Modeling Fuzzy Fidelity: Using Microsimulation to Explore Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Secularization

This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of “fuzzy fidelity,” i.e., the percentage of a population whose religiosity is moderate (Voas 2009). Validation of the model involved comparing its simulation results to shifts in religiosity over 9 waves of the European Social Survey. Simulation experiments suggest that a cohort effect, based on weakened transmission of religiosity as a function of the social environment, appears to be the best explanation for secularization in the societies studied, both for the population as a whole and for the proportions of religious, fuzzy, and secular people

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Motivasi Para Investor Pada Keputusan Pembelian Residensial Properti Di Yogyakarta

Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktorlokasi, keuangan, fitur rumah, lingkungan sekitar terhadap motivasi konsumen terhadap pembelian residensial properti di Yogyakarta. Teori yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah teori investasi dari Sharpe et al 2006, teori motivasi konsumen dari buku Kotler 2016 dan teori pendukung lainnya. Pada penelitian ini disebarkan sebanyak 150 kuesioner. Penelitian ini menggunakan alat analisis regresi linear berganda dengan program SPSS 19for windows. Hasil penelitian ini didapatkan faktorlokasi, keuangan, fitur rumah, lingkungan sekitar berpengaruh positif terhadap motivasi konsumen terhadap pembelian residensial properti di Yogyakarta

Lesion detection in epilepsy surgery: Lessons from a prospective evaluation of a machine learning algorithm

AIM: To evaluate a lesion detection algorithm designed to detect focal cortical dysplasia (FCD) in children undergoing stereoelectroencephalography (SEEG) as part of their presurgical evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy. METHOD: This was a prospective, single-arm, interventional study (Idea, Development, Exploration, Assessment, and Long-Term Follow-Up phase 1/2a). After routine SEEG planning, structural magnetic resonance imaging sequences were run through an FCD lesion detection algorithm to identify putative clusters. If the top three clusters were not already sampled, up to three additional SEEG electrodes were added. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of patients who had additional electrode contacts in the SEEG-defined seizure-onset zone (SOZ). RESULTS: Twenty patients (median age 12 years, range 4-18 years) were enrolled, one of whom did not undergo SEEG. Additional electrode contacts were part of the SOZ in 1 out of 19 patients while 3 out of 19 patients had clusters that were part of the SOZ but they were already implanted. A total of 16 additional electrodes were implanted in nine patients and there were no adverse events from the additional electrodes. INTERPRETATION: We demonstrate early-stage prospective clinical validation of a machine learning lesion detection algorithm used to aid the identification of the SOZ in children undergoing SEEG. We share key lessons learnt from this evaluation and emphasize the importance of robust prospective evaluation before routine clinical adoption of such algorithms

Temporal deconvolution of vascular plant-derived fatty acids exported from terrestrial watersheds

Relatively little is known about the amount of time that lapses between the photosynthetic fixation of carbon by vascular land plants and its incorporation into the marine sedimentary record, yet the dynamics of terrestrial carbon sequestration have important implications for the carbon cycle. Vascular plant carbon may encounter multiple potential intermediate storage pools and transport trajectories, and the age of vascular plant carbon accumulating in marine sediments will reflect these different pre-depositional histories. Here, we examine down-core 14C profiles of higher plant leaf wax-derived fatty acids isolated from high fidelity sedimentary sequences spanning the so-called “bomb-spike”, and encompassing a ca. 60-degree latitudinal gradient from tropical (Cariaco Basin), temperate (Saanich Inlet), and polar (Mackenzie Delta) watersheds to constrain integrated vascular plant carbon storage/transport times (“residence times”). Using a modeling framework, we find that, in addition to a "young" (conditionally defined as < 50 y) carbon pool, an old pool of compounds comprises 49 to 78 % of the fractional contribution of organic carbon (OC) and exhibits variable ages reflective of the environmental setting. For the Mackenzie Delta sediments, we find a mean age of the old pool of 28 ky (±9.4, standard deviation), indicating extensive pre-aging in permafrost soils, whereas the old pools in Saanich Inlet and Cariaco Basin sediments are younger, 7.9 (±5.0) and 2.4 (±0.50) to 3.2 (±0.54) ky, respectively, indicating less protracted storage in terrestrial reservoirs. The "young" pool showed clear annual contributions for Saanich Inlet and Mackenzie Delta sediments (comprising 24% and 16% of this pool, respectively), likely reflecting episodic transport of OC from steep hillside slopes surrounding Saanich Inlet and annual spring flood deposition in the Mackenzie Delta, respectively. Contributions of 5-10 year old OC to the Cariaco Basin show a short delay of OC inflow, potentially related to transport time to the offshore basin. Modeling results also indicate that the Mackenzie Delta has an influx of young but decadal material (20-30 years of age), pointing to the presence of an intermediate reservoir. Overall, these results show that a significant fraction of vascular plant C undergoes pre-aging in terrestrial reservoirs prior to accumulation in deltaic and marine sediments. The age distribution, reflecting both storage and transport times, likely depends on landscape-specific factors such as local topography, hydrographic characteristics, and mean annual temperature of the catchment, all of which affect the degree of soil buildup and preservation. We show that catchment-specific carbon residence times across landscapes can vary by an order of magnitude, with important implications both for carbon cycle studies and for the interpretation of molecular terrestrial paleoclimate records preserved in sedimentary sequences

