De la crisis a la recuperación: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias de la Gran Recesión

¿Qué desató la mayor desaceleración global que se haya visto en más de seis décadas? Y, ¿cómo puede lograrse una recuperación sostenible? De la crisis a la recuperación, dentro de la colección en español Esenciales OCDE (Insights en inglés), hace un recuento de las causas, el desarrollo y las consecuencias de la “Gran Recesión”. Explica de qué manera la acumulación global de liquidez, aunada a una mala regulación, provocó una crisis financiera que rápidamente se extendió a la economía real, destruyendo empresas y disparando el desempleo a los niveles más altos en décadas. Aunque parece que lo peor de la crisis ha pasado, se antoja poco probable volver pronto al crecimiento sólido y se requerirán varios años para que el empleo retorne a las tasas previas a la crisis. Dados los altos niveles de deuda pública y privada, los recortes y el ahorro quizá se conviertan en la máxima prioridad, lo cual significa que los efectos de la recesión seguirán sintiéndose en los años por venir

Desigualdad de ingresos. La brecha entre ricos y pobres

Desigualdad de ingresos. La brecha entre ricos y pobres trata de uno de los temas políticos más polémicos y acuciantes en la actualidad. La brecha entre ricos y pobres está en su punto más alto en 30 años, el 10% más rico gana 9.6 veces más que el 10% más pobre, en otras palabras: pocos ganan mucho y muchos ganan poco. Como consecuencia, la cohesión social se debilita y se pierde la confianza en las instituciones. En esta obra, se analiza la manera en que la desigualdad de ingresos se ha desarrollado en el tiempo, tanto en los países desarrollados como en desarrollo, y explica por qué está creciendo la brecha, estudia las consecuencias sociales y económicas. La evidencia muestra que una gran desigualdad desacelera el crecimiento económico y reduce la movilidad social. En este estudio, se exploran políticas públicas para asegurar una distribución más equitativa; revisar el efecto de la tecnología sobre la fuerza de trabajo; orientar la política fiscal redistributiva sobre los ingresos y el patrimonio; abrir las oportunidades de educación y a la atención médica de alta calidad; y fomentar el empleo bien remunerado

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model

The Airway Microbiome at Birth.

Alterations of pulmonary microbiome have been recognized in multiple respiratory disorders. It is critically important to ascertain if an airway microbiome exists at birth and if so, whether it is associated with subsequent lung disease. We found an established diverse and similar airway microbiome at birth in both preterm and term infants, which was more diverse and different from that of older preterm infants with established chronic lung disease (bronchopulmonary dysplasia). Consistent temporal dysbiotic changes in the airway microbiome were seen from birth to the development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants. Genus Lactobacillus was decreased at birth in infants with chorioamnionitis and in preterm infants who subsequently went on to develop lung disease. Our results, taken together with previous literature indicating a placental and amniotic fluid microbiome, suggest fetal acquisition of an airway microbiome. We speculate that the early airway microbiome may prime the developing pulmonary immune system, and dysbiosis in its development may set the stage for subsequent lung disease

A face for all seasons:searching for context-specific leadership traits and discovering a general preference for perceived health

Previous research indicates that followers tend to contingently match particular leader qualities to evolutionarily consistent situations requiring collective action (i.e., context-specific cognitive leadership prototypes) and information processing undergoes categorization which ranks certain qualities as first-order context-general and others as second-order context-specific. To further investigate this contingent categorization phenomenon we examined the “attractiveness halo”—a first-order facial cue which significantly biases leadership preferences. While controlling for facial attractiveness, we independently manipulated the underlying facial cues of health and intelligence and then primed participants with four distinct organizational dynamics requiring leadership (i.e., competition vs. cooperation between groups and exploratory change vs. stable exploitation). It was expected that the differing requirements of the four dynamics would contingently select for relatively healthier- or intelligent-looking leaders. We found perceived facial intelligence to be a second-order context-specific trait—for instance, in times requiring a leader to address between-group cooperation—whereas perceived health is significantly preferred across all contexts (i.e., a first-order trait). The results also indicate that facial health positively affects perceived masculinity while facial intelligence negatively affects perceived masculinity, which may partially explain leader choice in some of the environmental contexts. The limitations and a number of implications regarding leadership biases are discussed

Ecological strategies in California chaparral: Interacting effects of soils, climate, and fire on specific leaf area

Background: High values of specific leaf area (SLA) are generally associated with high maximal growth rates in resource-rich conditions, such as mesic climates and fertile soils. However, fire may complicate this relationship since its frequency varies with both climate and soil fertility, and fire frequency selects for regeneration strategies (resprouting versus seeding) that are not independent of resource-acquisition strategies. Shared ancestry is also expected to affect the distribution of resource-use and regeneration traits. Aims: We examined climate, soil, and fire as drivers of community-level variation in a key functional trait, SLA, in chaparral in California. Methods: We quantified the phylogenetic, functional, and environmental non-independence of key traits for 87 species in 115 plots. Results: Among species, SLA was higher in resprouters than seeders, although not after phylogeny correction. Among communities, mean SLA was lower in harsh interior climates, but in these climates it was higher on more fertile soils and on more recently burned sites; in mesic coastal climates, mean SLA was uniformly high despite variation in soil fertility and fire history. Conclusions: We conclude that because important correlations exist among both species traits and environmental filters, interpreting the functional and phylogenetic structure of communities may require an understanding of complex interactive effects

Post-fire comparisons of forest floor and soil carbon, nitrogen, and mercury pools with fire severity indices

Forest fires are important contributors of C, N, and Hg to the atmosphere. In the fall of 2011, a large wildfire occurred in northern Minnesota and we were able to quickly access the area to sample the forest floor and mineral soil for C, N, and Hg pools. When compared with unburned reference soils, the mean loss of C resulting from fire in the forest floor and the upper 20 cm of mineral soil was 19.3 Mg ha−1, for N the mean loss was 0.17 Mg ha−1, and for Hg the mean loss was 9.3 g ha−1. To assess the influence of fire severity on the forest floor and mineral soils, we used an established method that included a soil burn severity index and a tree burn severity index with a gradient of severity classes. It was apparent that the unburned reference class had greater forest floor C, N, and Hg pools and higher C/N ratios than the burned classes. The C/N ratios of the 0- to 10- and 10- to 20-cm mineral soils in the unburned reference class were also greater than in the burned classes, indicating that a small amount of C was lost and/or N was gained, potentially through leaching unburned forest floor material. However, with a couple of exceptions, the severity classes were unable to differentiate the forest floor and mineral soil impacts among soil burn and tree burn severity indices. Developing burn severity indices that are reflective of soil elemental impacts is an important first step in scaling ecosystem impacts both within and across fire events

Core outcome domains for early-phase clinical trials of sound-, psychology-, and pharmacology-based interventions to manage chronic subjective tinnitus in adults: the COMIT'ID study protocol for using a Delphi process and face-to-face meetings to establish consensus

Background: The reporting of outcomes in clinical trials of subjective tinnitus indicates that many different tinnitus-related complaints are of interest to investigators, from perceptual attributes of the sound (e.g. loudness) to psychosocial impacts (e.g. quality of life). Even when considering one type of intervention strategy for subjective tinnitus, there is no agreement about what is critically important for deciding whether a treatment is effective. The main purpose of this observational study is therefore to develop Core Outcome Domain Sets for the three different intervention strategies (sound, psychological, and pharmacological) for adults with chronic subjective tinnitus that should be measured and reported in every clinical trial of these interventions. Secondary objectives are to identify the strengths and limitations of our study design for recruiting and reducing attrition of participants, and to explore uptake of the core outcomes. Methods: The ‘Core Outcome Measures in Tinnitus: International Delphi’ (COMIT’ID) study will use a mixed methods approach that incorporates input from healthcare users at the pre-Delphi stage, a modified three round Delphi survey and final consensus meetings (one for each intervention). The meetings will generate recommendations by stakeholder representatives on agreed Core Outcome Domain Sets specific to each intervention. A subsequent step will establish a common cross-cutting Core Outcome Domain Set by identifying the common outcome domains included in all three intervention-specific Core Outcome Domain Sets. To address the secondary objectives, we will gather feedback from participants about their experience of taking part in the Delphi process. We aspire to conduct an observational cohort study to evaluate uptake of the core outcomes in published studies at 7 years following core outcome set publication. Discussion: The COMIT’ID study aims to develop a Core Outcome Domain Set that are agreed as critically important for deciding whether a treatment for subjective tinnitus is effective. Such a recommendation would help to standardise future clinical trials worldwide and so we will determine if participation increases use of the core outcome set in the long term. Trial registration: This project has been registered in the database of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) initiative