Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations

The ocean carbon store plays a vital role in setting the carbon response to emissions and variability in the carbon cycle. However, due to the ocean's strong regional and temporal variability, sparse carbon observations limit our understanding of historical carbon changes. Ocean temperature and salinity profiles are more widespread and rapidly expanding due to autonomous programmes, and so we explore how temperature and salinity profiles can provide information to reconstruct ocean carbon inventories with ensemble optimal interpolation. Here, ensemble optimal interpolation is used to reconstruct ocean carbon using synthetic Argo temperature and salinity observations, with examples for both the top 100 m and top 2000 m carbon inventories. When considering reconstructions of the top 100 m carbon inventory, coherent relationships between upper-ocean carbon, temperature, salinity, and atmospheric CO2 result in optimal solutions that reflect the controls of undersaturation, solubility, and alkalinity. Out-of-sample reconstructions of the top 100 m show that, in most regions, the trend in ocean carbon and over 60 % of detrended variability can be reconstructed using local temperature and salinity measurements, with only small changes when considering synthetic profiles consistent with irregular Argo sampling. Extending the method to reconstruct the upper 2000 m reveals that model uncertainties at depth limit the reconstruction skill. The impact of these uncertainties on reconstructing the carbon inventory over the upper 2000 m is small, and full reconstructions with historical Argo locations show that the method can reconstruct regional inter-annual and decadal variability. Hence, optimal interpolation based on model relationships combined with hydrographic measurements can provide valuable information about global ocean carbon inventory changes.</p

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y–1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models, and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Abstract. Results from the fully-, biogeochemically-, and radiatively-coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % per year (1pctCO2) from its pre-industrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of two feedback parameters which characterize the coupled carbon-climate system. These feedback parameters quantify the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate. The results are based on eight comprehensive Earth system models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and eleven models from the sixth CMIP (CMIP6). The comparison of model results from two CMIP phases shows that, for both land and ocean, the model mean values of the feedback parameters and their multi-model spread has not changed significantly across the two CMIP phases. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The sensitivity of feedback parameters to the three different ways in which they may be calculated is shown and, consistent with existing studies, the most relevant definition is that calculated using results from the fully- and biogeochemically-coupled configurations. Based on these two simulations simplified expressions for the feedback parameters are obtained when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically-coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters allows identification of the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models. </jats:p

Reproducible and relocatable regional ocean modelling: fundamentals and practices

In response to an increasing demand for bespoke or tailored regional ocean modelling configurations, we outline fundamental principles and practices that can expedite the process to generate new configurations. The paper develops the principle of reproducibility and advocates adherence by presenting benefits to the community and user. The elements of this principle are reproducible workflows and standardised assessment, with additional effort over existing working practices being balanced against the added value generated. The paper then decomposes the complex build process, for a new regional ocean configuration, into stages and presents guidance, advice and insight for each component. This advice is compiled from across the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) user community and sets out principles and practises that encompass regional ocean modelling with any model. With detailed and region-specific worked examples in Sects. 3 and 4, the linked companion repositories and DOIs all target NEMOv4. The aim of this review and perspective paper is to broaden the user community skill base and to accelerate development of new configurations in order to increase the time available for exploiting the configurations

Reproducible and relocatable regional ocean modelling: Fundamentals and practices

In response to an increasing demand for bespoke or tailored regional ocean modelling configurations, we outline fundamental principles and practices that can expedite the process to generate new configurations. The paper develops the principle of Reproducibility and advocates adherence by presenting benefits to the community and user. The elements to this principle are reproducible workflows and standardised assessment, with additional effort over existing working practices being balanced against the added value generated. The paper then decomposes the complex build process, for a new regional ocean configuration, into stages and presents guidance, advice and insight on each component. This advice is compiled from across the user community, is presented in the context of NEMOv4, though aims to transcend NEMO version. Detail and region specific worked examples are linked in companion repositories and DOIs. The aim is to broaden the user community skill base, and to accelerate development of new configurations in order to increase available time exploiting the configurations

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models, and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Abstract. Results from the fully-, biogeochemically-, and radiatively-coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % per year (1pctCO2) from its pre-industrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of two feedback parameters which characterize the coupled carbon-climate system. These feedback parameters quantify the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate. The results are based on eight comprehensive Earth system models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and eleven models from the sixth CMIP (CMIP6). The comparison of model results from two CMIP phases shows that, for both land and ocean, the model mean values of the feedback parameters and their multi-model spread has not changed significantly across the two CMIP phases. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The sensitivity of feedback parameters to the three different ways in which they may be calculated is shown and, consistent with existing studies, the most relevant definition is that calculated using results from the fully- and biogeochemically-coupled configurations. Based on these two simulations simplified expressions for the feedback parameters are obtained when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically-coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters allows identification of the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models. </jats:p

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2

The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordThe Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon formed part of the Met Office Climate Data Challenge Hackathon series during 2021, bringing together around 100 UK early career researchers from a wide range of environmental disciplines. The purpose was to interrogate the under-utilised but currently most advanced climate model inter-comparison project datasets to develop new research ideas, create new networks and outreach opportunities in the lead up to COP26. Experts in different science fields, supported by a core team of scientists and data specialists at Bristol, had the unique opportunity to explore together interdisciplinary environmental topics summarised in this article

Effect of Tides on the Indonesian Seas Circulation and Their Role on the Volume, Heat and Salt Transports of the Indonesian Throughflow

The effect of tides on the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is explored in a regional ocean model of South East Asia. Our model simulations, with and without tidal forcing, reveal that tides drive only a modest increase in the ITF volume, heat and salt transports toward the Indian Ocean. However, tides drive large regional changes in these transports through Lombok Strait, Ombai Strait and the Timor Sea, and regulate the partitioning of the ITF amongst them. The effect of tidal mixing on the salinity and temperature profiles within the Indonesian Seas drives a small decrease in the heat and salt transports toward the Indian Ocean in all three exit passages. In contrast, the tidal residual circulation due to the interaction between the tides and the topography and stratification (including the effects of tidal mixing on the circulation) leads to a large decrease in the transports toward the Indian Ocean through the Lombok and Ombai straits, but a large increase through the Timor Sea. Hence, the small net contribution from tides to the ITF's volume, heat and salt transports is due to a compensation between large, but opposing tidal residual transports at the combined Lombok and Ombai straits and in the Timor Sea. Our results indicate that explicit representation of tides, often missing in Earth system models, is necessary to accurately capture the ITF's pathway and so the tracer transport from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean