Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy

AbstractBackgroundThe Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden.MethodsWe develop an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. We explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve measles control in selected countries and two Indian states with high measles burden. Specifically, we compute the maximum allowable time period between two consecutive SIAs to achieve measles control.ResultsOur analysis indicates that a single SIA will not control measles transmission in any of the countries with high measles burden. However, regular SIAs at high coverage levels are a viable strategy to prevent measles outbreaks. The periodicity of SIAs differs between countries and even within a single country, and is determined by population demographics and existing routine immunization coverage.ConclusionsOur analysis can guide country policymakers deciding on the optimal scheduling of SIA campaigns and the best combination of routine and SIA vaccination to control measles

Risk Model Development and Validation for Prediction of Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease in a North American Population.

Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age <6 months, Asian race, and C-reactive protein ≥13 mg/ dL (c=0.82 in the development cohort, c=0.93 in the validation cohort). The CAA risk score assigned 2 points for baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0 and 1 point for each of the other variables, with creation of low- (0-1), moderate- (2), and high- (3-5) risk groups. The odds of CAA s were 16-fold greater in the high- versus the low-risk groups in the development cohort (odds ratio, 16.4; 95% CI , 9.71-27.7 [ P<0.001]), and >40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P<0.001]). Conclusions Our risk model for CAA in Kawasaki disease consisting of baseline demographic, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables had excellent predictive utility and should undergo prospective testing

Treatment Intensification in Patients With Kawasaki Disease and Coronary Aneurysm at Diagnosis.

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAA) are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) within 10 days of fever onset reduces the risk of CAA from 25% to <5%. Corticosteroids and infliximab are often used in high-risk patients or those with CAA at diagnosis, but there are no data on their longer-term impact on CAA.MethodsRetrospective multicenter study including children who had CAA with a z score ≥2.5 and <10 at time of diagnosis and who received primary therapy with IVIg alone or in combination with either corticosteroids or infliximab within 10 days of onset of fever.ResultsOf 121 children, with a median age of 2.8 (range 0.1-15.5) years, 30 (25%) received primary therapy with corticosteroids and IVIg, 58 (48%) received primary therapy with infliximab and IVIg, and 33 (27%) received primary therapy with IVIg only. Median coronary z scores at the time of diagnosis did not differ among treatment groups (P = .39). Primary treatment intensification with either corticosteroids or infliximab were independent protective factors against progression of coronary size on follow-up (coefficient: -1.31 [95% confidence interval: -2.33 to -0.29]; coefficient: -1.07 [95% confidence interval: -1.95 to -0.19], respectively).ConclusionsAmong a high-risk group of patients with Kawasaki disease with CAA on baseline echocardiography, those treated with corticosteroids or infliximab in addition to IVIg had less progression in CAA size compared with those treated with IVIg alone. Prospective randomized trials are needed to determine the best adjunctive treatment of patients who present with CAA

Comparing the effects of two inhaled glucocorticoids on allergen-induced bronchoconstriction and markers of systemic effects, a randomised cross-over double-blind study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inhaled glucocorticoids are efficient in protecting against asthma exacerbations, but methods to compare their efficacy vs systemic effects have only been attempted in larger multi-centre studies. The aim of the current study was therefore to directly compare the effects of two separate inhaled glucocorticoids, mometasone and budesonide, to compare the effects on the early and late asthmatic responses to inhaled allergen in patients with mild allergic asthma, and sputum eosinophils, and to relate the clinical positive effects to any systemic effects observed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twelve patients with documented early and late asthmatic responses (EAR and LAR) to inhaled allergen at a screening visit were randomized in a double-blind fashion to treatment with mometasone (200 μg × 2 or 400 μg × 2), budesonide (400 μg × 2) or placebo in a double-blind crossover fashion for a period of seven days. Challenge with the total allergen dose causing both an EAR and LAR was given on the last day of treatment taken in the morning. Lung function was assessed using FEV1, and systemic glucocorticoid activity was quantified using 24 h urinary cortisol.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mometasone and budesonide attenuate both EAR and LAR to allergen to a similar degree. No significant dose-related effects on the lung function parameters were observed. Both treatments reduced the relative amount of sputum eosinophils (%) after allergen. At the dose of 800 μg daily, mometasone reduced 24 h urinary cortisol by approximately 35%. Both drugs were well tolerated.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Mometasone and budesonide are equieffective in reducing early and late asthmatic responses induced by inhaled allergen challenge. Mometasone 800 μg given for seven days partially affects the HPA axis.</p

Extremely short-length surface plasmon resonance sensors

The impact of the system design on the control of coupling between planar waveguide modes and surface plasmon polaritons (SPP) is analyzed. We examine how the efficiency of the coupling can be enhanced by an appropriate dimensioning of a multi-layer device structure without using additional gratings. We demonstrate that by proper design the length of the device can be dramatically reduced through fabrication a surface plasmon resonance sensor based on the SPP-photon transformation rather then on SPP dissipation

The DRIFT Dark Matter Experiments

The current status of the DRIFT (Directional Recoil Identification From Tracks) experiment at Boulby Mine is presented, including the latest limits on the WIMP spin-dependent cross-section from 1.5 kg days of running with a mixture of CS2 and CF4. Planned upgrades to DRIFT IId are detailed, along with ongoing work towards DRIFT III, which aims to be the world's first 10 m3-scale directional Dark Matter detector.Comment: Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 201

The consequences of tobacco tax on household health and fi nances in rich and poor smokers in China: an extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis

Background In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately aff ecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across diff erent wealth quintiles) of a specifi c excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both fi nancial and health outcomes. Methods We use extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefi ts (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net fi nancial consequences for households, and the fi nancial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of –0·38, which is assumed to vary from –0·64 in the poorest quintile to –0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. Findings Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194–268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616–781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232–505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (–$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by$24·0 billion ($17·3–26·3 billion, 28 income quintile). Finally, it would provide fi nancial risk protection worth$1·8 billion ($1·2–2·3 billion), mainly concentrated (74%) in the lowest income quintile. Interpretation Increased tobacco taxation can be a pro-poor policy instrument that brings substantial health and fi nancial benefi ts to households in China

Virtual screening for inhibitors of the human TSLP:TSLPR interaction

The pro-inflammatory cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of various allergy disorders that are mediated by type 2 helper T cell (Th2) responses, such as asthma and atopic dermatitis. TSLP forms a ternary complex with the TSLP receptor (TSLPR) and the interleukin-7-receptor subunit alpha (IL-7Ra), thereby activating a signaling cascade that culminates in the release of pro-inflammatory mediators. In this study, we conducted an in silico characterization of the TSLP: TSLPR complex to investigate the drugability of this complex. Two commercially available fragment libraries were screened computationally for possible inhibitors and a selection of fragments was subsequently tested in vitro. The screening setup consisted of two orthogonal assays measuring TSLP binding to TSLPR: a BLI-based assay and a biochemical assay based on a TSLP: alkaline phosphatase fusion protein. Four fragments pertaining to diverse chemical classes were identified to reduce TSLP: TSLPR complex formation to less than 75% in millimolar concentrations. We have used unbiased molecular dynamics simulations to develop a Markov state model that characterized the binding pathway of the most interesting compound. This work provides a proof-ofprinciple for use of fragments in the inhibition of TSLP: TSLPR complexation