Decadal rainfall variability modes in observed rainfall records over East Africa and their relations to historical sea surface temperature changes.

Detailed knowledge about the long-term interface of climate and rainfall variability is essential for managing agricultural activities in Eastern African countries. To this end, the space-time patterns of decadal rainfall variability modes over East Africa and their predictability potentials using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are investigated. The analysis includes observed rainfall data from 1920-2004 and global SSTs for the period 1950-2004. Simple correlation, trend and cyclical analyses, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with VARIMAX rotation and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) are employed. The results show decadal signals in filtered observed rainfall record with 10 years period during March - May (MAM) and October – December (OND) seasons. During June - August (JJA), however, cycles with 20 years period are common. Too much / little rainfall received in one or two years determines the general trend of the decadal mean rainfall. CCA results for MAM showed significant positive correlations between the VARIMAX-PCA of SST and the canonical component time series over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive loadings were spread over the coastal and Lake Victoria regions while negative loading over the rest of the region with significant canonical correlation skills. For the JJA seasons, Atlantic SSTs had negative loadings centred on the tropical western Atlantic Ocean associated with the wet / dry regimes over western / eastern sectors. The highest canonical correlation skill between OND rainfall and the Pacific SSTs showed that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/La Niña phases are associated with wet/dry decades over the region

The influence of low frequency sea surface temperature modes on delineated decadal rainfall zones in Eastern Africa region

Influence of low frequency global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) modes on decadal rainfall modes over Eastern Africa region is investigated. Fore-knowledge of rainfall distribution at decadal time scale in specific zones is critical for planning purposes. Both rainfall and SST data that covers a period of 1950–2008 were subjected to a ‘low-pass filter’ in order to suppress the high frequency oscillations. VARIMAX-Rotated Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) was employed to delineate the region into decadal rainfall zones while Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) techniques was used to examine potential linkages of these zones to various areas of the tropical global oceans. Ten-year distinct decadal signals, significant at 95% confidence level, are dominant when observed in-situ rainfall time series are subjected to spectral analysis. The presence of variability at El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related timescales, combined with influences in the 10–12 year and 16–20 year bands were also prevalent. Nine and seven homogeneous decadal rainfall zones for long rainfall season i.e. March-May (MAM) and the short rainfall season i.e. October-December (OND), respectively, are delineated. The third season of June–August (JJA), which is mainly experienced in western and Coastal sub-regions had eight homogenous zones delineated. The forcing of decadal rainfall in the region is linked to the equatorial central Pacific Ocean, the tropical and South Atlantic Oceans, and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high variability of these modes highlighted the significant roles of all the global oceans in forcing decadal rainfall variability over the region

West African monsoon 2012

Living up to its reputation as a highly variable climate system, the West African Monsoon (WAM) 2012 contrasted strikingly with the previous year. In 2011, the West African rainy season was delayed, patchy, and irregular. In 2012, whilst it was anomalously wet in many area, the Guinea coastal countries and some crucial agricultural regions remained very dry, persisting from the previous year. As a result, 2012 generated the third big food crisis to hit the region in the last seven years. The 2012 WAM forecast, observed climate conditions and the ongoing socio-economic implications for the region are reviewed here

Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Eastern Africa Rainfall

This study evaluates the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall patterns over eastern Africa. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and interannual variability of RCM output have been assessed over three homogeneous subregions against a number of observational datasets. The ability of the RCMs in simulating large-scale global climate forcing signals is further assessed by compositing the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. It is found that most RCMs reasonably simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology over the three subregions and also reproduce the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO and IOD forcings. At the same time the analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on subregion and season; however, the ensemble mean has better agreement with observation than individual models. In general, the analysis herein demonstrates that the multimodel ensemble mean simulates eastern Africa rainfall adequately and can therefore be used for the assessment of future climate projections for the region

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Reporting guideline for the early stage clinical evaluation of decision support systems driven by artificial intelligence: DECIDE-AI

A growing number of artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support systems are showing promising performance in preclinical, in silico, evaluation, but few have yet demonstrated real benefit to patient care. Early stage clinical evaluation is important to assess an AI system’s actual clinical performance at small scale, ensure its safety, evaluate the human factors surrounding its use, and pave the way to further large scale trials. However, the reporting of these early studies remains inadequate. The present statement provides a multistakeholder, consensus-based reporting guideline for the Developmental and Exploratory Clinical Investigations of DEcision support systems driven by Artificial Intelligence (DECIDE-AI). We conducted a two round, modified Delphi process to collect and analyse expert opinion on the reporting of early clinical evaluation of AI systems. Experts were recruited from 20 predefined stakeholder categories. The final composition and wording of the guideline was determined at a virtual consensus meeting. The checklist and the Explanation & Elaboration (E&E) sections were refined based on feedback from a qualitative evaluation process. 123 experts participated in the first round of Delphi, 138 in the second, 16 in the consensus meeting, and 16 in the qualitative evaluation. The DECIDE-AI reporting guideline comprises 17 AI specific reporting items (made of 28 subitems) and 10 generic reporting items, with an E&E paragraph provided for each. Through consultation and consensus with a range of stakeholders, we have developed a guideline comprising key items that should be reported in early stage clinical studies of AI-based decision support systems in healthcare. By providing an actionable checklist of minimal reporting items, the DECIDE-AI guideline will facilitate the appraisal of these studies and replicability of their findings

Learning from 10 years of climate outlook forums in Africa

As new projects and programs are proposed to promote climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Africa, it is important to learn from the successes and failures of the Climate Outlook Forums