Climate change scenarios for an assessment of vulnerability of forests in Ukraine in the 21st century

Forests are among the most valuable resources of any country not only as wood, but as a key component of bio-ecological system. Excluding anthropogenic factors, forests are mostly vulnerable by wildfire, droughts, pest invasions, hazardous and extreme weather events, etc. In fact, all these non-anthropogenic impacts could be significantly intensified by projected climate change in the 21st century. That is why future conditions for sustainable forest growth should be evaluated accounting for projected climate change preferably under different scenarios. It is well known that global climate change reveals different regional aspects. Therefore, special scenarios have been elaborated processing data of regional climate models (RCMs) from the FP-6 project ENSEMBLES with spatial resolution of 25 km. Verified over the territory of Ukraine ensembles of 10 RCMs for air temperature and 4 RCMs for precipitation calculated for IPCC scenario A1B, which is characterized by balanced consumption of fossil and renewable energy sources and considered by climate change science as one of most likely future development of the world, were applied. Taking into account that the expected dryness of regional climate could generate major challenges for vulnerability of Ukrainian forests, a modification of A1B scenario that is characterized by increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation (A1B+T-P) was proposed. In overall, the impacts of climate change on Ukrainian forests are diverse dependently upon geographical location, geomorphology and large land forms (mountains, plains), forest types and regimes of forest management. The biggest vulnerability was recognized in forests growing in steppe and southern forest steppe, where there is a high probability of impoverishment, degradation and death of forests over large areas. At the same time, there is also a threat of critical increase of vulnerability in other regions, particularly under more tough scenarios of climate change. The study was supported via the EU-funded ClimaEast project CEEF2015-036-UA “Building capacity for the assessment of vulnerability of Ukraine’s flatland forests to climate change”

Enviro-HIRLAM model estimates of elevated black carbon pollution over Ukraine resulted from forest fires

Funding Information: The study is part of the Enviro–PEEX on the ECMWF (Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex , last access: last access: 8 December 2022) Modelling Platform research and development of online coupled integrated meteorology–chemistry–aerosols feedback and interactions in weather, climate, and atmospheric composition multi-scale modelling) project (2018–2020). The Enviro-HIRLAM model simulations were performed on the CSC (Center for Science Computing) Sisu HPC (Finland) during the Enviro-HIRLAM and HARMONIE research training course at the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) of the University of Helsinki (UHEL). The authors also gratefully acknowledge the computer resources and technical support provided by the Center for Science Computing (CSC) HPC (Finland). This study was carried out within the framework of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The work has been partially supported by Academy of Finland via a Flagship programme for Atmospheric and Climate Competence Center (ACCC, 337549) and Academy of Finland projects (334792, 328616, 345510) and European Commission via a project “Non-CO Forcers and Their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts”, (FOCI) and the project “Research Infrastructures Services Reinforcing air quality monitoring capacities in European URBAN & Industrial areaS” (RI-URBANS), no. 101036245. Funding Information: This research has been supported by a grant within the ENVRIplus project for multi-domain access to RI platforms (H2020-INFRAIA-2014-2015, grant no.: 654182). The work has been partially performed under the Project HPC-EUROPA3 (INFRAIA-2016-1-730897) with the support of the EC Research Innovation Action under the H2020 Programme. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.Biomass burning is one of the biggest sources of atmospheric black carbon (BC), which negatively impacts human health and contributes to climate forcing. In this work, we explore the horizontal and vertical variability of BC concentrations over Ukraine during wildfires in August 2010. Using the Enviro-HIRLAM modelling framework, the BC atmospheric transport was modelled for coarse, accumulation, and Aitken mode aerosol particles emitted by the wildfire. Elevated pollution levels were observed within the boundary layer. The influence of the BC emissions from the wildfire was identified up to 550hPa level for the coarse and accumulation modes and at distances of about 2000km from the fire areas. BC was mainly transported in the lowest 3km layer and mainly deposited at night and in the morning hours due to the formation of strong surface temperature inversions. As modelling is the only available source of BC data in Ukraine, our results were compared with ground-level measurements of dust, which showed an increase in concentration of up to 73% during wildfires in comparison to average values. The BC contribution was found to be 10%-20% of the total aerosol mass near the wildfires in the lowest 2km layer. At a distance, BC contribution exceeded 10% only in urban areas. In the areas with a high BC content represented by both accumulation and coarse modes, downwelling surface long-wave radiation increased up to 20Wm-2, and 2m air temperature increased by 1-4°C during the midday hours. The findings of this case study can help to understand the behaviour of BC distribution and possible direct aerosol effects during anticyclonic conditions, which are often observed in mid-latitudes in the summer and lead to wildfire occurrences.Peer reviewe

The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk management

The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. Data for this study was gathered through a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in this event. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and is comprised of 19 questions concerning sectorial impact in the 55 regions of the responders and drought risk management practices of their organizations. Information from the survey is enriched with climate-related information to offer a comprehensive overview of drought risk management in Europe. Our research focuses on four key aspects: the increasing risk of drought, its spatial and temporal impacts, current drought risk management approaches, and the evolution of drought risk management across the continent. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, which is confounded by the rising frequency and intensity of droughts. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in drought risk management capacity among the various countries. Our analysis indicates that current drought risk management measures often rely on short-term operational concerns, particularly in agriculture-dominated economies, leading to potentially maladaptive practices. An overall positive trend in drought risk management, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness, indicates how this crisis can be the ideal moment to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. Consequently, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce drought risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. The directive should also set clear guidelines for drought risk management at the national level and for cross-boundary drought collaboration. This study and its companion paper "The 2022 Drought Shows the Importance of Preparedness in European Drought Risk Management " are the result of a study carried out by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network

Enviro-HIRLAM model estimates of elevated black carbon pollution over Ukraine resulted from forest fires

Funding Information: The study is part of the Enviro–PEEX on the ECMWF (Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex , last access: last access: 8 December 2022) Modelling Platform research and development of online coupled integrated meteorology–chemistry–aerosols feedback and interactions in weather, climate, and atmospheric composition multi-scale modelling) project (2018–2020). The Enviro-HIRLAM model simulations were performed on the CSC (Center for Science Computing) Sisu HPC (Finland) during the Enviro-HIRLAM and HARMONIE research training course at the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) of the University of Helsinki (UHEL). The authors also gratefully acknowledge the computer resources and technical support provided by the Center for Science Computing (CSC) HPC (Finland). This study was carried out within the framework of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The work has been partially supported by Academy of Finland via a Flagship programme for Atmospheric and Climate Competence Center (ACCC, 337549) and Academy of Finland projects (334792, 328616, 345510) and European Commission via a project “Non-CO Forcers and Their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts”, (FOCI) and the project “Research Infrastructures Services Reinforcing air quality monitoring capacities in European URBAN & Industrial areaS” (RI-URBANS), no. 101036245. Funding Information: This research has been supported by a grant within the ENVRIplus project for multi-domain access to RI platforms (H2020-INFRAIA-2014-2015, grant no.: 654182). The work has been partially performed under the Project HPC-EUROPA3 (INFRAIA-2016-1-730897) with the support of the EC Research Innovation Action under the H2020 Programme. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.Biomass burning is one of the biggest sources of atmospheric black carbon (BC), which negatively impacts human health and contributes to climate forcing. In this work, we explore the horizontal and vertical variability of BC concentrations over Ukraine during wildfires in August 2010. Using the Enviro-HIRLAM modelling framework, the BC atmospheric transport was modelled for coarse, accumulation, and Aitken mode aerosol particles emitted by the wildfire. Elevated pollution levels were observed within the boundary layer. The influence of the BC emissions from the wildfire was identified up to 550hPa level for the coarse and accumulation modes and at distances of about 2000km from the fire areas. BC was mainly transported in the lowest 3km layer and mainly deposited at night and in the morning hours due to the formation of strong surface temperature inversions. As modelling is the only available source of BC data in Ukraine, our results were compared with ground-level measurements of dust, which showed an increase in concentration of up to 73% during wildfires in comparison to average values. The BC contribution was found to be 10%-20% of the total aerosol mass near the wildfires in the lowest 2km layer. At a distance, BC contribution exceeded 10% only in urban areas. In the areas with a high BC content represented by both accumulation and coarse modes, downwelling surface long-wave radiation increased up to 20Wm-2, and 2m air temperature increased by 1-4°C during the midday hours. The findings of this case study can help to understand the behaviour of BC distribution and possible direct aerosol effects during anticyclonic conditions, which are often observed in mid-latitudes in the summer and lead to wildfire occurrences.Peer reviewe

