Assessing simulation ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur

Evolutionary response of Caragana (Fabaceae) to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift and Asian interior aridification

Caragana is endemic to temperate Asia, with most species distributed on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and in Northwestern China. Consequently its biogeography should be hypothesized to have been affected by QTP uplift. To examine the biogeography of Caragana in relation to QTP uplift and consequent interior aridification, we conducted molecular dating analyses based on three genes (ITS, cpDNA trnS-trnG and rbcL). Results from relaxed Bayesian BEAST, relaxed Bayesian Multidivtime, and PL (penalized likelihood) indicate that QTP uplift, especially the onset of Himalayan motion at 21-17 Ma, triggered the origin of Caragana (with estimated ages 16-14 Ma). The subsequent QTP rapid uplift at 8 Ma is inferred to have driven the evolution and diversification of the three major clades of Caragana: section Caragana (northern China and the Junggar-Altai-Sayan region), section Frutescentes (Central Asia), and sections Bracteolatae and Jubatae, centered in the QTP. A rapid and active speciation process occurring in the QTP intense uplift at 3.4-1.8 Ma, is indicated by the chronogram

Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set

When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than $(1.65\pm0.02) \times 10^9~{M_\odot}$ using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind' pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Ap

Prevention and early detection of prostate cancer

This Review was sponsored and funded by the International Society of Cancer Prevention (ISCaP), the European Association of Urology (EAU), the National Cancer Institute, USA (NCI) (grant number 1R13CA171707-01), Prostate Cancer UK, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) (grant number C569/A16477), and the Association for International Cancer Research (AICR