General state-space population dynamics model for Bayesian stock assessment

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Plasma Cell-Free DNA Levels Are Elevated in Acute Puumala Hantavirus Infection

Peer reviewe

Fatal Outcome in Bacteremia is Characterized by High Plasma Cell Free DNA Concentration and Apoptotic DNA Fragmentation: A Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: Recent studies have shown that apoptosis plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of sepsis. High plasma cell free DNA (cf-DNA) concentrations have been shown to be associated with sepsis outcome. The origin of cf-DNA is unclear. METHODS: Total plasma cf-DNA was quantified directly in plasma and the amplifiable cf-DNA assessed using quantitative PCR in 132 patients with bacteremia caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, ß-hemolytic streptococcae or Escherichia coli. The quality of cf-DNA was analyzed with a DNA Chip assay performed on 8 survivors and 8 nonsurvivors. Values were measured on days 1-4 after positive blood culture, on day 5-17 and on recovery. RESULTS: The maximum cf-DNA values on days 1-4 (n = 132) were markedly higher in nonsurvivors compared to survivors (2.03 vs 1.26 ug/ml, p<0.001) and the AUCROC in the prediction of case fatality was 0.81 (95% CI 0.69-0.94). cf-DNA at a cut-off level of 1.52 ug/ml showed 83% sensitivity and 79% specificity for fatal disease. High cf-DNA (>1.52 ug/ml) remained an independent risk factor for case fatality in a logistic regression model. Qualitative analysis of cf-DNA showed that cf-DNA displayed a predominating low-molecular-weight cf-DNA band (150-200 bp) in nonsurvivors, corresponding to the size of the apoptotic nucleosomal DNA. cf-DNA concentration showed a significant positive correlation with visually graded apoptotic band intensity (R = 0.822, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma cf-DNA concentration proved to be a specific independent prognostic biomarker in bacteremia. cf-DNA displayed a predominating low-molecular-weight cf-DNA band in nonsurvivors corresponding to the size of apoptotic nucleosomal DNA

A conceptual framework for invasion in microbial communities

There is a growing interest in controlling-promoting or avoiding-the invasion of microbial communities by new community members. Resource availability and community structure have been reported as determinants of invasion success. However, most invasion studies do not adhere to a coherent and consistent terminology nor always include rigorous interpretations of the processes behind invasion. Therefore, we suggest that a consistent set of definitions and a rigorous conceptual framework are needed. We define invasion in a microbial community as the establishment of an alien microbial type in a resident community and argue how simple criteria to define aliens, residents, and alien establishment can be applied for a wide variety of communities. In addition, we suggest an adoption of the community ecology framework advanced by Vellend (2010) to clarify potential determinants of invasion. This framework identifies four fundamental processes that control community dynamics: dispersal, selection, drift and diversification. While selection has received ample attention in microbial community invasion research, the three other processes are often overlooked. Here, we elaborate on the relevance of all four processes and conclude that invasion experiments should be designed to elucidate the role of dispersal, drift and diversification, in order to obtain a complete picture of invasion as a community process

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of alternative sex-change pathways in fish

Sequentially hermaphroditic fish change sex from male to female (protandry) or vice versa (protogyny), increasing their fitness by becoming highly fecund females or large dominant males, respectively. These life-history strategies present different social organizations and reproductive modes, from near-random mating in protandry, to aggregate- and harem-spawning in protogyny. Using a combination of theoretical and molecular approaches, we compared variance in reproductive success (V k*) and effective population sizes (N e) in several species of sex-changing fish. We observed that, regardless of the direction of sex change, individuals conform to the same overall strategy, producing more offspring and exhibiting greater V k* in the second sex. However, protogynous species show greater V k*, especially pronounced in haremic species, resulting in an overall reduction of N e compared to protandrous species. Collectively and independently, our results demonstrate that the direction of sex change is a pivotal variable in predicting demographic changes and resilience in sex-changing fish, many of which sustain highly valued and vulnerable fisheries worldwide

The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world

Random environmental variation, or stochasticity, is a key determinant of ecological dynamics. While we have some appreciation of how environmental stochasticity can moderate the variability and persistence of communities, we know little about its implications for the nature and predictability of ecological responses to large perturbations. Here, we show that shifts in the temporal autocorrelation (colour) of environmental noise provoke trade-offs in ecological stability across a wide range of different food-web structures by stabilizing dynamics in some dimensions, while simultaneously destabilizing them in others. Specifically, increasingly positive autocorrelation (reddening) of environmental noise increases resilience by hastening the recovery of food webs following a large perturbation, but reduces their resistance to perturbation and increases their temporal variability (reduces biomass stability). In contrast, all stability dimensions become less predictable, showing increased variability around the mean response, as environmental noise reddens. Moreover, we found environmental reddening to be a considerably more important determinant of stability than intrinsic food-web characteristics. These findings reveal the fundamental and dominant role played by environmental stochasticity in determining the dynamics and stability of ecosystems, and extend our understanding of how the multiple dimensions of stability relate to each other beyond simple white noise environments