Changes in seed dispersal processes and the potential for between-patch connectivity for an arid land daisy

Dispersal is a major and critical process in population biology that has been particularly challenging to study. Animals can have major roles in seed dispersal even in species that do not appear specifically adapted to animal-aided dispersal. This can occur by two processes: direct movement of diaspores by animals and modification of landscape characteristics by animals in ways that greatly influence dispersal. We exploited the production of large, persistent dispersal structures (seed heads, henceforth) by Erodiophyllum elderi (Asteraceae), a daisy from arid Australia, to further understand secondary dispersal. Seed head dispersal on and off animal tracks in eight E. elderi patches was monitored for 9.5 months by periodically recording the location of marked seed heads. Sites were located inside a reserve that excludes sheep but not kangaroos, and in a nearby area with both kangaroos and sheep. The distance moved and likelihood of seed head movement was higher in areas with sheep, and especially along animal tracks. There was clear evidence that seed heads were channeled down animal tracks during large rainfall events. Seed head dispersal away from patches occurred to a limited extent via their physical contact with sheep and potentially via wind dispersal. Thus, the advantages of this study system allowed us to demonstrate the two postulated effects of herbivores on dispersal via direct movement of seed heads, and two distinct indirect effects through landscape modification by herbivores from the creation of animal tracks and the denudation of vegetation.Louise M. Emmerson, José M. Facelli, Peter Chesson, Hugh Possingham, and Jemery R. Da

Foraging in a patchy environment: prey-encounter rate and residence time distributions

Small bluegill sunfish, Lepomis macrochirus, foraging among patches in the laboratory did not search systematically within a patch; their intercapture intervals did not differ from a model of random prey encounter within a patch. Patch-residence time, number of prey eaten, and giving-up time (time between last prey capture and leaving the patch) were measured for bluegills foraging in two different three-patch 'environments' (a constant environment, in which each patch began with the same number of prey and a variable environment, in which two patches began with low prey density and one patch with high prey density). When compared with three decision rules a forager may use to determine when to leave a patch, the data most closely agreed with predictions from a 'constant residence time' rule. Bluegills responded to changes in the distribution of prey among patches, but not by using different decision rules. There was qualitative, but not quantitative, agreement with a model of random residence times. The total number of prey eaten by a bluegill during a foraging bout was similar to the number predicted from a model of random search and random residence times

The effect of irregular breathing patterns on internal target volumes in four-dimensional CT and cone-beam CT images in the context of stereotactic lung radiotherapy

Purpose: Stereotactic lung radiotherapy is complicated by tumor motion from patient respiration. Four-dimensional CT (4DCT) imaging is a motion compensation method used in treatment planning to generate a maximum intensity projection (MIP) internal target volume (ITV). Image guided radiotherapy during treatment may involve acquiring a volumetric cone-beam CT (CBCT) image and visually aligning the tumor to the planning 4DCT MIP ITV contour. Moving targets imaged with CBCT can appear blurred and currently there are no studies reporting on the effect that irregular breathing patterns have on CBCT volumes and their alignment to 4DCT MIP ITV contours. The objective of this work was therefore to image a phantom moving with irregular breathing patterns to determine whether any configurations resulted in errors in volume contouring or alignment. Methods: A Perspex thorax phantom was used to simulate a patient. Three wooden "lung" inserts with embedded Perspex "lesions" were moved up to 4 cm with computer-generated motion patterns, and up to 1 cm with patient-specific breathing patterns. The phantom was imaged on 4DCT and CBCT with the same acquisition settings used for stereotactic lung patients in the clinic and the volumes on all phantom images were contoured. This project assessed the volumes for qualitative and quantitative changes including volume, length of the volume, and errors in alignment between CBCT volumes and 4DCT MIP ITV contours

Spatial complementarity and the coexistence of species

Coexistence of apparently similar species remains an enduring paradox in ecology. Spatial structure has been predicted to enable coexistence even when population-level models predict competitive exclusion if it causes each species to limit its own population more than that of its competitor. Nevertheless, existing hypotheses conflict with regard to whether clustering favours or precludes coexistence. The spatial segregation hypothesis predicts that in clustered populations the frequency of intra-specific interactions will be increased, causing each species to be self-limiting. Alternatively, individuals of the same species might compete over greater distances, known as heteromyopia, breaking down clusters and opening space for a second species to invade. In this study we create an individual-based model in homogeneous two-dimensional space for two putative sessile species differing only in their demographic rates and the range and strength of their competitive interactions. We fully characterise the parameter space within which coexistence occurs beyond population-level predictions, thereby revealing a region of coexistence generated by a previously-unrecognised process which we term the triadic mechanism. Here coexistence occurs due to the ability of a second generation of offspring of the rarer species to escape competition from their ancestors. We diagnose the conditions under which each of three spatial coexistence mechanisms operates and their characteristic spatial signatures. Deriving insights from a novel metric — ecological pressure — we demonstrate that coexistence is not solely determined by features of the numerically-dominant species. This results in a common framework for predicting, given any pair of species and knowledge of the relevant parameters, whether they will coexist, the mechanism by which they will do so, and the resultant spatial pattern of the community. Spatial coexistence arises from complementary combinations of traits in each species rather than solely through self-limitation

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Temporal variance of disturbance did not affect diversity and structure of a marine fouling community in north-eastern New Zealand

Natural heterogeneity in ecological parameters, like population abundance, is more widely recognized and investigated than variability in the processes that control these parameters. Experimental ecologists have focused mainly on the mean intensity of predictor variables and have largely ignored the potential to manipulate variances in processes, which can be considered explicitly in experimental designs to explore variation in causal mechanisms. In the present study, the effect of the temporal variance of disturbance on the diversity of marine assemblages was tested in a field experiment replicated at two sites on the northeast coast of New Zealand. Fouling communities grown on artificial settlement substrata experienced disturbance regimes that differed in their inherent levels of temporal variability and timing of disturbance events, while disturbance intensity was identical across all levels. Additionally, undisturbed assemblages were used as controls. After 150 days of experimental duration, the assemblages were then compared with regard to their species richness, abundance and structure. The disturbance effectively reduced the average total cover of the assemblages, but no consistent effect of variability in the disturbance regime on the assemblages was detected. The results of this study were corroborated by the outcomes from simultaneous replicate experiments carried out in each of eight different biogeographical regions around the world

Phytoplankton niche generation by interspecific stoichiometric variation

For marine biogeochemical models used in simulations of climate change scenarios, the ability to account for adaptability of marine ecosystems to environmental change becomes a concern. The potential for adaptation is expected to be larger for a diverse ecosystem compared to a monoculture of a single type of (model) algae, such as typically included in biogeochemical models. Recent attempts to simulate phytoplankton diversity in global marine ecosystem models display remarkable qualitative agreement with observed patterns of species distributions. However, modeled species diversity tends to be systematically lower than observed and, in many regions, is smaller than the number of potentially limiting nutrients. According to resource competition theory, the maximum number of coexisting species at equilibrium equals the number of limiting resources. By simulating phytoplankton communities in a chemostat model and in a global circulation model, we show here that a systematic underestimate of phytoplankton diversity may result from the standard modeling assumption of identical stoichiometry for the different phytoplankton types. Implementing stoichiometric variation among the different marine algae types in the models allows species to generate different resource supply niches via their own ecological impact. This is shown to increase the level of phytoplankton coexistence both in a chemostat model and in a global self-assembling ecosystem model. Key Points: - Common Redfield stoichiometry in plankton models impedes phytoplankton diversity - Stoichiometric plasticity increases the chance for sustained diversity - Modelers should go beyond Redfield stoichiometry in multi-phytoplankton model

'To live and die [for] Dixie': Irish civilians and the Confederate States of America

Around 20,000 Irishmen served in the Confederate army in the Civil War. As a result, they left behind, in various Southern towns and cities, large numbers of friends, family, and community leaders. As with native-born Confederates, Irish civilian support was crucial to Irish participation in the Confederate military effort. Also, Irish civilians served in various supporting roles: in factories and hospitals, on railroads and diplomatic missions, and as boosters for the cause. They also, however, suffered in bombardments, sieges, and the blockade. Usually poorer than their native neighbours, they could not afford to become 'refugees' and move away from the centres of conflict. This essay, based on research from manuscript collections, contemporary newspapers, British Consular records, and Federal military records, will examine the role of Irish civilians in the Confederacy, and assess the role this activity had on their integration into Southern communities. It will also look at Irish civilians in the defeat of the Confederacy, particularly when they came under Union occupation. Initial research shows that Irish civilians were not as upset as other whites in the South about Union victory. They welcomed a return to normalcy, and often 'collaborated' with Union authorities. Also, Irish desertion rates in the Confederate army were particularly high, and I will attempt to gauge whether Irish civilians played a role in this. All of the research in this paper will thus be put in the context of the Drew Gilpin Faust/Gary Gallagher debate on the influence of the Confederate homefront on military performance. By studying the Irish civilian experience one can assess how strong the Confederate national experiment was. Was it a nation without a nationalism