Earnings and hindsight bias: An experimental study

We conduct prediction experiments where subjects estimate, and later reconstruct probabilities of upcoming events. Subjects also value state-contingent claims on these events. We find that hindsight bias is greater for events where subjects earned more money

Robots that can adapt like animals

As robots leave the controlled environments of factories to autonomously function in more complex, natural environments, they will have to respond to the inevitable fact that they will become damaged. However, while animals can quickly adapt to a wide variety of injuries, current robots cannot "think outside the box" to find a compensatory behavior when damaged: they are limited to their pre-specified self-sensing abilities, can diagnose only anticipated failure modes, and require a pre-programmed contingency plan for every type of potential damage, an impracticality for complex robots. Here we introduce an intelligent trial and error algorithm that allows robots to adapt to damage in less than two minutes, without requiring self-diagnosis or pre-specified contingency plans. Before deployment, a robot exploits a novel algorithm to create a detailed map of the space of high-performing behaviors: This map represents the robot's intuitions about what behaviors it can perform and their value. If the robot is damaged, it uses these intuitions to guide a trial-and-error learning algorithm that conducts intelligent experiments to rapidly discover a compensatory behavior that works in spite of the damage. Experiments reveal successful adaptations for a legged robot injured in five different ways, including damaged, broken, and missing legs, and for a robotic arm with joints broken in 14 different ways. This new technique will enable more robust, effective, autonomous robots, and suggests principles that animals may use to adapt to injury

Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads

In this paper I show that the co-movements between bid-ask spreads of equities and credit default swaps vary over time and increase over crisis periods. The co-movements are strongly related to systematic risk factors and to the theoretical debt-to-equity hedge ratio. I document that hedging and asymmetric information, besides higher funding costs and market volatility risk, are driving factors of the commonality and are significantly priced in CDS bid-ask spreads

Development and Validity of the Rating-of-Fatigue Scale

Objective: The purpose of these experiments was to develop a rating-of-fatigue (ROF) scale capable of tracking the intensity of perceived fatigue in a variety of contexts. Methods: Four experiments were carried out. The first provided the evidential basis for the construction of the ROF scale. The second tested the face validity of the ROF, and the third tested the convergent and divergent validity of the ROF scale during ramped cycling to exhaustion and 30 min of resting recovery. The final experiment tested the convergent validity of the ROF scale with time of day and physical activity (accelerometer counts) across a whole week. Results: Modal selections of descriptions and diagrams at different levels of exertion and recovery were found during Experiment 1 upon which the ROF scale was constructed and finalised. In Experiment 2, a high level of face validity was indicated, in that ROF was reported to represent fatigue rather than exertion. Descriptor and diagrammatic elements of ROF reportedly added to the coherence and ease of use of the scale. In Experiment 3, high convergence between ROF and various physiological measures were found during exercise and recovery (heart rate, blood lactate concentration, oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production, respiratory exchange ratio and ventilation rate were all P < 0.001). During ramped cycling to exhaustion ROF and RPE did correspond (P < 0.0001) but not during recovery, demonstrating discriminant validity. Experiment 4 found ROF to correspond with waking time during each day (Mon–Sun all P < 0.0001) and with physical activity (accelerometer count) (Mon–Sun all P < 0.001). Conclusions: The ROF scale has good face validity and high levels of convergent validity during ramped cycling to exhaustion, resting recovery and daily living activities. The ROF scale has both theoretical and applied potential in understanding changes in fatigue in a variety of contexts

Multi-Level Targeting of the Phosphatidylinositol-3-Kinase Pathway in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cells

Introduction: We assessed expression of p85 and p110a PI3K subunits in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) specimens and the association with mTOR expression, and studied effects of targeting the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway in NSCLC cell lines. Methods: Using Automated Quantitative Analysis we quantified expression of PI3K subunits in two cohorts of 190 and 168 NSCLC specimens and correlated it with mTOR expression. We studied effects of two PI3K inhibitors, LY294002 and NVP-BKM120, alone and in combination with rapamycin in 6 NSCLC cell lines. We assessed activity of a dual PI3K/mTOR inhibitor

Season of Birth and Dopamine Receptor Gene Associations with Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking and Reproductive Behaviors

Season of birth (SOB) has been associated with many physiological and psychological traits including novelty seeking and sensation seeking. Similar traits have been associated with genetic polymorphisms in the dopamine system. SOB and dopamine receptor genetic polymorphisms may independently and interactively influence similar behaviors through their common effects on the dopaminergic system.Based on a sample of 195 subjects, we examined whether SOB was associated with impulsivity, sensation seeking and reproductive behaviors. Additionally we examined potential interactions of dopamine receptor genes with SOB for the same set of traits. Phenotypes were evaluated using the Sociosexual Orientation Inventory, the Barratt Impulsivity Scale, the Eysenck Impulsivity Questionnaire, the Sensation Seeking Scale, and the Delay Discounting Task. Subjects were also asked about their age at first sex as well as their desired age at the birth of their first child. The dopamine gene polymorphisms examined were Dopamine Receptor D2 (DRD2) TaqI A and D4 (DRD4) 48 bp VNTR. Primary analyses included factorial genderxSOB ANOVAs or binary logistic regression models for each dependent trait. Secondary analysis extended the factorial models by also including DRD2 and DRD4 genotypes as independent variables. Winter-born males were more sensation seeking than non-winter born males. In factorial models including both genotype and season of birth as variables, two previously unobserved effects were discovered: (1) a SOBxDRD4 interaction effect on venturesomeness and (2) a DRD2xDRD4 interaction effect on sensation seeking.These results are consistent with past findings that SOB is related to sensation seeking. Additionally, these results provide tentative support for the hypothesis that SOB modifies the behavioral expression of dopaminergic genetic polymorphism. These findings suggest that SOB should be included in future studies of risky behaviors and behavioral genetic studies of the dopamine system

2017 update of the WSES guidelines for emergency repair of complicated abdominal wall hernias

Emergency repair of complicated abdominal wall hernias may be associated with worsen outcome and a significant rate of postoperative complications. There is no consensus on management of complicated abdominal hernias. The main matter of debate is about the use of mesh in case of intestinal resection and the type of mesh to be used. Wound infection is the most common complication encountered and represents an immense burden especially in the presence of a mesh. The recurrence rate is an important topic that influences the final outcome. A World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) Consensus Conference was held in Bergamo in July 2013 with the aim to define recommendations for emergency repair of abdominal wall hernias in adults. This document represents the executive summary of the consensus conference approved by a WSES expert panel. In 2016, the guidelines have been revised and updated according to the most recent available literature.Peer reviewe

The role of open abdomen in non-trauma patient : WSES Consensus Paper

The open abdomen (OA) is defined as intentional decision to leave the fascial edges of the abdomen un-approximated after laparotomy (laparostomy). The abdominal contents are potentially exposed and therefore must be protected with a temporary coverage, which is referred to as temporal abdominal closure (TAC). OA use remains widely debated with many specific details deserving detailed assessment and clarification. To date, in patients with intra-abdominal emergencies, the OA has not been formally endorsed for routine utilization; although, utilization is seemingly increasing. Therefore, the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES), Abdominal Compartment Society (WSACS) and the Donegal Research Academy united a worldwide group of experts in an international consensus conference to review and thereafter propose the basis for evidence-directed utilization of OA management in non-trauma emergency surgery and critically ill patients. In addition to utilization recommendations, questions with insufficient evidence urgently requiring future study were identified.Peer reviewe