Quantifying methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the UK and Ireland using a national-scale monitoring network

The UK is one of several countries around the world that has enacted legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present top-down emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the UK and Ireland over the period August 2012 to August 2014. These emissions were inferred using measurements from a network of four sites around the two countries. We used a hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework to infer fluxes as well as a set of covariance parameters that describe uncertainties in the system. We inferred average UK total emissions of 2.09 (1.65–2.67) Tg yr−1 CH4 and 0.101 (0.068–0.150) Tg yr−1 N2O and found our derived UK estimates to be generally lower than the a priori emissions, which consisted primarily of anthropogenic sources and with a smaller contribution from natural sources. We used sectoral distributions from the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) to determine whether these discrepancies can be attributed to specific source sectors. Because of the distinct distributions of the two dominant CH4 emissions sectors in the UK, agriculture and waste, we found that the inventory may be overestimated in agricultural CH4 emissions. We found that annual mean N2O emissions were consistent with both the prior and the anthropogenic inventory but we derived a significant seasonal cycle in emissions. This seasonality is likely due to seasonality in fertilizer application and in environmental drivers such as temperature and rainfall, which are not reflected in the annual resolution inventory. Through the hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework, we quantified uncertainty covariance parameters and emphasized their importance for high-resolution emissions estimation. We inferred average model errors of approximately 20 and 0.4 ppb and correlation timescales of 1.0 (0.72–1.43) and 2.6 (1.9–20 3.9) days for CH4 and N2O, respectively. These errors are a combination of transport model errors as well as errors due to unresolved emissions processes in the inventory. We found the largest CH4 errors at the Tacolneston station in eastern England, which may be due to sporadic emissions from landfills and offshore gas in the North Sea

Results of a pilot cluster randomised trial of the use of a Medication Review Tool for people taking antipsychotic medication

BACKGROUND: Government policy encourages increasing involvement of patients in their long-term care. This paper describes the development and pilot evaluation of a 'Medication Review Tool' designed to assist people to participate more effectively in discussions about antipsychotic drug treatment. METHODS: The Medication Review Tool developed consisted of a form to help patients identify pros and cons of their current antipsychotic treatment and any desired changes. It was associated with a website containing information and links about antipsychotics. For the trial, participants diagnosed with psychotic disorders were recruited from community mental health services. Cluster randomisation was used to allocate health professionals (care co-ordinators) and their associated patients to use of the Medication Review Tool or usual care. All participants had a medical consultation scheduled, and those in the intervention group completed the Medication Review Tool, with the help of their health professional prior to this, and took the completed Form into the consultation. Two follow-up interviews were conducted up to three months after the consultation. The principal outcome was the Decision Self Efficacy Scale (DSES). Qualitative feedback was collected from patients in the intervention group. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty patients were screened, sixty patients were randomised, 51 completed the first follow-up assessment and 49 completed the second. Many patients were not randomised due to the timing of their consultation, and involvement of health professionals was inconsistent. There was no difference between the groups on the DSES (-4.16 95 % CI -9.81, 1.49), symptoms, side effects, antipsychotic doses or patient satisfaction. Scores on the Medication Adherence Questionnaire indicated an increase in participants' reported inclination to adherence in the intervention group (coefficient adjusted for baseline values -0.44; 95 % CI -0.76, -0.11), and there was a small increase in positive attitudes to antipsychotic medication (Drug Attitude Inventory, adjusted coefficient 1.65; 95 % CI -0.09, 3.40). Qualitative feedback indicated patients valued the Tool for identifying both positive and negative aspects of drug treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The trial demonstrated the design was feasible, although challenges included service re-configurations and maintaining health professional involvement. Results may indicate a more intensive and sustained intervention is required to facilitate participation in decision-making for this group of patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN12055530 , Retrospectively registered 9/12/2013

Machine Learning for Stochastic Parameterization: Generative Adversarial Networks in the Lorenz '96 Model

Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant structural assumptions that can limit their scalability. Machine learning models, including neural networks, are able to represent a wide range of distributions and build optimized mappings between a large number of inputs and sub-grid forcings. Recent research on machine learning parameterizations has focused only on deterministic parameterizations. In this study, we develop a stochastic parameterization using the generative adversarial network (GAN) machine learning framework. The GAN stochastic parameterization is trained and evaluated on output from the Lorenz '96 model, which is a common baseline model for evaluating both parameterization and data assimilation techniques. We evaluate different ways of characterizing the input noise for the model and perform model runs with the GAN parameterization at weather and climate timescales. Some of the GAN configurations perform better than a baseline bespoke parameterization at both timescales, and the networks closely reproduce the spatio-temporal correlations and regimes of the Lorenz '96 system. We also find that in general those models which produce skillful forecasts are also associated with the best climate simulations.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES

A qualitative exploration of family members' perspectives on reducing and discontinuing antipsychotic medication

