Updated projections of UK heat-related mortality using policy-relevant global warming levels and socio-economic scenarios

High temperatures and heatwaves are associated with significant impacts on human health. With continued global temperature increases, extreme thresholds relevant to health will be exceeded more frequently. This study provides an updated spatial analysis of heat-related mortality for the UK, using the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) at 1.5 to 4°C global warming levels, and embedding population and demographic data from the recently released UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (UK-SSPs). Climate change will lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the future, exacerbated by increased exposure due to increasing population. We find an increase from ~1,400 average annual deaths in the near-past (1990-2019) (95% CI: 1299 to 1486), to ~2,500 (2304 to 2794), ~3,700 (3280 to 4214), ~8,200 (7376 to 9072) and >18,000 (16,690 to 20,394) average annual deaths at 1.5, 2, 3 and 4°C respectively (assuming no adaptation). This is considered a high-end estimate due to the assumption of high population growth (UK-SSP5). Older populations are shown to be most vulnerable. A large proportion of heat-related deaths (76% (74 to 79%) with 1.5°C global warming) are attributed to more moderate (1-5°C) increases above regional temperature thresholds as opposed to extremes. Our results provide a timely update that can serve as a first step to supporting future UK climate policy and risk assessments. Future research considering nonlinearity in the health response to heat exposure is vital

Changes in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition:a model-data comparison

International audienceAbstract. The global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth's oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of 10 ocean and 4 land-surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully coupled, low-resolution climate model simulations from two models (HadCM3BL and FOAM). Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. While certain climate model simulations show moderate–good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data before and after the EOT, in general the model simulations do not capture the absolute latitudinal temperature gradient shown by the data, being too cold, particularly at high latitudes. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support for previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to the opening of the Drake Passage

Learning from arts and humanities approaches for building climate resilience in the UK

Summary:•This chapter shares insights from five arts and humanities-led UK Climate Resilience Programme projects, presenting key learnings and pathways for future research and policy interventions. •We highlight the significant potential of place-based arts and humanities approaches for working with and engaging communities in building climate resilience and driving climate action.•We underline the importance of generating genuine two-way dialogue, knowledge exchange and co-creation between academics, practitioners, and community members. •We point to the importance of robustly and reflexively assessing the effectiveness of arts and humanities-led engagement.•We argue that working collectively to develop more integrated climate and arts/cultural policy is imperative in supporting future long-term climate resilience

Learning from organisational embedding for climate resilience

The term ‘resilience’, which is integral to the UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR), has been used increasingly in academic, practice and public discourse around climate change, and crises more generally. The term’s appeal comes from its ability to frame crises not as uncontrollable and uncertain phenomena to be feared, but as challenges over which one can triumph, with the potential for improving society

The Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition:an Antarctic perspective

Antarctica underwent a complex evolution over the course of the Cenozoic, which influenced the history of the Earth’s climate system. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is a divide of this history when the ice-free ‘greenhouse world’ transitioned to the ‘icehouse’ with the glaciation of Antarctica. Prior to this, Antarctica experienced warm climates, peaking during Early Eocene when tropical-like conditions existed at the margins of the continent where geological evidence is present. Climate signals in the geological record show that the climate then cooled, but not enough to allow the existence of significant ice until the latest Eocene. Glacial deposits from several areas around the continental margin indicate that ice was present by the earliest Oligocene. This matches the major oxygen isotope positive shift captured by marine records. On land, vegetation was able to persist, but the thermophylic plants of the Eocene were replaced by shrubby vegetation with the southern beech Nothofagus, mosses and ferns, which survived in tundra-like conditions. Coupled climate–ice sheet modelling indicates that changing levels of atmospheric CO2 controlled Antarctica’s climate and the onset of glaciation. Factors such as mountain uplift, vegetation changes, ocean gateway opening and orbital forcing all played a part in cooling the polar climate, but only when CO2 levels reached critical thresholds was Antarctica tipped into an icy glacial world.CE acknowledges funding by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitivity (grants CTM2017-89711-C2-1/2-P), cofunded by the European Union through FEDER funds. IS was supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Project 180102280. A.T. Kennedy Asser was supported by NERC funding (grant no. NE/L002434/1) Edward Gasson is funded by the Royal Society. EG is funded by the Royal Society. AS thanks the European Research Council for Consolidator Grant #771497 (SPANC)

Putting climate resilience in its place: developing spatially literate climate adaptation initiatives

Understanding the socioeconomic, cultural, historical and political nuances of a place is essential for realising effective local decision-making for climate action. People are central to understanding place-based risk and resilience, with consideration of inequality and vulnerability required for effective place-based climate adaptation. Temporality is important. Place is not fixed, but changes over time, together with the community that inhabits it. Discussing and sharing community knowledge increases the likelihood of successful creation and implementation of climate adaptation practices. A sense of place can be deployed to build connections between people, across policy and between scales

Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

Summer heat extremes in the UK pose a risk to health (amongst other sectors) and this is exacerbated by localised socio-economic factors that contribute to vulnerability. Here, regional climate model simulations from the UK Climate Projections are used to assess how different elements of extreme heat will vary across the UK in the future under global mean surface temperature warming levels of +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C above pre-industrial. Heat stress metrics incorporating daily maximum and minimum temperature, temperature variability and vapour pressure are included. These show qualitatively similar spatial patterns for the recent past, with the most pronounced heat hazards found in south-eastern regions of the UK. Projected heat hazard changes across the UK are not homogeneous, with southern regions (e.g. Greater London, South East) showing greater increases in maximum temperatures and northern regions (e.g. Scotland and Northern Ireland) showing greater increases in humidity. With +3.0 °C warming, the relative change in combined heat hazards is found to be greatest in the south-western UK, however, in absolute terms, south-eastern regions will still experience the greatest hazards. When combined with socio-economic factors, hotspots of high heat stress risk emerge in parts of London, the Midlands and eastern England along with southern and eastern coastal regions. Weighting of different heat risk factors is subjective and to this end we have developed and made available an interactive app which allows users to assess sensitivities and uncertainties in the projected UK heat risk

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y–1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies