Information Diffusion, Facebook Clusters, and the Simplicial Model of Social Aggregation: A Computational Simulation of Simplicial Diffusers for Community Health Interventions

By integrating the simplicial model of social aggregation with existing research on opinion leadership and diffusion networks, this article introduces the constructs of simplicial diffusers (mathematically defined as nodes embedded in simplexes; a simplex is a socially bonded cluster) and simplicial diffusing sets (mathematically defined as minimal covers of a simplicial complex; a simplicial complex is a social aggregation in which socially bonded clusters are embedded) to propose a strategic approach for information diffusion of cancer screenings as a health intervention on Facebook for community cancer prevention and control. This approach is novel in its incorporation of interpersonally bonded clusters, culturally distinct subgroups, and different united social entities that co-exist within a larger community into a computational simulation to select sets of simplicial diffusers with the highest degree of information diffusion for health intervention dissemination. The unique contributions of the article also include seven propositions and five algorithmic steps for computationally modeling the simplicial model with Facebook data

Modeling the impact of patient treatment preference on health outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Aims: Model how moving from current disease-modifying drug (DMD) prescribing patterns for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) observed in the United Kingdom (UK) to prescribing patterns based on patient preferences would impact health outcomes over time. Materials and methods: A cohort-based Markov model was used to measure the effect of DMDs on long-term health outcomes for individuals with RRMS. Data from a discrete choice experiment were used to estimate the market shares of DMDs based on patient preferences (i.e. preference shares). These preference shares and real-world UK market shares were used to calculate the effect of prescribing behavior on relapses, disability progression, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The incremental benefit of patient-centered prescribing over current practices for the UK RRMS population was then estimated; scenario and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Results: Compared to current prescribing practices, when UK patients with RRMS were treated following patient preferences, health outcomes were improved. This population was expected to experience 501,690 relapses and gain 1,003,263 discounted QALYs over 50 years under patient-centered prescribing practices compared to 538,417 relapses and 958,792 discounted QALYs under current practices (−6.8% and +4.6%, respectively). Additionally, less disability progression was observed when prescribed treatment was based on patient preferences. In a scenario analysis where only oral treatments were considered, the results were similar, although the magnitude of benefit was smaller. Number of relapses was most sensitive to how the annualized relapse rate was modeled; disability progression was most sensitive to mortality rate assumptions. Limitations: Treatment efficacy estimates applied to various models in this study were based on data derived from clinical trials, rather than real-world data; the impact of patient-centered prescribing on treatment adherence and/or switching was not modeled. Conclusions: The population of UK RRMS patients may experience overall health gains if patient preferences are better incorporated into prescribing practices

Text Messages With Financial Incentives for Men With Obesity : A Randomized Clinical Trial

Peer reviewe

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease. an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention

Association between depressive symptoms and incident cardiovascular diseases

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, setting and participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant-data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162,036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and UK Biobank (UKB; 401,219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposure: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D; range 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). UKB recorded the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2; range 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and CVD (composite of CHD and stroke). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log-CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162,036 participants from the ERFC, 73% were female, mean (SD) age at baseline was 63 (9) years, and 5,078 CHD and 3,932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5-years). Associations with CHD, stroke and CVD were log-linear. HRs (95%CI) per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.07 (1.03-1.11), 1.05 (1.01-1.10), and 1.06 (1.04-1.08). This reflects, 36 versus 29 CHD events, 28 versus 25 stroke events, and 63 versus 54 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in the highest versus lowest quintile of CES-D (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 versus 1). Among 401,219 participants from the UKB, 55% were female, mean baseline age was 56 (8) years, and 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1-years). HRs per 1SD higher depression score for CHD, stroke and CVD respectively were 1.11 (1.08-1.14), 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.10 (1.08-1.13). This reflects, 21 versus 14 CHD events, 15 versus 10 stroke events, and 36 versus 25 CVD events per 1000 individuals over 10 years in those with PHQ2 ≥4 versus 0. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563,255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels below the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge and Sarah Spackman are funded by a British Heart Foundation Programme Grant (RG/18/13/33946). Steven Bell was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Tom Bolton is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (NIHR BTRU-2014-10024). Angela Wood is supported by a BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and by the EC-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart). John Danesh holds a British Heart Foundation Professorship and a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Award.* *The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care

Risk Factors, Subsequent Disease Onset, and Prognostic Impact of Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all-cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population-based cohorts. During a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was &gt;70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03–2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31–2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk

IMBeR into the future Science Plan and Implementation Strategy 2016-2025

The Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, formerly the Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER1) project, is a global environmental change research initiative. Since its start in 2005, IMBeR has advanced understanding about potential marine environmental effects of global change, and the impacts and linkages to human systems at multiple scales. It is apparent that complex environmental issues and associated societal/sustainability choices operate at and across the interfaces of natural and social sciences and the humanities, and require both basic, curiosity-driven research and problem-driven, policy-relevant research. Collaborative, disciplinary, interdisciplinary, transdisciplinary and integrated research that addresses key ocean science issues generated by and/or impacting society is required to provide evidence-based knowledge and guidance, along with options for policy-makers, managers and marine-related communities, to help achieve sustainability of the marine realm under global change. This recognition underlies a new vision, “Ocean sustainability under global change for the benefit of society”, to guide IMBeR research for the next decade (2016-2025). This vision recognises that the evolution of marine ecosystems (including biogeochemical cycles and human systems) is linked to natural and anthropogenic drivers and stressors, as articulated in the new IMBeR research goal to, “Understand, quantify and compare historic and present structure and functioning of linked ocean and human systems to predict and project changes including developing scenarios and options for securing or transitioning towards ocean sustainability”. To implement its new vision and goal in the next decade, IMBeR’s mission is to, “Promote integrated marine research and enable capabilities for developing and implementing ocean sustainability options within and across the natural and social sciences, and communicate relevant information and knowledge needed by society to secure sustainable, productive and healthy oceans”. This Science Plan and Implementation Strategy provides a 10-year (2016-2025) marine research agenda for IMBeR. It is developed around three Grand Challenges (GC, see Graphical Executive Summary) focusing on climate variability, global change and drivers and stressors. The qualitative and quantitative understanding of historic and present ocean variability and change (Grand Challenge I) are the basis for scenarios, projections and predictions of the future (Grand Challenge II). These are linked in Grand Challenge III to understand how humans are causing the variability and changes, and how they, in turn, are impacted by these changes, including feedbacks between the human and ocean systems. Priority research areas with overarching and specific research questions are identified for each Grand Challenge. The Grand Challenges are supplemented with Innovation Challenges (IC, see graphical executive summary) that focus on new topics for IMBeR where research is needed and where it is believed that major achievements can be made within three to five years. The Innovation Challenges also provide a means for IMBeR to adjust its focus as major science discoveries are made and new priorities arise, especially regarding scientific innovations

Adapting interventions to new contexts-the ADAPT guidance

Implementing interventions with a previous evidence base in new contexts might be more efficient than developing new interventions for each context. Although some interventions transfer well, effectiveness and implementation often depend on the context. Achieving a good fit between intervention and context then requires careful and systematic adaptation. This paper presents new evidence and consensus informed guidance for adapting and transferring interventions to new contexts

Text messages with financial incentives for men with obesity. A randomized clinical trial

Importance: Effective weight loss interventions are needed for men with obesity. Objective : To determine whether an intervention that combined text messaging with financial incentives attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group and whether an intervention of text messaging alone attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group. Design, Setting, and Participants: An assessor-blinded randomized clinical trial conducted in Belfast, Bristol, and Glasgow areas in the UK. A total of 585 men with body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more were enrolled between July 2021 and May 2022. Final follow-up occurred June 2023. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 12 months of behavioral focused text messages combined with financial incentives (n = 196), 12 months of behavioral focused text messages alone (n= 194), or a waiting list (control group; n= 195). The financial incentive consisted of a monetary reward that was lost if weight loss targets were not met. All participants received weight management information and a pedometer at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 primary comparisons were the 12-month comparison of within-participant weight change between the text messaging with financial incentive group and the control group and the comparison between the text messaging alone group and the control group (minimum clinically important difference, 3%). The P value defined for statistical significance was P < .025 for each comparison. Results: Of the 585 men (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [13.3] years; mean weight, 118.5 [19.9] kg; mean BMI, 37.7 [5.7]; 525 [90%] White), 227 (39%) lived in postal code areas with lower socioeconomic status, and 426 (73%) completed the 12-month follow-up. At the 12-month follow-up, compared with the control group, the mean percent weight change was significantly greater in the text messaging with financial incentive group (mean difference, −3.2%; 97.5% CI, −4.6% to −1.9%; P < .001) but was not significantly greater in the text messaging alone group (mean difference, −1.4%; 97.5% CI, −2.9% to 0.0, P = .05). The mean (SD) weight changes were −5.7 (7.4) kg for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −3.0 (7.5) kg for the text messaging alone group, and −1.5 (6.6) kg for the control group. The 12-month mean (SD) percentage weight changes from baseline were −4.8% (6.1%) for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −2.7% (6.3%) for text messaging alone group, and −1.3% (5.5%) for the control group. Of 366 adverse events reported, the most common were infections (83 [23%]). Of the 23 serious adverse events (6.3%), 12 (52%) occurred in the text messaging with financial incentives group, 5 (22%) in the texts messaging alone group, and 6 (26%) in the control group. None were considered related to participating in a trial group. Conclusion and Relevance: Among men with obesity, an intervention with text messaging with financial incentive significantly improved weight loss compared with a control group, whereas text messaging alone was not significantly better than the control condition. These findings support text messaging combined with financial incentives to attain weight loss in men with obesityOutput Status: Forthcoming/Available Onlin