Two-decade variability of climatic factors and its effect on the link between photosynthesis and meteorological parameters : example of Finland's boreal forest

Climate and forests are linked to each other via sophisticated feedback mechanisms. Recognizing the complexity of atmosphere-biosphere interactions, here we use a simplified approach aiming to establish connections between the parameters characterizing the boreal forest as a carbon sink and meteorological parameters using a two-decade data set (1996-2017) from the Station for Measuring Ecosystem - Atmosphere Relations (SMEAR II), Finland. First, we quantify climate changes in Finland using growing season length and climatic indices. Then we apply the indices to determine unusually cold, warm, wet, or dry years as compared with the typical conditions at SMEAR II. Further, we analyze the relationships between air temperature, precipitation, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results suggest increased photosynthesis in the Finnish boreal forest with warming and emphasize the importance of long-term measurements for integrated atmosphere-biosphere studies.Peer reviewe

Local temperature near native vascular plants in the Argentine Islands–Kyiv Peninsula region, Antarctic Peninsula: annual variability and approximation using standard meteorological measurements

We describe the main features of LT variability that influence native vascular plants in the Antarctic and examine the relationship between the temperature regime at the micro-level and meteorological conditions at the macro-level. We used a period of over a year, during which 37 specialized mini-loggers recorded LT near vascular plants in the Argentine Islands–Kyiv Peninsula region of the Antarctic Peninsula. Rather than measuring standard air or soil temperature, these loggers detect the temperature near the ground, in the microhabitats that harbour vascular plants. On a daily scale, LT correlates with standard (2-m) air temperature, with the values higher at rock slopes than at rock terraces and ledges. A moderate correlation was found with wind and radiation parameters. Seasonality accounted for 75–93% of total LT variability, with better results on open rock terraces compared to protected areas and clefts. LT day-to-day variability during the cold season is mostly responsible for differences in R2 of the annual cycle. We estimated daily mean LT using regression dependencies from 2-m air temperature and wind speed measured at a nearby meteorological station. R2 for these statistical models varies from 0.46 to 0.68. However, they underestimate the observed LT. LT measured on rock slopes showed better modelling results with air temperature, whereas wind speed was a better predictor on rock ledges. This study contributes to our understanding of the micro-scale temperature regime that influences native vascular plants and provides a method for its rough approximation using standard meteorological parameters

Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river

International audienceThe Antarctic Peninsula (AP) experienced a new extreme warm event and record-high surface melt in February 2022, rivaling the recent temperature records from 2015 and 2020, and contributing to the alarming series of extreme warm events over this region showing stronger warming compared to the rest of Antarctica. Here, the drivers and impacts of the event are analyzed in detail using a range of observational and modeling data. The northern/northwestern AP was directly impacted by an intense atmospheric river (AR) attaining category 3 on the AR scale, which brought anomalous heat and rainfall, while the AR-enhanced foehn effect further warmed its northeastern side. The event was triggered by multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns linking the AR formation to tropical convection anomalies and stationary Rossby waves, with an anomalous Amundsen Sea Low and a record-breaking high-pressure system east of the AP. This multivariate and spatial compound event culminated in widespread and intense surface melt across the AP. Circulation analog analysis shows that global warming played a role in the amplification and increased probability of the event. Increasing frequency of such events can undermine the stability of the AP ice shelves, with multiple local to global impacts, including acceleration of the AP ice mass loss and changes in sensitive ecosystems

An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages).We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).This research has been supported by the Spanish National Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation (project PID2019-111481RB-I00 and María de Maeztu excellence programme projects MdM-2017-0765 and MdM-2017-0714), FCT MCTES financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020), and the Basque Government BERC 2018–2021 programm

Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: A compound event with an intense atmospheric river

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) experienced a new extreme warm event and record-high surface melt in February 2022, rivaling therecent temperature records from 2015 and 2020, and contributing to the alarming series of extreme warm events over this regionshowing stronger warming compared to the rest of Antarctica. Here, the drivers and impacts of the event are analyzed in detailusing a range of observational and modeling data. The northern/northwestern AP was directly impacted by an intense atmosphericriver (AR) attaining category 3 on the AR scale, which brought anomalous heat and rainfall, while the AR-enhanced foehn effectfurther warmed its northeastern side. The event was triggered by multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns linking theAR formation to tropical convection anomalies and stationary Rossby waves, with an anomalous Amundsen Sea Low and a record-breaking high-pressure system east of the AP. This multivariate and spatial compound event culminated in widespread and intensesurface melt across the AP. Circulation analog analysis shows that global warming played a role in the amplification and increasedprobability of the event. Increasing frequency of such events can undermine the stability of the AP ice shelves, with multiple local toglobal impacts, including acceleration of the AP ice mass loss and changes in sensitive ecosystems.Fil: Gorodetskaya, Irina V.. Universidade de Aveiro. Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar; Portugal. Universidad de Porto. Facultad de Ciências. Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha E Ambiental.; PortugalFil: Durán Alarcón, Claudio. Universidad de Porto. Facultad de Ciências. Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha E Ambiental.; Portugal. Universidade de Aveiro. Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar; PortugalFil: González Herrero, Sergi. Antarctic Group; España. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF; SuizaFil: Clem, Kyle R.. Victoria University Of Wellington; Nueva ZelandaFil: Zou, Xun. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Rowe, Penny. Northwest Research Associates; Estados UnidosFil: Rodriguez Imazio, Paola Carolina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Campos, Diego. Dirección Meteorólogica de Chile; ChileFil: Leroy Dos Santos, Christophe. Universidade de Aveiro. Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar; Portugal. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement; FranciaFil: Dutrievoz, Niels. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement; Francia. Universidade de Aveiro. Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar; PortugalFil: Wille, Jonathan D.. Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule zurich (eth Zurich); . Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement; FranciaFil: Chyhareva, Anastasiia. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute; Ucrania. National Antarctic Scientific Center of Ukraine; UcraniaFil: Favier, Vincent. Institut Des Géosciences de Lenvironnement; FranciaFil: Blanchet, Juliette. Institut Des Géosciences de Lenvironnement; FranciaFil: Pohl, Benjamin. Biogéosciences; FranciaFil: Cordero, Raul R.. Universidad de Santiago de Chile; ChileFil: Park, Sang Jong. Korea Polar Research Institute; Corea del SurFil: Colwell, Steve. British Antartic Survey; Reino UnidoFil: Lazzara, Matthew A.. University of Wisconsin; Estados UnidosFil: Carrasco, Jorge. Universidad de Magallanes; ChileFil: Gulisano, Adriana Maria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Comercio Interno y Culto. Dirección Nacional del Antártico. Instituto Antártico Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Krakovska, Svitlana. National Antarctic Scientific Center Of Ukraine; Ucrania. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute; UcraniaFil: Ralph, F. Martin. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Dethinne, Thomas. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Picard, Ghislain. Institut Des Géosciences de Lenvironnement; Franci

Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables

The Carpathians are the largest mountain range in Europe and they represent a geographic barrier between Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans. In order to investigate the climate of the area, the CARPATCLIM project members compiled the Climate Atlas of the Carpathian Region, which consists of high-resolution daily grids (0.1˚ x 0.1˚) of sixteen meteorological variables and many derived indicators related to 1961-2010. We computed the gridded climatologies for 1961-2010 for eight variables (air pressure, cloudiness, precipitation, relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature, sunshine duration, and wind speed) and we discuss their spatial patterns. For each variable, we calculated the gridded linear trends related to 1961-2010 both on annual and seasonal basis. In general, temperature was found to increase in every season in 1986-2010, confirming the trends occurring in Europe in the last decades. On the other way, wind speed decreased in every season. Cloudiness and relative humidity decreased in spring, summer, and winter, and increased in autumn, whilst sunshine duration, as expected, behaved in the opposite way. Precipitation slightly increased and air pressure showed no significant trend, except of a few grid points. Then, we dealt with the correlation between the variables: excluding the high elevation points, the most correlated are sunshine duration and temperature. In particular, positive and negative sunshine duration anomalies are found to be respectively correlated with positive and negative temperature anomalies during the global dimming (60’s and 70’s) and brightening (90’s and 2000’s) periods.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen