Interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 3465–3487, doi:10.1002/2015JC011417.In the present work, we investigate the interannual variability of the South Indian Countercurrent (SICC), a major and still understudied current of the Indian Ocean circulation. To characterize the interannual variability of the SICC, four different data sets (altimetry, GLORYS, OFAM3, and SODA) are analyzed using multiple tools, which include Singular Spectrum Analysis and wavelet methods. The quasi-biennial band dominates the SICC low-frequency variance, with the main peak in the 1.5–1.8 year interval. A secondary peak (2.1–2.5 year) is only found in the western basin. Interannual and decadal-type modulations of the quasi-biennial signal are also identified. In addition, limitations of SODA before the 1960s in the SICC region are revealed. Within the quasi-biennial band, the SICC system presents two main patterns with a multiple jet structure. One pattern is characterized by a robust northern jet, while in the other the central jet is well developed and northern jet is weaker. In both patterns, the southern jet has always a strong signature. When the northern SICC jet is stronger, the northern cell of the subtropical gyre has a triangular shape, with its southern limb having a strong equatorward slant. The quasi-biennial variability of the SICC is probably related to the Indian Ocean tropical climate modes that are known to have a strong biennial characteristic.ARC Discovery Project Grant Number: DP130102088; NSF Grant Number: OCE-091716; Ocean Science Division of VM Oceanica2016-11-2

Mixing variability in the Southern Ocean

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 966–987, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0110.1.A key remaining challenge in oceanography is the understanding and parameterization of small-scale mixing. Evidence suggests that topographic features play a significant role in enhancing mixing in the Southern Ocean. This study uses 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel EM-APEX profiling floats to investigate turbulent mixing north of the Kerguelen Plateau, a major topographic feature in the Southern Ocean. A shear–strain finescale parameterization is applied to estimate diapycnal diffusivity in the upper 1600 m of the ocean. The indirect estimates of mixing match direct microstructure profiler observations made simultaneously. It is found that mixing intensities have strong spatial and temporal variability, ranging from O(10−6) to O(10−3) m2 s−1. This study identifies topographic roughness, current speed, and wind speed as the main factors controlling mixing intensity. Additionally, the authors find strong regional variability in mixing dynamics and enhanced mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current frontal region. This enhanced mixing is attributed to dissipating internal waves generated by the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the topography of the Kerguelen Plateau. Extending the mixing observations from the Kerguelen region to the entire Southern Ocean, this study infers a large water mass transformation rate of 17 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) across the boundary of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This work suggests that the contribution of mixing to the Southern Ocean overturning circulation budget is particularly significant in fronts.AM was supported by the joint CSIRO–University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. BMS was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment and CSIRO. KLPs salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds.2015-10-0

Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model : Tasmania as a test case

In this study we develop methods for dynamically downscaling output from six general circulation models (GCMs) for two emissions scenarios using a variable-resolution atmospheric climate model. The use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios gives an estimate of model range in projected changes to the mean climate across the region. By modeling the atmosphere at a very fine scale, the simulations capture processes that are important to regional weather and climate at length scales that are subgrid scale for the host GCM. We find that with a multistaged process of increased resolution and the application of bias adjustment methods, the ability of the simulation to reproduce observed conditions improves, with greater than 95% of the spatial variance explained for temperature and about 90% for rainfall. Furthermore, downscaling leads to a significant improvement for the temporal distribution of variables commonly used in applied analyses, reproducing seasonal variability in line with observations. This seasonal signal is not evident in the GCMs. This multistaged approach allows progressive improvement in the skill of the simulations in order to resolve key processes over the region with quantifiable improvements in the correlations with observations

Long-term and recent changes in sea level in the Falkland Islands

Mean sea level measurements made at Port Louis in the Falkland Islands in 1981-2, 1984 and 2009, together with values from the nearby permanent tide gauge at Port Stanley, have been compared to measurements made at Port Louis in 1842 by James Clark Ross. The long-term rate of change of sea level is estimated to have been +0.75 ± 0.35 mm/year between 1842 and the early 1980s, after correction for air pressure effects and for vertical land movement due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). The 2009 Port Louis data set is of particular importance due to the availability of simultaneous information from Port Stanley. The data set has been employed in two ways, by providing a short recent estimate of mean sea level itself, and by enabling the effective combination of measurements at the two sites. The rate of sea level rise observed since 1992, when the modern Stanley gauge was installed, has been larger at 2.51 ± 0.58 mm/year, after correction for air pressure and GIA. This rate compares to a value of 2.79 ± 0.42 mm/year obtained from satellite altimetry in the region over the same period. Such a relatively recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise is consistent with findings from other locations in the southern hemisphere and globall

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km<sup>2</sup>) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. <br><br> The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. <br><br> There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. <br><br> This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability

Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment

“Super” Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British-Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an Atmospheric River (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics

Estimating changes in ocean ventilation from early 1990s CFC-12 and late 2000s SF6 measurements

Transient tracer measurements can constrain the rates and pathways of ocean ventilation and act as proxies for biogeochemically relevant gases such as CO2 and oxygen. Various techniques have deduced changes in ocean ventilation over decadal timescales using transient tracer measurements made on repeat sections, but these require a priori assumptions about mixing in the ocean interior. Here, we introduce a simple, direct observational method that takes advantage of the similar atmospheric increase rates of chlorofluorocarbon-12 and sulfur hexafluoride, but with a time lag (offset) of 1415 years. Such repeat measurements can be directly compared without prior assumptions about mixing. A difference larger than similar to 2 years between modern sulfur hexafluoride and historical chlorofluorocarbon-12 tracer ages implies a change in ventilation, although lack of difference does not necessarily imply no change. Several tracer data sets are presented, which suggest changes in ventilation in the South Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change

TOM40 Mediates Mitochondrial Dysfunction Induced by α-Synuclein Accumulation in Parkinson's Disease.

Alpha-synuclein (α-Syn) accumulation/aggregation and mitochondrial dysfunction play prominent roles in the pathology of Parkinson's disease. We have previously shown that postmortem human dopaminergic neurons from PD brains accumulate high levels of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) deletions. We now addressed the question, whether alterations in a component of the mitochondrial import machinery -TOM40- might contribute to the mitochondrial dysfunction and damage in PD. For this purpose, we studied levels of TOM40, mtDNA deletions, oxidative damage, energy production, and complexes of the respiratory chain in brain homogenates as well as in single neurons, using laser-capture-microdissection in transgenic mice overexpressing human wildtype α-Syn. Additionally, we used lentivirus-mediated stereotactic delivery of a component of this import machinery into mouse brain as a novel therapeutic strategy. We report here that TOM40 is significantly reduced in the brain of PD patients and in α-Syn transgenic mice. TOM40 deficits were associated with increased mtDNA deletions and oxidative DNA damage, and with decreased energy production and altered levels of complex I proteins in α-Syn transgenic mice. Lentiviral-mediated overexpression of Tom40 in α-Syn-transgenic mice brains ameliorated energy deficits as well as oxidative burden. Our results suggest that alterations in the mitochondrial protein transport machinery might contribute to mitochondrial impairment in α-Synucleinopathies

Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century

The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated from a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin-mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0-450?m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000?m-3000?m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003-2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000?m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively) whilst the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53?±?0.06?W?m?2 through the sea-surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus