Frontogenesis of the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone

A diagnostic analysis of the climatological annual mean and seasonal cycle of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) is performed by applying an ocean frontogenetic function (OFGF) to the ocean mixing layer (OML). The OFGF reveals that the meridional confluence and vertical tilting terms are the most dominant contributors to the frontogenesis of the ABFZ. The ABFZ shows a well-pronounced semiannual cycle with two maximum (minimum) peaks in April–May and November–December (February–March and July–August). The development of the two maxima of frontogenesis is due to two different physical processes: enhanced tilting from March to April and meridional confluence from September to October. The strong meridional confluence in September to October is closely related to the seasonal southward intrusion of tropical warm water to the ABFZ that seems to be associated with the development of the Angola Dome northwest of the ABFZ. The strong tilting effect from March to April is attributed to the meridional gradient of vertical velocities, whose effect is amplified in this period due to increasing stratification and shallow OML depth. The proposed OFGF can be viewed as a tool to diagnose the performance of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) that generally fail at realistically simulating the position of the ABFZ, which leading to huge warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic.publishedVersio

Observed and Projected Hydroclimate Changes in the Andes

The Andes is the most biodiverse region across the globe. In addition, some of the largest urban areas in South America are located within this region. Therefore, ecosystems and human population are affected by hydroclimate changes reported at global, regional and local scales. This paper summarizes progress of knowledge about long-term trends observed during the last two millennia over the entire Andes, with more detail for the period since the second half of the 20th century, and presents a synthesis of climate change projections by the end of the 21st century. In particular, this paper focuses on temperature, precipitation and surface runoff in the Andes. Changes in the Andean cryosphere are not included here since this particular topic is discussed in other paper in this Frontiers special issue, and elsewhere (e.g. IPCC,2019b). While previous works have reviewed the hydroclimate of South America and particular sectors (i.e., Amazon and La Plata basins, the Altiplano, Northern South America, etc.) this review includes for the first time the entire Andes region, considering all latitudinal ranges: tropical (North of 27°S), subtropical (27°S−37°S) and extratropical (South of 37°S). This paper provides a comprehensive view of past and recent changes, as well as available climate change projections, over the entire Andean range. From this review, the main knowledge gaps are highlighted and urgent research necessities in order to provide more mechanistic understanding of hydroclimate changes in the Andes and more confident projections of its possible changes in association with global climate change.Fil: Pabón Caicedo, José Daniel. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Arias, Paola A.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Espinoza, Jhan Carlo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Goubanova, Katerina. Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas; ChileFil: Lavado Casimiro, Waldo. No especifíca;Fil: Masiokas, Mariano Hugo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentin

Role of wind stress in driving SST biases in the tropical Atlantic

Coupled climate models used for long-term future climate projections and seasonal or decadal predictions share a systematic and persistent warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropical Atlantic. This study attempts to better understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the development of systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic using the so-called Transpose-CMIP protocol in a multi-model context. Six global climate models have been used to perform seasonal forecasts starting both in May and February over the period 2000-2009. In all models, the growth of SST biases is rapid. Significant biases are seen in the first month of forecast and, by six months, the root-mean-square SST bias is 80% of the climatological bias. These control experiments show that the equatorial warm SST bias is not driven by surface heat flux biases in all models, whereas in the south-eastern Atlantic the solar heat flux could explain the setup of an initial warm bias in the first few days. A set of sensitivity experiments with prescribed wind stress confirm the leading role of wind stress biases in driving the equatorial SST bias, even if the amplitude of the SST bias is model dependent. A reduced SST bias leads to a reduced precipitation bias locally, but there is no robust remote effect on West African Monsoon rainfall. Over the south-eastern part of the basin, local wind biases tend to have an impact on the local SST bias (except in the high resolution model). However, there is also a non-local effect of equatorial wind correction in two models. This can be explained by sub-surface advection of water from the equator, which is colder when the bias in equatorial wind stress is corrected. In terms of variability, it is also shown that improving the mean state in the equatorial Atlantic leads to a beneficial intensification of the Bjerknes feedback loop. In conclusion, we show a robust effect of wind stress biases on tropical mean climate and variability in multiple climate models

Frontogenesis of the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone

A diagnostic analysis of the climatological annual mean and seasonal cycle of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) is performed by applying an ocean frontogenetic function (OFGF) to the ocean mixing layer (OML). The OFGF reveals that the meridional confluence and vertical tilting terms are the most dominant contributors to the frontogenesis of the ABFZ. The ABFZ shows a well-pronounced semiannual cycle with two maximum (minimum) peaks in April–May and November–December (February–March and July–August). The development of the two maxima of frontogenesis is due to two different physical processes: enhanced tilting from March to April and meridional confluence from September to October. The strong meridional confluence in September to October is closely related to the seasonal southward intrusion of tropical warm water to the ABFZ that seems to be associated with the development of the Angola Dome northwest of the ABFZ. The strong tilting effect from March to April is attributed to the meridional gradient of vertical velocities, whose effect is amplified in this period due to increasing stratification and shallow OML depth. The proposed OFGF can be viewed as a tool to diagnose the performance of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) that generally fail at realistically simulating the position of the ABFZ, which leading to huge warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic

Sensitivity of the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model

International audienceThe impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO2, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO2 scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru-Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature

SST subseasonal variability in the central Benguela upwelling system as inferred from satellite observations (1999–2009)

International audienceSubseasonal variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the central Benguela upwelling system is investigated using TMI satellite-derived data over the period 1999–2009. Spatial patterns and time-frequency characteristics of subseasonal variability are documented based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) decomposition and wavelet analysis. Despite the land contamination of the TMI satellite data within approximately 100 km off the coast the first EOF of SST anomalies allows characterizing the coastal upwelling variability at the subseasonal scale. Two regimes of variability are evidenced: a submonthly (2–30 days) regime with a dominant 11 days oscillation and a lower frequency intraseasonal (30–90 days) regime with a dominant 61 days oscillation. Both regimes are modulated, to a large extent, by the local surface wind stress and are consistent with Ekman dynamics. The seasonality of the relationship between wind stress and SST for submonthly (intraseasonal) regime is characterized by a marked semiannual (annual) cycle, which is explained in terms of the impact of seasonal change of the upper ocean stratification on the vertical advection process. The wind-driven SST subseasonal variability is shown to be associated with eastward propagating disturbances in the midlatitudes corresponding to a wave number 4. The results also suggest an important role of the Antarctic Oscillation in modulating the intraseasonal wind-driven SST variability. The characteristics of the equatorial intraseasonal Kelvin waves are documented in order to discuss possible impact of remote oceanic forcing on SST variability along the coast in the Benguela upwelling system

Downscaling biogeochemistry in the Benguela eastern boundary current

Dynamical downscaling is developed to better predict the regional impact of global changes in the framework of scenarios. As an intermediary step towards this objective we used the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale a low resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM; IPSL-CM4) for simulating the recent-past dynamics and biogeochemistry of the Benguela eastern boundary current. Both physical and biogeochemical improvements are discussed over the present climate scenario (1980-1999) under the light of downscaling. Despite biases introduced through boundary conditions (atmospheric and oceanic), the physical and biogeochemical processes in the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) have been improved by the ROMS model, relative to the IPSL-CM4 simulation. Nevertheless, using coarse-resolution AOGCM daily atmospheric forcing interpolated on ROMS grids resulted in a shifted SST seasonality in the southern BUS, a deterioration of the northern Benguela region and a very shallow mixed layer depth over the whole regional domain. We then investigated the effect of wind downscaling on ROMS solution. Together with a finer resolution of dynamical processes and of bathyrnetric features (continental shelf and Walvis Ridge), wind downscaling allowed correction of the seasonality, the mixed layer depth, and provided a better circulation over the domain and substantial modifications of subsurface biogeochemical properties. It has also changed the structure of the lower trophic levels by shifting large offshore areas from autotrophic to heterotrophic regimes with potential important consequences on ecosystem functioning. The regional downscaling also improved the phytoplankton distribution and the southward extension of low oxygen waters in the Northern Benguela. It allowed simulating low oxygen events in the northern BUS and highlighted a potential up scaling effect related to the nitrogen irrigation from the productive BUS towards the tropical/subtropical South Atlantic basin. This study shows that forcing a downscaled ocean model with higher resolution winds than those issued from an AOGCM, results in improved representation of physical and biogeochemical processes

Assessing the impact of downscaled winds on a regional ocean model simulation of the Humboldt system

International audienceSimulating the oceanic circulation in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is a challenging issue due to the paucity of wind stress products of a sufficiently high spatial resolution to simulate the observed upwelling dynamics. In this study, we present the results of regional simulations of the Humboldt current system (Peru and Chile coasts) to assess the value of a statistical downscaling model of surface forcing. Twin experiments that differ only from the momentum flux forcing are carried out over the 1992-2000 period that encompasses the major 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña event. It is shown that the mean biases of the oceanic circulation can be drastically reduced simply substituting the mean wind field of NCEP reanalysis by a higher resolution mean product (QuikSCAT). The statistical downscaling model improves further the simulations allowing more realistic intraseasonal and interannual coastal undercurrent variability, which is notoriously strong off Central Peru and Central Chile. Despite some limitations, our results suggest that the statistical approach may be useful to regional oceanic studies of present and future climates

Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system

International audienceThe Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences

Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model

International audienceThe key aspect of the ocean circulation off Peru-Chile is the wind-driven upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters that promote a rich marine ecosystem. It has been suggested that global warming may be associated with an intensification of upwelling-favorable winds. However, the lack of high-resolution long-term observations has been a limitation for a quantitative analysis of this process. In this study, we use a statistical downscaling method to assess the regional impact of climate change on the sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region as simulated by the global coupled general circulation model IPSL-CM4. Taking advantage of the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind product and of the NCEP reanalysis data, a statistical model based on multiple linear regressions is built for the daily mean meridional and zonal wind at 10 m for the period 2000-2008. The large-scale 10 m wind components and sea level pressure are used as regional circulation predictors. The skill of the downscaling method is assessed by comparing with the surface wind derived from the ERS satellite measurements, with in situ wind observations collected by ICOADS and through cross-validation. It is then applied to the outputs of the IPSL-CM4 model over stabilized periods of the pre-industrial, 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 IPCC climate scenarios. The results indicate that surface along-shore winds off central Chile (off central Peru) experience a significant intensification (weakening) during Austral winter (summer) in warmer climates. This is associated with a general decrease in intra-seasonal variability