Large-Scale Sheep Losses to Wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany Are Related to the Expansion of the Wolf Population but Not to Increasing Wolf Numbers

Recovery of predator populations triggers conflicts due to livestock depredation losses, particularly in Germany where the wolf (Canis lupus) population grows exponentially and livestock (especially sheep) losses raise public concerns and motivate the authorities to control wolf numbers. Yet, the effects of wolf numbers and alternative factors, such as abundance of prey and livestock, on livestock losses in this country are not investigated. In this study, we collected and analyzed data on the numbers of reproductive units of wolves (packs and pairs together) as a surrogate of adult wolf numbers, sheep killed by wolves, living sheep, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in every German state and year from 2002 to 2019. We applied a negative binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to estimate the effects of these predictors on the numbers of sheep killed by wolves. We also examined the relationships between the percentages of killed/living sheep and the numbers of living sheep. Ranking of 63 models based on the Akaike information criterion revealed that sheep losses were determined by state, year, and number of living sheep, not by wolf numbers, at high precision and accuracy. The number of sheep killed by wolves increased consistently by 41% per year and by 30% for every additional 10,000 sheep, mainly in the north where most wolf territories are concentrated. This means that sheep are protected insufficiently and/or ineffectively. The percentages of killed/living sheep consistently increased by 0.02–0.05% per state and year, with the maximum percentage of 0.7%, on a backdrop of decreasing numbers of living sheep. In conclusion, we demonstrate that sheep losses in Germany have been driven by the expansion of the wolf population, not by wolf numbers, and by the number of sheep available. We suggest that Germany’s wolf conservation policy should focus on alternative nonlethal interventions, enforcement and standardization of intervention monitoring, and promotion of wolf tolerance rather than on lethal control of wolf population size.publishedVersio

Blue sheep strongly affect snow leopard relative abundance but not livestock depredation in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Large carnivores play key roles in their ecosystems, but their protection is a major challenge in biodiversity conservation due to conflicts with human interests. The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is the top predator of Asian high-altitude landscapes and faces various threats including wild prey depletion and illegal killings as a consequence of livestock depredation. As the interactions between snow leopards, wild prey, and livestock are still insufficiently understood, we studied the effects of 1) wild prey (blue sheep Pseudois nayaur and Himalayan marmots Marmota himalayana) and domestic prey on snow leopard relative abundance, and of 2) these ecological parameters and intervention applications on livestock depredation by snow leopards. In the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal, we monitored wildlife populations and livestock along transects (490.8 km) in 82 grid cells (4 ×4 km) in 2019 and 2021 and conducted questionnaire surveys to determine livestock depredation between 2018 and 2021 (n = 479 households). We applied generalized linear models (GLMs) and sample comparison testing to examine the effects of prey densities and other environmental and anthropogenic predictors on snow leopard relative abundance and livestock depredation. Blue sheep density strongly positively affected snow leopard relative abundance, which also increased with terrain ruggedness and decreased with increasing densities of livestock and the human population. The size of livestock holdings shaped depredation events of large livestock (yak, cattle and horse), whereas depredation events of sheep and goats, which accounted for most (68.6%) depredated animals, decreased with increasing human population density and marmot presence. The strong impact of blue sheep on snow leopard relative abundance supports demands for integrating this ungulate into conservation and management plans, including wild prey recovery and translocation. The rather weak evidence for effects of blue sheep on depredation events suggests that conflicts over livestock depredation by snow leopards would neither be inflicted nor solved by increasing wild prey abundance. This demonstrates the need to improve intervention strategies in the Annapurna region, such as predator-proofing corrals and optimizing daytime herding practices. We suggest further exploring the effects of marmots and other secondary prey on livestock depredation rates, and testing the suitability of additional interventions, e.g., dogs and deterrents, as conflict mitigation tools. Our results will support wildlife managers in setting conservation priorities to promote the long-term co-existence of local people and snow leopards.publishedVersio

Coat Polymorphism in Eurasian Lynx: Adaptation to Environment or Phylogeographic Legacy?

We studied the relationship between the variability and contemporary distribution of pelage phenotypes in one of most widely distributed felid species and an array of environmental and demographic conditions. We collected 672 photographic georeferenced records of the Eurasian lynx throughout Eurasia. We assigned each lynx coat to one of five phenotypes. Then we fitted the coat patterns to different environmental and anthropogenic variables, as well as the effective geographic distances from inferred glacial refugia. A majority of lynx were either of the large spotted (41.5%) or unspotted (uniform, 36.2%) phenotype. The remaining patterns (rosettes, small spots and pseudo-rosettes) were represented in 11.0%, 7.4%, and 3.9% of samples, respectively. Although various environmental variables greatly affected lynx distribution and habitat suitability, it was the effect of least-cost distances from locations of the inferred refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum that explained the distribution of lynx coat patterns the best. Whereas the occurrence of lynx phenotypes with large spots was explained by the proximity to refugia located in the Caucasus/Middle East, the uniform phenotype was associated with refugia in the Far East and Central Asia. Despite the widely accepted hypothesis of adaptive functionality of coat patterns in mammals and exceptionally high phenotypic polymorphism in Eurasian lynx, we did not find well-defined signs of habitat matching in the coat pattern of this species. Instead, we showed how the global patterns of morphological variability in this large mammal and its environmental adaptations may have been shaped by past climatic change.publishedVersio

Tapping into non-English-language science for the conservation of global biodiversity.

The widely held assumption that any important scientific information would be available in English underlies the underuse of non-English-language science across disciplines. However, non-English-language science is expected to bring unique and valuable scientific information, especially in disciplines where the evidence is patchy, and for emergent issues where synthesising available evidence is an urgent challenge. Yet such contribution of non-English-language science to scientific communities and the application of science is rarely quantified. Here, we show that non-English-language studies provide crucial evidence for informing global biodiversity conservation. By screening 419,679 peer-reviewed papers in 16 languages, we identified 1,234 non-English-language studies providing evidence on the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation interventions, compared to 4,412 English-language studies identified with the same criteria. Relevant non-English-language studies are being published at an increasing rate in 6 out of the 12 languages where there were a sufficient number of relevant studies. Incorporating non-English-language studies can expand the geographical coverage (i.e., the number of 2° × 2° grid cells with relevant studies) of English-language evidence by 12% to 25%, especially in biodiverse regions, and taxonomic coverage (i.e., the number of species covered by the relevant studies) by 5% to 32%, although they do tend to be based on less robust study designs. Our results show that synthesising non-English-language studies is key to overcoming the widespread lack of local, context-dependent evidence and facilitating evidence-based conservation globally. We urge wider disciplines to rigorously reassess the untapped potential of non-English-language science in informing decisions to address other global challenges. Please see the Supporting information files for Alternative Language Abstracts

Where, why and how carnivores kill domestic animals in different parts of their ranges: An example of the Eurasian lynx

Human-carnivore conflicts over predation on domestic animals are a global challenge. Knowledge of determinants and patterns of predation on domestic animals is an essential prerequisite to develop and apply effective interventions against carnivores. Yet, it is surprisingly little known about how these determinants and patterns vary across different parts of the distribution areas of individual carnivore species. We synthesized published information on Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) predation in terms of: (a) domestic prey species, (b) selectivity, kill rates and consumption; (c) problem seasons; (d) problem individuals and sex/age categories of lynx; (e) problem areas (hotspots); (f) predation in Europe and Asia; and (g) effects of livestock protection interventions. Using a global database of dietary profiles (104 cases from 39 publications), we found that the main domestic animals killed and consumed by lynx are semi-domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and sheep (Ovis aries). Predation patterns on these two species are very different. Reindeer tend to be predated as a main wild prey species, whereas sheep are primarily available during summer and appear to be killed upon chance encounters (mainly lambs), mostly by male lynx, in predictable hotspot areas. As sheep and especially reindeer graze over remote areas without human attendance, only few interventions can be effectively used, with a primary focus on hotspot areas and peak seasons associated with the highest losses to lynx. Electric fencing and herding have been recommended as practical tools for sheep protection on small to medium scales, whereas compensation of confirmed losses is mostly ineffective as poaching still remains to be the major cause of lynx mortality. Risk-based compensations and performance payments are promising, but their application in lynx has yet to be tested

Large-Scale Sheep Losses to Wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany Are Related to the Expansion of the Wolf Population but Not to Increasing Wolf Numbers

Recovery of predator populations triggers conflicts due to livestock depredation losses, particularly in Germany where the wolf (Canis lupus) population grows exponentially and livestock (especially sheep) losses raise public concerns and motivate the authorities to control wolf numbers. Yet, the effects of wolf numbers and alternative factors, such as abundance of prey and livestock, on livestock losses in this country are not investigated. In this study, we collected and analyzed data on the numbers of reproductive units of wolves (packs and pairs together) as a surrogate of adult wolf numbers, sheep killed by wolves, living sheep, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in every German state and year from 2002 to 2019. We applied a negative binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to estimate the effects of these predictors on the numbers of sheep killed by wolves. We also examined the relationships between the percentages of killed/living sheep and the numbers of living sheep. Ranking of 63 models based on the Akaike information criterion revealed that sheep losses were determined by state, year, and number of living sheep, not by wolf numbers, at high precision and accuracy. The number of sheep killed by wolves increased consistently by 41% per year and by 30% for every additional 10,000 sheep, mainly in the north where most wolf territories are concentrated. This means that sheep are protected insufficiently and/or ineffectively. The percentages of killed/living sheep consistently increased by 0.02–0.05% per state and year, with the maximum percentage of 0.7%, on a backdrop of decreasing numbers of living sheep. In conclusion, we demonstrate that sheep losses in Germany have been driven by the expansion of the wolf population, not by wolf numbers, and by the number of sheep available. We suggest that Germany’s wolf conservation policy should focus on alternative nonlethal interventions, enforcement and standardization of intervention monitoring, and promotion of wolf tolerance rather than on lethal control of wolf population size

Data from: Cattle selectivity by leopards suggests ways to mitigate human-leopard conflict

Addressing widespread livestock losses to carnivores requires information on which livestock categories are preferentially selected. We analyzed an individual-based database of cattle grazing in forest (n = 932) and having been killed (n = 70) by leopards (Panthera pardus) in the Hyrcanian forest, Iran. We calculated Jacobs’ selectivity index for cattle age, sex and coloration across four scales: the study area as a whole, three sites, nine villages and 60 cattle owners. Naturally colored cattle were significantly preferred by leopards at all scales in comparison to black and black-and-white cattle and there was also a preference for males and juveniles at the study area level. More research is needed to see whether cattle losses would decrease if the share of naturally colored individuals in local holdings was reduced and males and juveniles had limited access to forest. We conclude that phenotypic and biological characteristics of livestock can affect depredation and appeal for more research in this direction, particularly within the predator-prey framework