Temporal deconvolution of vascular plant-derived fatty acids exported from terrestrial watersheds

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 244 (2019): 502-521, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2018.09.034.Relatively little is known about the amount of time that lapses between the photosynthetic fixation of carbon by vascular land plants and its incorporation into the marine sedimentary record, yet the dynamics of terrestrial carbon sequestration have important implications for the carbon cycle. Vascular plant carbon may encounter multiple potential intermediate storage pools and transport trajectories, and the age of vascular plant carbon accumulating in marine sediments will reflect these different predepositional histories. Here, we examine down-core 14C profiles of higher plant leaf waxderived fatty acids isolated from high fidelity sedimentary sequences spanning the socalled “bomb-spike”, and encompassing a ca. 60-degree latitudinal gradient from tropical (Cariaco Basin), temperate (Saanich Inlet), and polar (Mackenzie Delta) watersheds to constrain integrated vascular plant carbon storage/transport times (“residence times”). Using a modeling framework, we find that, in addition to a "young" (conditionally defined as < 50 y) carbon pool, an old pool of compounds comprises 49 to 78 % of the fractional contribution of organic carbon (OC) and exhibits variable ages reflective of the environmental setting. For the Mackenzie Delta sediments, we find a mean age of the old pool of 28 ky (±9.4, standard deviation), indicating extensive pre-aging in permafrost soils, whereas the old pools in Saanich Inlet and Cariaco Basin sediments are younger, 7.9 (±5.0) and 2.4 (±0.50) to 3.2 (±0.54) ky, respectively, indicating less protracted storage in terrestrial reservoirs. The "young" pool showed clear annual contributions for Saanich Inlet and Mackenzie Delta sediments (comprising 24% and 16% of this pool, respectively), likely reflecting episodic transport of OC from steep hillside slopes surrounding Saanich Inlet and annual spring flood deposition in the Mackenzie Delta, respectively. Contributions of 5-10 year old OC to the Cariaco Basin show a short delay of OC inflow, potentially related to transport time to the offshore basin. Modeling results also indicate that the Mackenzie Delta has an influx of young but decadal material (20-30 years of age), pointing to the presence of an intermediate reservoir. Overall, these results show that a significant fraction of vascular plant C undergoes pre-aging in terrestrial reservoirs prior to accumulation in deltaic and marine sediments. The age distribution, reflecting both storage and transport times, likely depends on landscape-specific factors such as local topography, hydrographic characteristics, and mean annual temperature of the catchment, all of which affect the degree of soil buildup and preservation. We show that catchment-specific carbon residence times across landscapes can vary by an order of magnitude, with important implications both for carbon cycle studies and for the interpretation of molecular terrestrial paleoclimate records preserved in sedimentary sequences.Financial support was provided by a Schlanger Ocean Drilling Graduate Fellowship (NJD), an EPA STAR Graduate Fellowship (NJD), a Dutch NWO Veni grant #825.10.022 (JEV), US NSF grants #OCE-0137005 (TIE and KAH), #OCE-052626800 (TIE), #OCE-0961980 (ERMD), and #EAR-0447323 (ERMD and JRS), a Swiss SNF grant #200021_140850 (TIE), a Swedish Research Council grant #2013-05204 (MS), as well as the Stanley Watson Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at WHOI (TIE) and the WHOI Arctic Research Initiative (TIE and LG)

