Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6

Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of how the Antarctic climate system would behave under a range of scenarios of future external climate forcing are thus a high priority. Output from new model simulations coordinated as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the latest generation of state‐of‐the‐art climate models following a wider range of experiment types and scenarios than previous CMIP phases. Here the main broad‐scale 21st century Antarctic projections provided by the CMIP6 models are shown across four forcing scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. End‐of‐century Antarctic surface‐air temperature change across these scenarios (relative to 1995–2014) is 1.3, 2.5, 3.7 and 4.8°C. The corresponding proportional precipitation rate changes are 8, 16, 24 and 31%. In addition to these end‐of‐century changes, an assessment of scenario dependence of pathways of absolute and global‐relative 21st century projections is conducted. Potential differences in regional response are of particular relevance to coastal Antarctica, where, for example, ecosystems and ice shelves are highly sensitive to the timing of crossing of key thresholds in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Overall, it is found that the projected changes over coastal Antarctica do not scale linearly with global forcing. We identify two factors that appear to contribute: (a) a stronger global‐relative Southern Ocean warming in stabilisation (SSP2‐4.5) and aggressive mitigation (SSP1‐2.6) scenarios as the Southern Ocean continues to warm and (b) projected recovery of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone and its effect on the mid‐latitude westerlies. The major implication is that over coastal Antarctica, the surface warming by 2100 is stronger relative to the global mean surface warming for the low forcing compared to high forcing future scenarios

Оценка осадков в прибрежных районах Антарктики в глобальной модели атмосферы LMDZ6 с использованием наземных радиолокационных наблюдений

In the current context of climate change in the poles, one of the objectives of the APRES3 (Antarctic Precipitation Remote Sensing from Surface and Space) project was to characterize the vertical structure of precipitation in order to better simulate it. Precipitation simulated by models in Antarctica is currently very widespread and it overestimates the data. Sensitivity studies have been conducted using a global climate model and compared to the observations obtained at the Dumont d’Urville coast station, obtained by a Micro Rain Radar (MRR). The LMDz/IPSL general circulation model, with zoomed configuration over Dumont d’Urville, has been considered for this study. A sensitivity study was conducted on the physical and numerical parameters of the LMDz model with the aim of estimating their contribution to the precipitation simulation. Sensitivity experiments revealed that changes in the sedimentation and sublimation parameters do not significantly impact precipitation rate. However, dissipation of the LMDz model, which is a numerical process that dissipates spatially excessive energy and keeps the model stable, impacts precipitation indirectly but very strongly. A suitable adjustment of the dissipation reduces significantly precipitation over Antarctic peripheral area, thus providing a simulated profile in better agreement with the MRR observations.В текущем тренде изменения климата на полюсах одна из задач проекта APRES3 (Дистанционное зондирование осадков в Антарктике с поверхности и из космоса) заключается в том, чтобы уточнить вертикальную структуру осадков и повысить качество их прогноза. Известные результаты моделирования осадков в Антарктиде базируются на данных с высокой степенью неопределенности и сильно разнятся. Исследование избирательной чувствительности расчета осадков проводилось на основе глобальной климатической модели и сопоставлялось с наблюдениями, полученными с помощью метеорадара (MRR) на береговой станции Дюмон-д’Юрвиль. Использовалась LMDz/IPSL-модель общей циркуляции с повышенной детализацией в районе станции Дюмон-д’Юрвиль. Была выполнена оценка вклада физических и численных параметров данной модели в расчет осадков. Вычислительные эксперименты показали, что изменения параметров седиментации и сублимации не влияют существенно на прогнозируемую скорость выпадения осадков. Однако диссипация, возникающая в модели LMDz в процессе вычислений, рассеивая пространственно избыточную энергию и обеспечивая устойчивость модели, хотя и косвенно, но очень сильно влияет на рассчитываемую величину осадков. Адекватная подгонка уровня рассеивания при моделировании значительно снижает количество осадков в периферийных районах Антарктики, обеспечивая таким образом лучшее согласование моделируемого профиля с данными метеорадарных наблюдений

Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink

Longitudinal double spin asymmetries in single hadron quasi-real photoproduction at high pTp_T

We measured the longitudinal double spin asymmetries $A_{LL}$ for single hadron muo-production off protons and deuterons at photon virtuality $Q^2$ < 1(GeV/$\it c$)$^2$ for transverse hadron momenta $p_T$ in the range 0.7 GeV/$\it c$ to 4 GeV/$\it c$ . They were determined using COMPASS data taken with a polarised muon beam of 160 GeV/$\it c$ or 200 GeV/$\it c$ impinging on polarised $\mathrm{{}^6LiD}$ or $\mathrm{NH_3}$ targets. The experimental asymmetries are compared to next-to-leading order pQCD calculations, and are sensitive to the gluon polarisation $\Delta G$ inside the nucleon in the range of the nucleon momentum fraction carried by gluons $0.05 < x_g < 0.2$

Interplay among transversity induced asymmetries in hadron leptoproduction

In the fragmentation of a transversely polarized quark several left-right asymmetries are possible for the hadrons in the jet. When only one unpolarized hadron is selected, it exhibits an azimuthal modulation known as Collins effect. When a pair of oppositely charged hadrons is observed, three asymmetries can be considered, a di-hadron asymmetry and two single hadron asymmetries. In lepton deep inelastic scattering on transversely polarized nucleons all these asymmetries are coupled with the transversity distribution. From the high statistics COMPASS data on oppositely charged hadron-pair production we have investigated for the first time the dependence of these three asymmetries on the difference of the azimuthal angles of the two hadrons. The similarity of transversity induced single and di-hadron asymmetries is discussed. A new analysis of the data allows to establish quantitative relationships among them, providing for the first time strong experimental indication that the underlying fragmentation mechanisms are all driven by a common physical process.Comment: 6 figure

Interplay among transversity induced asymmetries in hadron leptoproduction

In the fragmentation of a transversely polarized quark several left-right asymmetries are possible for the hadrons in the jet. When only one unpolarized hadron is selected, it exhibits an azimuthal modulation known as Collins effect. When a pair of oppositely charged hadrons is observed, three asymmetries can be considered, a di-hadron asymmetry and two single hadron asymmetries. In lepton deep inelastic scattering on transversely polarized nucleons all these asymmetries are coupled with the transversity distribution. From the high statistics COMPASS data on oppositely charged hadron-pair production we have investigated for the first time the dependence of these three asymmetries on the difference of the azimuthal angles of the two hadrons. The similarity of transversity induced single and di-hadron asymmetries is discussed. A new analysis of the data allows to establish quantitative relationships among them, providing for the first time strong experimental indication that the underlying fragmentation mechanisms are all driven by a common physical process.Comment: 6 figure

The Spin Structure Function g1pg_1^{\rm p} of the Proton and a Test of the Bjorken Sum Rule

New results for the double spin asymmetry $A_1^{\rm p}$ and the proton longitudinal spin structure function $g_1^{\rm p}$ are presented. They were obtained by the COMPASS collaboration using polarised 200 GeV muons scattered off a longitudinally polarised NH$_3$ target. The data were collected in 2011 and complement those recorded in 2007 at 160\,GeV, in particular at lower values of $x$. They improve the statistical precision of $g_1^{\rm p}(x)$ by about a factor of two in the region $x\lesssim 0.02$. A next-to-leading order QCD fit to the $g_1$ world data is performed. It leads to a new determination of the quark spin contribution to the nucleon spin, $\Delta \Sigma$ ranging from 0.26 to 0.36, and to a re-evaluation of the first moment of $g_1^{\rm p}$. The uncertainty of $\Delta \Sigma$ is mostly due to the large uncertainty in the present determinations of the gluon helicity distribution. A new evaluation of the Bjorken sum rule based on the COMPASS results for the non-singlet structure function $g_1^{\rm NS}(x,Q^2)$ yields as ratio of the axial and vector coupling constants $|g_{\rm A}/g_{\rm V}| = 1.22 \pm 0.05~({\rm stat.}) \pm 0.10~({\rm syst.})$, which validates the sum rule to an accuracy of about 9\%.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures and table

Resonance Production and ππ\pi\pi S-wave in π−+p→π−π−π++precoil\pi^- + p \rightarrow \pi^- \pi^- \pi^+ + p_{recoil} at 190 GeV/c

The COMPASS collaboration has collected the currently largest data set on diffractively produced $\pi^-\pi^-\pi^+$ final states using a negative pion beam of 190 GeV/c momentum impinging on a stationary proton target. This data set allows for a systematic partial-wave analysis in 100 bins of three-pion mass, $0.5 < m_{3\pi} < 2.5$ GeV/c$^2$ , and in 11 bins of the reduced four-momentum transfer squared, $0.1 < t < 1.0$ (GeV/c)$^2$ . This two-dimensional analysis offers sensitivity to genuine one-step resonance production, i.e. the production of a state followed by its decay, as well as to more complex dynamical effects in nonresonant $3\pi$ production. In this paper, we present detailed studies on selected $3\pi$ partial waves with $J^{PC} = 0^{-+}$, $1^{++}$, $2^{-+}$, $2^{++}$, and $4^{++}$. In these waves, we observe the well-known ground-state mesons as well as a new narrow axial-vector meson $a_1(1420)$ decaying into $f_0(980) \pi$. In addition, we present the results of a novel method to extract the amplitude of the $\pi^-\pi^+$ subsystem with $I^{G}J^{PC} = 0^+ 0^{++}$ in various partial waves from the $\pi^-\pi^-\pi^+$ data. Evidence is found for correlation of the $f_0(980)$ and $f_0(1500)$ appearing as intermediate $\pi^- \pi^+$ isobars in the decay of the known $\pi(1800)$ and $\pi_2(1880)$.Comment: 96 page

Leading-order determination of the gluon polarisation from semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering data

Using a novel analysis technique, the gluon polarisation in the nucleon is re-evaluated using the longitudinal double-spin asymmetry measured in the cross section of semi-inclusive single-hadron muoproduction with photon virtuality $Q^2>1~({\rm GeV}/c)^2$. The data were obtained by the COMPASS experiment at CERN using a 160 GeV/$c$ polarised muon beam impinging on a polarised $^6$LiD target. By analysing the full range in hadron transverse momentum $p_{\rm T}$, the different $p_{\rm T}$-dependences of the underlying processes are separated using a neural-network approach. In the absence of pQCD calculations at next-to-leading order in the selected kinematic domain, the gluon polarisation $\Delta g/g$ is evaluated at leading order in pQCD at a hard scale of $\mu^2= \langle Q^2 \rangle = 3 ({\rm GeV}/c)^2$. It is determined in three intervals of the nucleon momentum fraction carried by gluons, $x_{\rm g}$, covering the range $0.04 \!<\! x_{ \rm g}\! <\! 0.28$~ and does not exhibit a significant dependence on $x_{\rm g}$. The average over the three intervals, $\langle \Delta g/g \rangle = 0.113 \pm 0.038_{\rm (stat.)}\pm 0.036_{\rm (syst.)}$ at $\langle x_{\rm g} \rangle \approx 0.10$, suggests that the gluon polarisation is positive in the measured $x_{\rm g}$ range.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure