Illness-Death Model as a Framework for Chronic Disease Burden Projection: Application to Mental Health Epidemiology

Introduction: Estimates of future disease burden supports public health decision-making. Multistate modeling of chronic diseases is still limited despite a long history of mathematicalmodeling of diseases.We introduce a discrete time approach to the illness- death model and a recursion formula, which can be utilized to project chronic disease burden. We further illustrate an example of the technique applied to anxiety disorders in Germany. Materials and Equipment: The illness-death model is a multistate model that relates prevalence, incidence, mortality, and remission. A basic recursion formula that considers prevalence, incidence, mortality among the susceptible, and mortality among the diseased can be applied to irreversible chronic diseases such as diabetes. Among several mental disorders, remission plays a key role and thus an extended recursion formula taking remission into account is derived. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data and population projections from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, a total number of individuals with anxiety disorders by sex in Germany from 2019 to 2030 was projected. Regression models were fitted to historical data for prevalence and incidence. Differential mortality risks were modeled based on empirical evidence. Remission was estimated from prevalence, incidence, and mortality, applying the extended recursion formula. Sex- and age-specific prevalence of 2019 was given as the initial value to estimate the total number of individuals with anxiety disorders for each year up to 2030. Projections were alsomade through simple extrapolation of prevalence for comparison. Results: From 2019 to 2030, we estimated a decrease of 52,114 (−1.3%) individuals with anxiety disorders among women, and an increase of 166,870 (+8.5%) cases among men, through the illness-death model approach. With prevalence extrapolation, an increase of 381,770 (+9.7%) among women and an increase of 272,446 (+13.9%) among men were estimated. Discussion: Application of the illness-death model with discrete time steps is possible for both irreversible chronic diseases and diseases with possible remissions, such as anxiety disorders. The technique provides a framework for disease burden prediction. The example provided here can form a basis for running simulations under varying transition probabilities

Genetic Determinants of Cardiovascular Events among Women with Migraine: A Genome-Wide Association Study

Migraine is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Both migraine and CVD are highly heritable. However, the genetic liability for CVD among migraineurs is unclear.We performed a genome-wide association study for incident CVD events during 12 years of follow-up among 5,122 migraineurs participating in the population-based Women's Genome Health Study. Migraine was self-reported and CVD events were confirmed after medical records review. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and considered a genome-wide p-value <5×10(-8) as significant.Among the 5,122 women with migraine 164 incident CVD events occurred during follow-up. No SNP was associated with major CVD, ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or CVD death at the genome-wide level; however, five SNPs showed association with p<5×10(-6). Among migraineurs with aura rs7698623 in MEPE (OR = 6.37; 95% CI 3.15-12.90; p = 2.7×10(-7)) and rs4975709 in IRX4 (OR = 5.06; 95% CI 2.66-9.62; p = 7.7×10(-7)) appeared to be associated with ischemic stroke, rs2143678 located close to MDF1 with major CVD (OR = 3.05; 95% CI 1.98-4.69; p = 4.3×10(-7)), and the intergenic rs1406961 with CVD death (OR = 12.33; 95% CI 4.62-32.87; p = 5.2×10(-7)). Further, rs1047964 in BACE1 appeared to be associated with CVD death among women with any migraine (OR = 4.67; 95% CI 2.53-8.62; p = 8.0×10(-7)).Our results provide some suggestion for an association of five SNPs with CVD events among women with migraine; none of the results was genome-wide significant. Four associations appeared among migraineurs with aura, two of those with ischemic stroke. Although our population is among the largest with migraine and incident CVD information, these results must be treated with caution, given the limited number of CVD events among women with migraine and the low minor allele frequencies for three of the SNPs. Our results await independent replication and should be considered hypothesis generating for future research

Giving Researchers a Headache - Sex and Gender Differences in Migraine

Migraine is a common neurovascular disorder affecting ∼15% of the general population. Ranking second in the list of years lived with disability (YLD), people living with migraine are greatly impacted by this especially burdensome primary headache disorder. In ∼30% o