Smoking and the Risk of Upper Aero Digestive Tract Cancers for Men and Women in the Asia-Pacific Region

Although smoking is an established causal factor for upper aero digestive tract cancer (UADTC), most of the evidence originates from the West. Thus, we analysed data from 455,409 subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration. Over a median of around six years follow-up, 371 deaths from UADTC were observed. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for current smokers, compared with those who had never smoked, was 2.36 (1.76 – 3.16), adjusted for age and alcohol drinking. Tobacco control policies are urgently required in Asia to prevent millions of deaths from UADTC that smoking will otherwise cause

Results of the GREAT08 Challenge: an image analysis competition for cosmological lensing

We present the results of the Gravitational LEnsing Accuracy Testing 2008 (GREAT08) Challenge, a blind analysis challenge to infer weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from images. The primary goal was to stimulate new ideas by presenting the problem to researchers outside the shear measurement community. Six GREAT08 Team methods were presented at the launch of the Challenge and five additional groups submitted results during the 6-month competition. Participants analyzed 30 million simulated galaxies with a range in signal-to-noise ratio, point spread function ellipticity, galaxy size and galaxy type. The large quantity of simulations allowed shear measurement methods to be assessed at a level of accuracy suitable for currently planned future cosmic shear observations for the first time. Different methods perform well in different parts of simulation parameter space and come close to the target level of accuracy in several of these. A number of fresh ideas have emerged as a result of the Challenge including a re-examination of the process of combining information from different galaxies, which reduces the dependence on realistic galaxy modelling. The image simulations will become increasingly sophisticated in future GREAT Challenges, meanwhile the GREAT08 simulations remain as a benchmark for additional developments in shear measurement algorithm

CDK19-related disorder results from both loss-of-function and gain-of-function de novo missense variants

Purpose To expand the recent description of a new neurodevelopmental syndrome related to alterations in CDK19. Methods Individuals were identified through international collaboration. Functional studies included autophosphorylation assays for CDK19 Gly28Arg and Tyr32His variants and in vivo zebrafish assays of the CDK19(G28R) and CDK19(Y32H). Results We describe 11 unrelated individuals (age range: 9 months to 14 years) with de novo missense variants mapped to the kinase domain of CDK19, including two recurrent changes at residues Tyr32 and Gly28. In vitro autophosphorylation and substrate phosphorylation assays revealed that kinase activity of protein was lower for p.Gly28Arg and higher for p.Tyr32His substitutions compared with that of the wild-type protein. Injection of CDK19 messenger RNA (mRNA) with either the Tyr32His or the Gly28Arg variants using in vivo zebrafish model significantly increased fraction of embryos with morphological abnormalities. Overall, the phenotype of the now 14 individuals with CDK19-related disorder includes universal developmental delay and facial dysmorphism, hypotonia (79%), seizures (64%), ophthalmologic anomalies (64%), and autism/autistic traits (56%). Conclusion CDK19 de novo missense variants are responsible for a novel neurodevelopmental disorder. Both kinase assay and zebrafish experiments showed that the pathogenetic mechanism may be more diverse than previously thought.Peer reviewe

Comprehensive global genome dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis show ancient diversification followed by contemporary mixing and recent lineage expansion.

Chlamydia trachomatis is the world's most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection and leading infectious cause of blindness, yet it is one of the least understood human pathogens, in part due to the difficulties of in vitro culturing and the lack of available tools for genetic manipulation. Genome sequencing has reinvigorated this field, shedding light on the contemporary history of this pathogen. Here, we analyze 563 full genomes, 455 of which are novel, to show that the history of the species comprises two phases, and conclude that the currently circulating lineages are the result of evolution in different genomic ecotypes. Temporal analysis indicates these lineages have recently expanded in the space of thousands of years, rather than the millions of years as previously thought, a finding that dramatically changes our understanding of this pathogen's history. Finally, at a time when almost every pathogen is becoming increasingly resistant to antimicrobials, we show that there is no evidence of circulating genomic resistance in C. trachomatis