Modeling Earth system changes of the past

This review outlines some of the challenging problems to be faced in understanding the causes and mechanisms of large climatic changes and gives examples of initial studies of these problems with climate models. The review covers climatic changes in three main periods of earth history: (1) the past several centuries; (2) the past several glacial-interglacial cycles; and (3) the past several million years. The review will concentrate on studies of climate but, where possible, will mention broader aspects of the earth system

Comprehensive system models: Strategies for evaluation

The task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models is vast involving validations of every model component at every scale of organization, as well as tests of all the individual linkages. Even the most detailed evaluation of each of the component processes and the individual links among them should not, however, engender confidence in the performance of the whole. The integrated earth system is so rich with complex feedback loops, often involving components of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, that it is certain to exhibit emergent properties very difficult to predict from the perspective of a narrow focus on any individual component of the system. Therefore, a substantial share of the task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models must reside at the level of whole system evaluations. Since complete, integrated atmosphere/ ocean/ biosphere/ hydrology models are not yet operational, questions of evaluation must be addressed at the level of the kinds of earth system processes that the models should be competent to simulate, rather than at the level of specific performance criteria. Here, we have tried to identify examples of earth system processes that are difficult to simulate with existing models and that involve a rich enough suite of feedbacks that they are unlikely to be satisfactorily described by highly simplified or toy models. Our purpose is not to specify a checklist of evaluation criteria but to introduce characteristics of the earth system that may present useful opportunities for model testing and, of course, improvement

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season

Element redistribution along hydraulic and redox gradients of low-centered polygons, Lena Delta, northern Siberia

Wetland soils affected by permafrost are extensive in subarctic and arctic tundra. However, this fact does not imply these soils have been sufficiently investigated. In particular, studies of element translocation processes are scarce. This study was conducted (i) to determine the relationship between water and redox regimes in wetland soils in the Siberian tundra, and (ii) to investigate their influence on the distribution of redox sensitive and associate elements (Mn, Fe, P). Major geomorphic units were chosen (microhigh, polygon rim and slope; microlow, polygon center) from two low-centered polygons in the Lena Delta. Within polygons, redox potential, permafrost, and water level were measured during summer in 1999 and 2000 and (related) compared with element distribution. Manganese, Fe, and P accumulations were preferentially observed in aerobic microhighs. Anaerobic conditions in the microlows lead to a mobilization of Mn, Fe, and P. The elements migrate via water and are immobilized at the microhigh, which acts as an oxidative barrier. The element pattern, indicating an upward flux via water along redox gradients, is explained by higher evapotranspiration from soils and vegetation of the microhighs (Typic Aquiturbel) compared with soils and vegetation of the microlows (Typic Historthel). However, in further research this upward transport should be validated using labeled elements

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.Peer reviewe

Modeling decade to century scale variability in the atmosphere/ocean [Final report]

Study of the intrinsic variability of a coupled atmosphere/ocean model called The Fast Ocean/Atmosphere Model (FOAM)

University of Wisconsin Radiocarbon Dates XXIII

This material was digitized as part of a cooperative project between Radiocarbon and the University of Arizona Libraries.The Radiocarbon archives are made available by Radiocarbon and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform February 202

University of Wisconsin Radiocarbon Dates XXIII

This material was digitized as part of a cooperative project between Radiocarbon and the University of Arizona Libraries.The Radiocarbon archives are made available by Radiocarbon and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform February 202