Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

New range limits of the sun-tailed monkey, Cercopithecus solatus, in Central Gabon

Cercopithecus solatus is a recently discovered monkey endemic to Gabon, present in parts of the Lopé National Park and the Forêt des Abeilles in the center of the country. It is listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List (2010) due to its restricted extent of occurrence and continuing decline in population caused by high hunting pressure. All known field observations of this species are compiled here. Data collected since 1999 show that C. solatus occurs further to the south, east, and west than was previously known, and that its extent of occurrence almost certainly includes three national parks, rather than one

Primates in peril: the significance of Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for global primate conservation

Primates occur in 90 countries, but four—Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—harbor 65% of the world’s primate species (439) and 60% of these primates are Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2017-3). Considering their importance for global primate conservation, we examine the anthropogenic pressures each country is facing that place their primate populations at risk. Habitat loss and fragmentation are main threats to primates in Brazil, Madagascar and Indonesia. However, in DRC hunting for the commercial bushmeat trade is the primary threat. Encroachment on primate habitats driven by local and global market demands for food and non-food commodities hunting, illegal trade, the proliferation of invasive species, and human and domestic-animal borne infectious diseases cause habitat loss, population declines, and extirpation. Modeling agricultural expansion in the 21st century for the four countries under a worst-case-scenario, showed a primate range contraction of 78% for Brazil, 72% for Indonesia 62% for Madagascar and 32% for DRC. These pressures unfold in the context of expanding human populations with low levels of development. Weak governance across these four countries may limit effective primate conservation planning. We examine landscape and local approaches to effective primate conservation policies and assess the distribution of protected areas and primates in each country. P rimates in Brazil and Madagascar have 38% of their range inside protected areas, 17% in Indonesia and 14% in DRC, suggesting that the great majority of primate populations remain vulnerable. We list the key challenges faced by the four countries to avert primate extinctions now and in the future. In the short term, effective law enforcement to stop illegal hunting and illegal forest destruction is absolutely key. Long-term success can only be achieved by focusing local and global public awareness, actively engaging with international organizations, multinational businesses and consumer nations to reduce unsustainable demands on the environment. Finally, the four primate range states need to ensure that integrated, sustainable land-use planning for economic development includes the maintenance of biodiversity and intact, functional natural ecosystems

Impacts of Taking, Trade and Consumption of Terrestrial Migratory Species for Wild Meat

This study looks for the first time at the extent to which terrestrial animals protected by the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) are being impacted by wild meat taking, trade and consumption. It contributes to the implementation of a decision adopted by the CMS Conference of the Parties in 2020 (CMS Decision 13.109). We assessed the direct and indirect impacts of wild meat taking, trade and consumption of 105 terrestrial mammal species listed in the CMS Appendices I and II and relevant CMS daughter agreements and initiatives. We first used a systematic review of the published literature, global database searches and the IUCN Red List to determine which CMS species are affected by wild meat hunting. We then reviewed the legislation applicable to the regulation of wild meat hunting and trade and explored the application of hunting legislation using a national case study example. Finally, we examined the known linkages between zoonotic diseases and wild meat use and trade

Length of Stay After Childbirth in 92 Countries and Associated Factors in 30 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Compilation of Reported Data and a Cross-sectional Analysis from Nationally Representative Surveys

Background: Following childbirth, women need to stay sufficiently long in health facilities to receive adequate care. Little is known about length of stay following childbirth in low- and middle-income countries or its determinants. Methods and Findings: We described length of stay after facility delivery in 92 countries. We then created a conceptual framework of the main drivers of length of stay, and explored factors associated with length of stay in 30 countries using multivariable linear regression. Finally, we used multivariable logistic regression to examine the factors associated with stays that were “too short” (<24 h for vaginal deliveries and <72 h for cesarean-section deliveries). Across countries, the mean length of stay ranged from 1.3 to 6.6 d: 0.5 to 6.2 d for singleton vaginal deliveries and 2.5 to 9.3 d for cesarean-section deliveries. The percentage of women staying too short ranged from 0.2% to 83% for vaginal deliveries and from 1% to 75% for cesarean-section deliveries. Our conceptual framework identified three broad categories of factors that influenced length of stay: need-related determinants that required an indicated extension of stay, and health-system and woman/family dimensions that were drivers of inappropriately short or long stays. The factors identified as independently important in our regression analyses included cesarean-section delivery, birthweight, multiple birth, and infant survival status. Older women and women whose infants were delivered by doctors had extended lengths of stay, as did poorer women. Reliance on factors captured in secondary data that were self-reported by women up to 5 y after a live birth was the main limitation. Conclusions: Length of stay after childbirth is very variable between countries. Substantial proportions of women stay too short to receive adequate postnatal care. We need to ensure that facilities have skilled birth attendants and effective elements of care, but also that women stay long enough to benefit from these. The challenge is to commit to achieving adequate lengths of stay in low- and middle-income countries, while ensuring any additional time is used to provide high-quality and respectful care

A Fiber-Optic Fluorescence Microscope Using a Consumer-Grade Digital Camera for In Vivo Cellular Imaging

BACKGROUND: Early detection is an essential component of cancer management. Unfortunately, visual examination can often be unreliable, and many settings lack the financial capital and infrastructure to operate PET, CT, and MRI systems. Moreover, the infrastructure and expense associated with surgical biopsy and microscopy are a challenge to establishing cancer screening/early detection programs in low-resource settings. Improvements in performance and declining costs have led to the availability of optoelectronic components, which can be used to develop low-cost diagnostic imaging devices for use at the point-of-care. Here, we demonstrate a fiber-optic fluorescence microscope using a consumer-grade camera for in vivo cellular imaging. METHODS: The fiber-optic fluorescence microscope includes an LED light, an objective lens, a fiber-optic bundle, and a consumer-grade digital camera. The system was used to image an oral cancer cell line labeled with 0.01% proflavine. A human tissue specimen was imaged following surgical resection, enabling dysplastic and cancerous regions to be evaluated. The oral mucosa of a healthy human subject was imaged in vivo, following topical application of 0.01% proflavine. FINDINGS: The fiber-optic microscope resolved individual nuclei in all specimens and tissues imaged. This capability allowed qualitative and quantitative differences between normal and precancerous or cancerous tissues to be identified. The optical efficiency of the system permitted imaging of the human oral mucosa in real time. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate this device as a useful tool to assist in the identification of early neoplastic changes in epithelial tissues. This portable, inexpensive unit may be particularly appropriate for use at the point-of-care in low-resource settings

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions: Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad

Molecular DNA identity of the mouflon of Cyprus (Ovis orientalis ophion, Bovidae): Near Eastern origin and divergence from Western Mediterranean conspecific populations

The mouflon population of Cyprus (Ovis orientalis ophion) comprises historically preserved feral descendants of sheep domesticated during the Neolithic. We determined genetic identity of this taxon in order to elucidate its systematic placement and enforce its protection. We used 12 loci of microsatellite DNA to infer genetic relationships between the Cypriot mouflon and either long-time isolated (Corsica, Sardinia) or recently introduced (central Italy) European mouflons (O. o. musimon). We also sequenced the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) Cytochrome-b gene to infer the origin of the Cypriot mouflon including many National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) entries of European and Near Eastern conspecifics. Microsatellites disclosed net divergence between Western Mediterranean and Cypriot mouflon. The latter was included in the highly heterogeneous Near Eastern O. orientalis mtDNA group, Iran representing the most credited region as the source for its ancient introduction to Cyprus. Both international and national legislation protect the mouflon of Cyprus as a wild taxon (O. o. ophion). However, the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and NCBI include the Cypriot mouflon as subspecies of its respective domestic species, the sheep (O. aries). Unfortunately, people charged with crime against protected mouflon may benefit from such taxonomic inconsistency between legislation and databases, as the latter can frustrate molecular DNA forensic outcomes. Until a definitive light can be shed on Near Eastern O. orientalis systematics, we suggest that the Cypriot mouflon should be unvaryingly referred to as O. o. ophion in order not to impair conservation in the country where it resides

Nationwide abundance and distribution of African forest elephants across Gabon using non-invasive SNP genotyping

Robust monitoring programs are essential for understanding changes in wildlife population dynamics and distribution over time, especially for species of conservation concern. In this study, we applied a rapid non-invasive sampling approach to the Critically Endangered African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), at nationwide scale in its principal remaining population strongholds in Gabon. We used a species-specific customized genetic panel and spatial capture-recapture (SCR) approach, which gave a snapshot of current abundance and density distribution of forest elephants across the country. We estimated mean forest elephant density at 0.38 (95% Confidence Interval 0.24–0.52) per km2 from 18 surveyed sites. We confirm that Gabon is the main forest elephant stronghold, both in terms of estimated population size: 95,110 (95% CI 58,872–131,349) and spatial distribution (250,782 km2). Predicted elephant densities were highest in relatively flat areas with a high proportion of suitable habitat not in proximity to the national border. Protected areas and human pressure were not strong predictors of elephant densities in this study. Our nationwide systematic survey of forest elephants of Gabon serves as a proof-of-concept of application of noninvasive genetic sampling for rigorous population monitoring at large spatial scales. To our knowledge, it is the first nationwide DNA-based assessment of a free-ranging large mammal in Africa. Our findings offer a useful national baseline and status update for forest elephants in Gabon. It will inform adaptive management and stewardship of elephants and forests in the most important national forest elephant stronghold in Africa