horses had a median of four (IQR 2-4, p<0.0001) fewer race starts and were down HK$206,188 (IQR HK$0-436,800, p=0.007) in race earnings compared to controls. Career length did not significantly differ between cases and controls (median 2 years and 3 months; IQR 15.3-39.1 months; p=0.2). MAIN LIMITATIONS Only stress fractures diagnosed by NS were included, hence, the study is not representative of all stress fractures occurring in racehorses in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS Racehorses sustaining a stress fracture within one year of entering Hong Kong lost significant time in training, earnings and race starts. However, overall career length was unaffected

Changing Snow Cover and Stream Discharge in the Western United States - Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack has important implications for the management of water resources. We studied ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products, 40 years of stream discharge and meteorological station data and 30 years of snow-water equivalent (SWE) SNOw Telemetry (SNOTEL) data in the Wind River Range (WRR), Wyoming. Results show increasing air temperatures for.the 40-year study period. Discharge from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades. Changes in streamflow may be related to increasing air temperatures which are probably contributing to a reduction in snow cover, although no trend of either increasingly lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. And SWE on 1 April does not show an expected downward trend from 1980 to 2009. The extent of snow cover derived from the lowest-elevation zone of the WRR study area is strongly correlated (r=0.91) with stream discharge on 1 May during the decade of the 2000s. The strong relationship between snow cover and streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western U.S

Magnetic field driven 2D-3D crossover in the S=12 frustrated chain magnet LiCuVO4

We report on a heat-capacity study of high-quality single-crystal samples of LiCuVO4 — a frustrated spin S = 1/2 chain system—in a magnetic field amounting to 3/4 of the saturation field. A detailed examination of magnetic phase transitions observed in this field range shows that although the low-field helical state clearly has three-dimensional properties, the field-induced spin-modulated phase turns out to be quasi-two-dimensional. The model proposed in this paper allows one to qualitatively understand this crossover, thus eliminating the presently existing contradictions in the interpretations of NMR and neutron-scattering measurements

Geochronology, geochemistry and geodynamics of the Cabo de Gata volcanic zone, Southeastern Spain

© 2014 Societa Geologica Italiana, Roma. New 40Ar/39Ar ages and major and trace element geochemistry of the middle-late Miocene Cabo de Gata volcanic complex, southeast Spain, indicate that the volcanic activity of the Cabo de Gata volcanic zone developed over a short period through several pulses of geochemically and isotopically different parental magmas. The oldest volcanic rocks exposed in the Cabo de Gata volcanic zone are the shoshonite and high-K calc-Alkaline rocks of Bujo group, which cry - stallised from a parental magma transitional from calc-Alkaline to alkaline potassic generated through large degrees of partial melting, and then affected by a minor contribution from metasomatised veins and a larger one from the surrounding mantle wedge, in comparison to ultrapotassic melts. Subsequent partial melting of the mantle source produced typical calc-Alkaline parental magmas belonging to the Rodalquilar and Agua Amarga groups. Sr-Nd-Pb isotope and incompatible trace element distributions of Cabo de Gata rocks are in agreement with a mantle-wedge source affected by a two-fold metasomatism. The data suggested that mild potassic to sub-Alkaline subduction-related parental magmas (i.e., high-K calc-Alkaline and calc-Alkaline) were generated in the Cabo de Gata sector within a mantle wedge metasomatised by a fluid-dominated agent. In contrast, the enrichment in K2O of shoshonitic to ultrapotassic magmas was achieved through recycling of subducted sediments through melts that enriched the mantle wedge in K and related elements. Such a scenario can be easily reconciled with a geodynamic setting at the edge of a destructive plate margin with the subducted slab responsible for the recycling of sediments within the mantle wedge.Geochemical, petrographic and analytical work were supported by the Italian MIUR through Cofin_2004 (grants #2004040502_001 and 2004040502_002), Cofin_2008 (grants #2008HMHYFP_002 and 2008HMHYFP_004) and Cofin_2010-2011 (grants #2010TT22SC_001, 2010TT22SC_005 and 2010TT22SC_006; 2010TT22SC_003) projects, to Sandro Conticelli and Massimo Mattei, respectively. Further financial support for geochronological analyses was provided by Spanish projects CGL2009-06968-E, CGL2005-03511/BTE and HI2006-0073 to Carles C. Soriano.Peer Reviewe

Neonatal mouse gut metabolites influence Cryptosporidium parvum infection in intestinal epithelial cells

The protozoan parasit