Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa

Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25C,the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29C and 34C, about 3C and 7C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 298C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 308C. Small temperature increases (less than 28C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 338C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: Persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history. Methodology/Principal Findings: Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3–24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0–4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies. Conclusions/Significance: Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background: Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts. Methods: We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species. Results: S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks. Conclusions: The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination

Randomised controlled trial of adjunctive inspiratory muscle training for patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate whether adjunctive inspiratory muscle training (IMT) can enhance the well-established benefits of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) in patients with COPD. METHODS: 219 patients with COPD (FEV1: 42%±16% predicted) with inspiratory muscle weakness (PImax: 51±15 cm H2O) were randomised into an intervention group (IMT+PR; n=110) or a control group (Sham-IMT+PR; n=109) in this double-blind, multicentre randomised controlled trial between February 2012 and October 2016 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01397396). Improvement in 6 min walking distance (6MWD) was a priori defined as the primary outcome. Prespecified secondary outcomes included respiratory muscle function and endurance cycling time. FINDINGS: No significant differences between the intervention group (n=89) and the control group (n=85) in improvements in 6MWD were observed (0.3 m, 95% CI -13 to 14, p=0.967). Patients who completed assessments in the intervention group achieved larger gains in inspiratory muscle strength (effect size: 1.07, p<0.001) and endurance (effect size: 0.79, p<0.001) than patients in the control group. 75 s additional improvement in endurance cycling time (95% CI 1 to 149, p=0.048) and significant reductions in Borg dyspnoea score at isotime during the cycling test (95% CI -1.5 to -0.01, p=0.049) were observed in the intervention group. INTERPRETATION: Improvements in respiratory muscle function after adjunctive IMT did not translate into additional improvements in 6MWD (primary outcome). Additional gains in endurance time and reductions in symptoms of dyspnoea were observed during an endurance cycling test (secondary outcome) TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01397396; Results

Anonymity and Rewards in Peer Rating Systems

When peers rate each other, they may choose to rate inaccurately in order to boost their own reputation or unfairly lower another’s. This could be successfully mitigated by having a reputation server incentivise accurate ratings with a reward. However, assigning rewards becomes a challenge when ratings are anonymous, since the reputation server cannot tell which peers to reward for rating accurately. To address this, we propose an anonymous peer rating system in which users can be rewarded for accurate ratings, and we formally define its model and security requirements. In our system ratings are rewarded in batches, so that users claiming their rewards only reveal they authored one in this batch of ratings. To ensure the anonymity set of rewarded users is not reduced, we also split the reputation server into two entities, the Rewarder, who knows which ratings are rewarded, and the Reputation Holder, who knows which users were rewarded. We give a provably secure construction satisfying all the security properties required. For our construction we use a modification of a Direct Anonymous Attestation scheme to ensure that peers can prove their own reputation when rating others, and that multiple feedback on the same subject can be detected. We then use Linkable Ring Signatures to enable peers to be rewarded for their accurate ratings, while still ensuring that ratings are anonymous. Our work results in a system which allows for accurate ratings to be rewarded, whilst still providing anonymity of ratings with respect to the central entities managing the system

Herbivore-induced terpenoid emission in Medicago truncatula: concerted action of jasmonate, ethylene and calcium signaling

Plant volatiles emitted by Medicago truncatula in response to feeding larvae of Spodoptera exigua are composed of a complex blend of terpenoids. The cDNAs of three terpene synthases (TPSs), which contribute to the blend of terpenoids, were cloned from M. truncatula. Their functional characterization proved MtTPS1 to be a β-caryophyllene synthase and MtTPS5 to be a multi-product sesquiterpene synthase. MtTPS3 encodes a bifunctional enzyme producing (E)-nerolidol and geranyllinalool (precursors of C11 and C16 homoterpenes) from different prenyl diphosphates serving as substrates. The addition of jasmonic acid (JA) induced expression of the TPS genes, but terpenoid emission was higher from plants treated with JA and the ethylene precursor 1-amino-cyclopropyl-1-carboxylic acid. Compared to infested wild-type M. truncatula plants, lower amounts of various sesquiterpenes and a C11–homoterpene were released from an ethylene-insensitive mutant skl. This difference coincided with lower transcript levels of MtTPS5 and of 1-deoxy-d-xylulose-5-phosphate synthase (MtDXS2) in the damaged skl leaves. Moreover, ethephon, an ethylene-releasing compound, modified the extent and mode of the herbivore-stimulated Ca2+ variations in the cytoplasm that is necessary for both JA and terpene biosynthesis. Thus, ethylene contributes to the herbivory-induced terpenoid biosynthesis at least twice: by modulating both early signaling events such as cytoplasmic Ca2+-influx and the downstream JA-dependent biosynthesis of terpenoids

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

Background: In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum sensu lato be carefully considered. Methods: We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates. Results: The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles. Conclusions: Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease

Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

The effect of regular walks on various health aspects in older people with dementia: protocol of a randomized-controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity has proven to be beneficial for physical functioning, cognition, depression, anxiety, rest-activity rhythm, quality of life (QoL), activities of daily living (ADL) and pain in older people. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of walking regularly on physical functioning, the progressive cognitive decline, level of depression, anxiety, rest-activity rhythm, QoL, ADL and pain in older people with dementia.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>This study is a longitudinal randomized controlled, single blind study. Ambulatory older people with dementia, who are regular visitors of daily care or living in a home for the elderly or nursing home in the Netherlands, will be randomly allocated to the experimental or control condition. Participants of the experimental group make supervised walks of 30 minutes a day, 5 days a week, as part of their daily nursing care. Participants of the control group will come together three times a week for tea or other sedentary activities to control for possible positive effects of social interaction. All dependent variables will be assessed at baseline and after 6 weeks, and 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months of intervention.</p> <p>The dependent variables include neuropsychological tests to assess cognition, physical tests to determine physical functioning, questionnaires to assess ADL, QoL, level of depression and anxiety, actigraphy to assess rest-activity rhythm and pain scales to determine pain levels. Potential moderating variables at baseline are: socio-demographic characteristics, body mass index, subtype of dementia, apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype, medication use and comorbidities.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study evaluates the effect of regular walking as a treatment for older people with dementia. The strength of this study is that 1) it has a longitudinal design with multiple repeated measurements, 2) we assess many different health aspects, 3) the intervention is not performed by research staff, but by nursing staff which enables it to become a routine in usual care. Possible limitations of the study are that 1) only active minded institutions are willing to participate creating a selection bias, 2) the drop-out rate will be high in this population, 3) not all participants will be able to perform/understand all tests.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=1482">NTR1482</a></p