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are routinely prescribed to people diagnosed with schizophrenia or psychosis on a long-term basis. Considerable literature explores service users' opinions and experiences of antipsychotics, but studies investigating family members' views are lacking. AIMS: To explore family members' perspectives on antipsychotics, particularly their views on long-term use, reduction and discontinuation of antipsychotics. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 family members of people experiencing psychosis. Participants were recruited through community support groups and mental health teams. Interviews were analysed thematically. RESULTS: The majority of family members valued antipsychotic medication primarily in supporting what they saw as a fragile stability in the person they cared for. Their views of medication were ambivalent, combining concerns about adverse effects with a belief in the importance of medication due to fears of relapse. They described a need for constant vigilance in relation to medication to ensure it was taken consistently, and often found changes, particularly reduction in medication difficult to contemplate. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight that family members' attitudes to medication sometimes conflict with those of the people they care for, impacting on their health and the caring relationship. Family members may need more support and could be usefully involved in medication decision-making

“Tales and Adventures”: G.A. Henty’s Union Jack and the Competitive World of Publishing for Boys in the 1880s’

In the competitive publishing environment of the late nineteenth century, writers and magazines had to distinguish themselves carefully from potential rivals. This article examines how G.A. Henty’s quality boys’ weekly, Union Jack (1880-83), attempted to secure a niche in the juvenile publishing market by deliberately distinguishing itself from other papers as a literary, imperialist and “healthy” publication. The article explores the design and marketing techniques of the magazine, its status as a fiction paper, the high calibre of its contributors, and its aggressive rhetoric in targeting an exclusively masculine audience. It argues that while Union Jack was marketed as a niche publication, it eventually failed to distinguish itself sufficiently to survive in an extremely competitive environment

TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 2:Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

This study examines N2O emission estimates from five different atmospheric inversion frameworks based on chemistry transport models (CTMs). The five frameworks differ in the choice of CTM, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation data set. The posterior modelled atmospheric N2O mole fractions are compared to observations to assess the performance of the inversions and to help diagnose problems in the modelled transport. Additionally, the mean emissions for 2006 to 2008 are compared in terms of the spatial distribution and seasonality. Overall, there is a good agreement among the inversions for the mean global total emission, which ranges from 16.1 to 18.7 TgN yr(-1) and is consistent with previous estimates. Ocean emissions represent between 31 and 38% of the global total compared to widely varying previous estimates of 24 to 38%. Emissions from the northern mid- to high latitudes are likely to be more important, with a consistent shift in emissions from the tropics and subtropics to the mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; the emission ratio for 0-30A degrees N to 30-90A degrees N ranges from 1.5 to 1.9 compared with 2.9 to 3.0 in previous estimates. The largest discrepancies across inversions are seen for the regions of South and East Asia and for tropical and South America owing to the poor observational constraint for these areas and to considerable differences in the modelled transport, especially inter-hemispheric exchange rates and tropical convective mixing. Estimates of the seasonal cycle in N2O emissions are also sensitive to errors in modelled stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in the tropics and southern extratropics. Overall, the results show a convergence in the global and regional emissions compared to previous independent studies

A systematic review of social functioning outcome measures in schizophrenia with a focus on suitability for intervention research

Social functioning is an important part of recovery and a key treatment target in clinical research in schizophrenia. Evaluating and comparing interventions is challenged by the choice of many measures which focus on different aspects of functioning, with little to guide selection. This results in difficulties comparing outcomes of treatment where studies have used different measures. To improve the measurement of social functioning in intervention research, we aimed to provide practical information on suitability of measures. We conducted a systematic review of measures developed or psychometrically evaluated since 2007, and assessed and discussed the structure, content, quality, and the use of the measures in intervention research. Thirty-two measures of social functioning and 22 validation papers were identified. Measures included structured questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and assessment of performance on specific tasks. The content of measures was organised into eight categories, which are in order of frequency with which they were covered by measures: activities of daily living, productive activity, relationships, leisure activities, cognition, anti-social behaviour, psychosis symptoms and self-esteem and empowerment. In terms of quality, most measures were rated as moderate, with the Personal and Social Performance Scale gaining the highest rating. However, there was little data on responsiveness of measures, or how they compare to objective or ‘real-world’ indicators of functioning. The Social Functioning Scale and Personal and Social Performance Scale have been most frequently used in intervention studies to date. Future research should aim to provide further data on psychometric properties relevant to intervention research

Experiences of taking neuroleptic medication and impacts on symptoms, sense of self and agency: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative data

Purpose: Neuroleptic (antipsychotic) drugs reduce psychotic symptoms, but how they achieve these effects and how the drugs’ effects are experienced by people who take them are less well understood. The present study describes a synthesis of qualitative data about mental and behavioural alterations associated with taking neuroleptics and how these interact with symptoms of psychosis and people’s sense of self and agency. Methods: Nine databases were searched to identify qualitative literature concerning experiences of taking neuroleptic medication. A thematic synthesis was conducted. Results: Neuroleptics were commonly experienced as producing a distinctive state of lethargy, cognitive slowing, emotional blunting and reduced motivation, which impaired functioning but also had beneficial effects on symptoms of psychosis and some other symptoms (e.g. insomnia). For some people, symptom reduction helped restore a sense of normality and autonomy, but others experienced a loss of important aspects of their personality. Across studies, many people adopted a passive stance towards long-term medication, expressing a sense of resignation, endurance or loss of autonomy. Conclusions: Neuroleptic drugs modify cognition, emotions and motivation. These effects may be associated with reducing the intensity and impact of symptoms, but also affect people’s sense of self and agency. Understanding how the effects of neuroleptics are experienced by those who take them is important in developing a more collaborative approach to drug treatment in psychosis and schizophreni