Altered fibrin clot structure and dysregulated fibrinolysis contribute to thrombosis risk in severe COVID-19

The high incidence of thrombotic events suggests a possible role of the contact system pathway in COVID-19 pathology. Here, we demonstrate altered levels of factor XII (FXII) and its activation products in critically ill COVID-19 patients in comparison to patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome due to influenza virus (ARDS-influenza). Compatible with this data, we report rapid consumption of FXII in COVID-19, but not in ARDS-influenza, plasma. Interestingly, the lag phase in fibrin formation, triggered by the FXII activator kaolin, was not prolonged in COVID-19 as opposed to ARDS-influenza. Using confocal and electron microscopy, we showed that increased FXII activation rate, in conjunction with elevated fibrinogen levels, triggers formation of fibrinolysis-resistant, compact clots with thin fibers and small pores in COVID-19. Accordingly, clot lysis was markedly impaired in COVID-19 as opposed to ARDS-infleunza subjects. Dysregulatated fibrinolytic system, as evidenced by elevated levels of thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor, tissue-plasminogen activator, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 in COVID-19 potentiated this effect. Analysis of lung tissue sections revealed wide-spread extra- and intra-vascular compact fibrin deposits in COVID-19 patients. Together, compact fibrin network structure and dysregulated fibrinolysis may collectively contribute to high incidence of thrombotic events in COVID-19

Association between lifestyle factors and headache

Modification of lifestyle habits is a key preventive strategy for many diseases. The role of lifestyle for the onset of headache in general and for specific headache types, such as migraine and tension-type headache (TTH), has been discussed for many years. Most results, however, were inconsistent and data on the association between lifestyle factors and probable headache forms are completely lacking. We evaluated the cross-sectional association between different lifestyle factors and headache subtypes using data from three different German cohorts. Information was assessed by standardized face-to-face interviews. Lifestyle factors included alcohol consumption, smoking status, physical activity and body mass index. According to the 2004 diagnostic criteria, we distinguished the following headache types: migraine, TTH and their probable forms. Regional variations of lifestyle factors were observed. In the age- and gender-adjusted logistic regression models, none of the lifestyle factors was statistically significant associated with migraine, TTH, and their probable headache forms. In addition, we found no association between headache subtypes and the health index representing the sum of individual lifestyle factors. The lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity and overweight seem to be unrelated to migraine and TTH prevalence. For a judgement on their role in the onset of new or first attacks of migraine or TTH (incident cases), prospective cohort studies are required

Gene co-expression analysis identifies brain regions and cell types involved in migraine pathophysiology

Migraine is a common disabling neurovascular brain disorder typically characterised by attacks of severe headache and associated with autonomic and neurological symptoms. Migraine is caused by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over a dozen genetic loci associated with migraine. Here, we integrated migraine GWAS data with high-resolution spatial gene expression data of normal adult brains from the Allen Human Brain Atlas to identify specific brain regions and molecular pathways that are possibly involved in migraine pathophysiology. To this end, we used two complementary methods. In GWAS data from 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 controls, we first studied modules of co-expressed genes that were calculated based on human brain expression data for enrichment of genes that showed association with migraine. Enrichment of a migraine GWAS signal was found for five modules that suggest involvement in migraine pathophysiology of: (i) neurotransmission, protein catabolism and mitochondria in the cortex; (ii) transcription regulation in the cortex and cerebellum; and (iii) oligodendrocytes and mitochondria in subcortical areas. Second, we used the high-confidence genes from the migraine GWAS as a basis to construct local migraine-related co-expression gene networks. Signatures of all brain regions and pathways that were prominent in the first method also surfaced in the second method, thus providing support that these brain regions and pathways are indeed involved in migraine pathophysiology

Motor, cognitive and mobility deficits in 1000 geriatric patients : protocol of a quantitative observational study before and after routine clinical geriatric treatment – the ComOn-study

© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: Motor and cognitive deficits and consequently mobility problems are common in geriatric patients. The currently available methods for diagnosis and for the evaluation of treatment in this vulnerable cohort are limited. The aims of the ComOn (COgnitive and Motor interactions in the Older populatioN) study are (i) to define quantitative markers with clinical relevance for motor and cognitive deficits, (ii) to investigate the interaction between both motor and cognitive deficits and (iii) to assess health status as well as treatment outcome of 1000 geriatric inpatients in hospitals of Kiel (Germany), Brescia (Italy), Porto (Portugal), Curitiba (Brazil) and Bochum (Germany). Methods: This is a prospective, explorative observational multi-center study. In addition to the comprehensive geriatric assessment, quantitative measures of reduced mobility and motor and cognitive deficits are performed before and after a two week's inpatient stay. Components of the assessment are mobile technology-based assessments of gait, balance and transfer performance, neuropsychological tests, frailty, sarcopenia, autonomic dysfunction and sensation, and questionnaires to assess behavioral deficits, activities of daily living, quality of life, fear of falling and dysphagia. Structural MRI and an unsupervised 24/7 home assessment of mobility are performed in a subgroup of participants. The study will also investigate the minimal clinically relevant change of the investigated parameters. Discussion: This study will help form a better understanding of symptoms and their complex interactions and treatment effects in a large geriatric cohort.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Gene co-expression analysis identifies brain regions and cell types involved in migraine pathophysiology : a GWAS-based study using the Allen Human Brain Atlas

Migraine is a common disabling neurovascular brain disorder typically characterised by attacks of severe headache and associated with autonomic and neurological symptoms. Migraine is caused by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over a dozen genetic loci associated with migraine. Here, we integrated migraine GWAS data with high-resolution spatial gene expression data of normal adult brains from the Allen Human Brain Atlas to identify specific brain regions and molecular pathways that are possibly involved in migraine pathophysiology. To this end, we used two complementary methods. In GWAS data from 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 controls, we first studied modules of co-expressed genes that were calculated based on human brain expression data for enrichment of genes that showed association with migraine. Enrichment of a migraine GWAS signal was found for five modules that suggest involvement in migraine pathophysiology of: (i) neurotransmission, protein catabolism and mitochondria in the cortex; (ii) transcription regulation in the cortex and cerebellum; and (iii) oligodendrocytes and mitochondria in subcortical areas. Second, we used the high-confidence genes from the migraine GWAS as a basis to construct local migraine-related co-expression gene networks. Signatures of all brain regions and pathways that were prominent in the first method also surfaced in the second method, thus providing support that these brain regions and pathways are indeed involved in migraine pathophysiology.Peer reviewe

Common variation in PHACTR1 is associated with susceptibility to cervical artery dissection

Cervical artery dissection (CeAD), a mural hematoma in a carotid or vertebral artery, is a major cause of ischemic stroke in young adults although relatively uncommon in the general population (incidence of 2.6/100,000 per year). Minor cervical traumas, infection, migraine and hypertension are putative risk factors, and inverse associations with obesity and hypercholesterolemia are described. No confirmed genetic susceptibility factors have been identified using candidate gene approaches. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 1,393 CeAD cases and 14,416 controls. The rs9349379[G] allele (PHACTR1) was associated with lower CeAD risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.69-0.82; P = 4.46 × 10(-10)), with confirmation in independent follow-up samples (659 CeAD cases and 2,648 controls; P = 3.91 × 10(-3); combined P = 1.00 × 10(-11)). The rs9349379[G] allele was previously shown to be associated with lower risk of migraine and increased risk of myocardial infarction. Deciphering the mechanisms underlying this pleiotropy might provide important information on the biological underpinnings of these disabling conditions