Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods

Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard

Climate change and potential distribution of potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop cultivation in Pakistan using Maxent

The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization

ROLE OF SONOELASTOGRAPHY IN THE EVALUATION OF THYROID NODULES

Thyroid nodular disease is one of the most common endocrine disorder. B mode ultrasound provides useful characteristic information about thyroid nodules but it has noticeably low accuracy to differentiate benign from malignant. Fine needle aspiration is widely been used in differentiation of benign and malignant thyroid nodules but it is an invasive procedure. Sonoelastography is a newly developed non- invasive technique which uses ultrasound and gives information about the stiffness of tissue. It estimates the hardness of thyroid lesions in association with adjacent tissues and assists in the differentiation of benign from malignant nodules.Objective:The objective of this study was to evaluate the role sonoelastography in the evaluation of thyroid nodules. Methods:This study was conducted on 72 Patients of age between 18-80 years of either gender at Institute of Nuclear Medicine and Oncology Lahore (INMOL) Pakistan, from 25 March 2019 to 23 August 2019 for duration of five months. Elastography was performed using Toshiba Aplio 500.  Patient having one or more solid nodules in thyroid on conventional ultrasound examination were included in the study and the sonoelastography of nodules was confirmed with histopathological findings of nodules. Results: A total 72 participants were included in our study. The mean age of participants was 42.11 years. Gender distribution shows that 51.4% (n=37) were male and 48.6% (n=35) were female. Sonoelastographic strain ratio of 55.6% nodules (n=40) was more than 2.1(malignant feature) and 44.4% nodules (n=32) have less than 2.1 (benign). Histopathology showed 56.9% of participants (n=41) have malignant nodules and 43.1% (n=31) have benign nodules. The comparison of sonoelastography and histopathology in reference with nodules shows that the results of histopathology and sonoelastography were same and support each other. Conclusion: Sonoelastography is non-invasive and cost-effective imaging technique to diagnose thyroid nodules either benign or malignant. Keywords: Ultrasound Elastography, Thyroid Nodules, Benign, Malignant, Fine Needle Aspiration. DOI: 10.7176/JHMN/66-08 Publication date:September 30th 201

Aging Mechanisms: Linking oxidative stress, obesity and inflammation

Aging cannot be defeated in anyway in the world even having new and advanced technology. But molecular mechanism is a successful method to control aging. Many complex and multifunctional factors are the main cause of aging. It is evident that the studies regarding cellular, genetic, and pathological and biochemical changes are exploring more and more pathways linking various diverse mechanism explaining aging. Implications of basic mechanisms of aging for improving both longevity and quality of life in human needs a clear understanding and takes a long time. However, reactive oxygen species (ROS) indicate a growing body even in the presence of fundamental mechanisms. According to oxidative stress theory, advanced and permanent addition of oxidative damage on critical aspects of aging process instigated by ROS influences. Telomeres theory is another, new aging theory that holds many promising possibilities for the field of anti-aging medicine. The theory was originated from the surge of technological breakthroughs in genetics and genetic engineering. Telomeres have also been found related to obesity. Obesity also leads to accelerated cellular processes. A “causative agent in aging” is considered inflammation that underlies a mechanism showing that for survival acute inflammatory response is necessary but long term exposure to different antigens than predicted by evolution cause low-grade inflammatory status which intern contributes to age-associated illness and death. The condition known as “inflammaging”

Teacher Discourse and Student Engagement in ESL Learning Settings

This study examines the intricate relationship between teacher discourse and student engagement in English as a Second Language (ESL) classrooms within Karachi schools. Grounded in a qualitative research design, the investigation explores the impact of three key dimensions of teacher discourse—Clarity and Comprehensibility, Encouragement and Support, and Interactive Communication—on student engagement. Classroom observations were conducted across a diverse range of schools to capture a comprehensive view of these interactions. The findings of the study affirm the crucial role that teacher discourse plays in shaping student engagement. The analysis reveals that when teachers communicated with clarity and employed comprehensible language, student engagement levels were notably elevated. Such environments facilitated active participation and comprehension, aligning with previous research highlighting the fundamental importance of clarity in pedagogy. Encouragement and support from teachers emerged as another influential factor in promoting emotional and cognitive engagement. The positive atmosphere created by supportive teacher behavior fostered a greater willingness among students to contribute, ask questions, and partake in discussions. This underscores the significance of emotional connection within the learning environment. The study also underscores the value of interactive communication between teachers and students. Classrooms characterized by dialogic interactions and open-ended questions witnessed heightened levels of student engagement. These findings extend existing literature on the benefits of interactive teaching methods, showcasing their potential to enhance both cognitive and emotional engagement. The implications of these findings underscore the importance of incorporating effective teacher discourse strategies into educational practices to cultivate more engaging ESL learning environments

Isolation of herbicidal compounds, quercetin and β-caryophyllene, from Digera muricata

Synthetic herbicides are available to control weeds but these herbicides have many concerns. Eco-friendly herbicides obtained from plants is a better alternative to synthetic ones. Despite that the herbicidal activity of Digera muricata extracts have been reported but there are no studies regarding the isolation and identification of herbicidal compounds from D. muricata. Herein, we are reporting the identification of two herbicidal compounds from chloroform extract obtained from D. muricata. The chloroform extract was initially tested on the germination and early growth of two weeds; Avena fatua and Melilotus indicus as well as wheat where a significant decline in % age germination and growth of both weeds was observed. Among the 8 different fractions obtained using different chromatographic techniques, fractions 2 and 7 were found to be phytotoxic to both test weeds. The herbicidal efficacy was tested at 200, 150, 100, 50, 25 μg/ml. These two fractions were further purified on Reversed Phase High Pressure Liquid Chromatography (RP-HPLC). Fraction 2 yielded 3 sub-fractions (2A, 2B & 2C), while fraction 7 yielded 2 sub-fractions (7A, 7B). Fraction 2B caused 43%, 53%, and 57% decline in seed germination, shoot dry weight, and root dry weight of A. fatua, while these values against M. indicus were 50%, 81% and 84%, respectively. Fraction 7A caused 25%, 36%, and 42% decline in seed germination, shoot dry weight, and root dry weight of A. fatua, while these values against M. indicus were 35%, 62% and 69%, respectively, at 200 μg/ml conc. Cyanazine caused 61% and 50% reduction in seed germination of A. fatua and M. indicus, respectively. The herbicidal effects of these two fractions were found nonsignificant against wheat. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR), elemental analysis (C,H) and Nuclear Magnetic Resonanace (NMR) analyses of these two fractions depicted the presence of quercetin (Fraction 2B) and β-caryophyllene (Fraction 7A). In post emergence bioassays, the isolated compounds caused significant decrease in the biomass of both weeds. Plasma membrane integrity assays revealed electrolyte leakage in treated leaf discs of both weeds. It was concluded that quercetin and β-caryophyllene isolated from D. muricata exhibited toxicity towards both test weeds without harming wheat

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. METHODS: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FINDINGS: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57\ub74 (95% uncertainty interval 50\ub74-65\ub71) million cases globally in 2019 to 152\ub78 (130\ub78-175\ub79) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0\ub71% [-7\ub75 to 10\ub78]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1\ub769 [1\ub764-1\ub773]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1\ub767 [1\ub752-1\ub785]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. INTERPRETATION: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures