The Impact of Ethanol Production on Spatial Grain Market Relationships

cointegration, ethanol, grain markets, spatial relationships, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,

Long-Term Profile Variability of Double-Peaked Emmission Lines in AGNs

An increasing number of AGNs exhibit broad, double-peaked Balmer emission lines, which arise from the outer regions of the accretion disk which fuels the AGN. The line profiles vary on timescales of 5--10 years. Our group has monitored a set of 20 double-peaked emitters for the past 8 years (longer for some objects). Here we describe a project to characterize the variability patterns of the double-peaked H alpha line profiles and compare with those of two simple models: a circular disk with a spiral arm and an elliptical disk.Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure, to appear in the proceedings of "The Interplay among Black Holes, Stars and ISM in Galactic Nuclei", IAU 222, eds. T. Storchi Bergmann, L.C. Ho, and H.R. Schmit

Optical Spectral Properties of Swift BAT Hard X-ray Selected Active Galactic Nuclei Sources

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) survey of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) is providing an unprecedented view of local AGNs ( = 0.03) and their host galaxy properties. In this paper, we present an analysis of the optical spectra of a sample of 64 AGNs from the 9-month survey, detected solely based on their 14-195 keV flux. Our analysis includes both archived spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and our own observations from the 2.1-m Kitt Peak National Observatory telescope. Among our results, we include line ratio classifications utilizing standard emission line diagnostic plots, [O III] 5007 A luminosities, and H-beta derived black hole masses. As in our X-ray study, we find the type 2 sources to be less luminous (in [O III] 5007 A and 14-195 keV luminosities) with lower accretion rates than the type 1 sources. We find that the optically classified LINERs, H II/composite galaxies, and ambiguous sources have the lowest luminosities, while both broad line and narrow line Seyferts have similar luminosities. From a comparison of the hard X-ray (14-195 keV) and [O III] luminosities, we find that both the observed and extinction-corrected [O III] luminosities are weakly correlated with X-ray luminosity. In a study of the host galaxy properties from both continuum fits and measurements of the stellar absorption indices, we find that the hosts of the narrow line sources have properties consistent with late type galaxies.Comment: 84 pages, 20 figures, 17 tables, accepted in Ap

The Radial Structure of SNR N103B

We report on the results from a Chandra ACIS observation of the young, compact, supernova remnant N103B. The unprecedented spatial resolution of Chandra reveals sub-arcsecond structure, both in the brightness and in spectral variations. Underlying these small-scale variations is a surprisingly simple radial structure in the equivalent widths of the strong Si and S emission lines. We investigate these radial variations through spatially resolved spectroscopy using a plane-parallel, non-equilibrium ionization model with multiple components. The majority of the emission arises from components with a temperature of 1 keV: a fully ionized hydrogen component; a high ionization timescale (n_e*t > 10^12 s cm^-3) component containing Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe; and a low ionization timescale (n_e*t ~ 10^{11} s cm^-3) O, Ne, and Mg component. To reproduce the strong Fe Kalpha line, it is necessary to include additional Fe in a hot (> 2 keV), low ionization (n_e*t ~ 10^10.8 s cm^-3) component. This hot Fe may be in the form of hot Fe bubbles, formed in the radioactive decay of clumps of 56Ni. We find no radial variation in the ionization timescales or temperatures of the various components. Rather, the Si and S equivalent widths increase at large radii because these lines, as well as those of Ar and Ca, are formed in a shell occupying the outer half of the remnant. A shell of hot Fe is located interior to this, but there is a large region of overlap between these two shells. In the inner 30% of the remnant, there is a core of cooler, 1 keV Fe. We find that the distribution of the ejecta and the yields of the intermediate mass species are consistent with model prediction for Type Ia events.Comment: 34 pages, including 7 tables and 7 figures, Accepted by Ap

Long-Term Profile Variability in Active Galactic Nuclei with Double-Peaked Balmer Emission Lines

An increasing number of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) exhibit broad, double-peaked Balmer emission lines,which represent some of the best evidence for the existence of relatively large-scale accretion disks in AGNs. A set of 20 double-peaked emitters have been monitored for nearly a decade in order to observe long-term variations in the profiles of the double-peaked Balmer lines. Variations generally occur on timescales of years, and are attributed to physical changes in the accretion disk. Here we characterize the variability of a subset of seven double-peaked emitters in a model independent way. We find that variability is caused primarily by the presence of one or more discrete "lumps" of excess emission; over a timescale of a year (and sometimes less) these lumps change in amplitude and shape, but the projected velocity of these lumps changes over much longer timescales (several years). We also find that all of the objects exhibit red peaks that are stronger than the blue peak at some epochs and/or blueshifts in the overall profile, contrary to the expectations for a simple, circular accretion disk model, thus emphasizing the need for asymmetries in the accretion disk. Comparisons with two simple models, an elliptical accretion disk and a circular disk with a spiral arm, are unable to reproduce all aspects of the observed variability, although both account for some of the observed behaviors. Three of the seven objects have robust estimates of the black hole masses. For these objects the observed variability timescale is consistent with the expected precession timescale for a spiral arm, but incompatible with that of an elliptical accretion disk. We suggest that with the simple modification of allowing the spiral arm to be fragmented, many of the observed variability patterns could be reproduced.Comment: 74 pages, 4 tables, 35 figure

Effective Feedback to Improve Primary Care Prescribing Safety (EFIPPS) a pragmatic three-arm cluster randomised trial:designing the intervention (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01602705)

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The IeDEA Harmonist Data Toolkit: A Data Quality and Data Sharing Solution for a Global HIV Research Consortium.

We describe the design, implementation, and impact of a data harmonization, data quality checking, and dynamic report generation application in an international observational HIV research network. The IeDEA Harmonist Data Toolkit is a web-based application written in the open source programming language R, employs the R/Shiny and RMarkdown packages, and leverages the REDCap data collection platform for data model definition and user authentication. The Toolkit performs data quality checks on uploaded datasets, checks for conformance with the network's common data model, displays the results both interactively and in downloadable reports, and stores approved datasets in secure cloud storage for retrieval by the requesting investigator. Including stakeholders and users in the design process was key to the successful adoption of the application. A survey of regional data managers as well as initial usage metrics indicate that the Toolkit saves time and results in improved data quality, with a 61% mean reduction in number of error records in a dataset. The generalized application design allows the Toolkit to be easily adapted to other research networks

Not So Fast Kepler-1513: A Perturbing Planetary Interloper in the Exomoon Corridor

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) can be induced by a range of physical phenomena, including planet-planet interactions, planet-moon interactions, and stellar activity. Recent work has shown that roughly half of moons would induce fast TTVs with a short period in the range of two-to-four orbits of its host planet around the star. An investigation of the Kepler TTV data in this period range identified one primary target of interest, Kepler-1513 b. Kepler-1513 b is a $8.05^{+0.58}_{-0.40}$ $R_\oplus$ planet orbiting a late G-type dwarf at $0.53^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$ AU. Using Kepler photometry, this initial analysis showed that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs were consistent with a moon. Here, we report photometric observations of two additional transits nearly a decade after the last Kepler transit using both ground-based observations and space-based photometry with TESS. These new transit observations introduce a previously undetected long period TTV, in addition to the original short period TTV signal. Using the complete transit dataset, we investigate whether a non-transiting planet, a moon, or stellar activity could induce the observed TTVs. We find that only a non-transiting perturbing planet can reproduce the observed TTVs. We additionally perform transit origami on the Kepler photometry, which independently applies pressure against a moon hypothesis. Specifically, we find that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs are consistent with an exterior non-transiting $\sim$Saturn mass planet, Kepler-1513 c, on a wide orbit, $\sim$5$\%$ outside a 5:1 period ratio with Kepler-1513 b. This example introduces a previously unidentified cause for planetary interlopers in the exomoon corridor, namely an insufficient baseline of observations.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures. Accepted to MNRAS. Code available at https://github.com/dyahalomi/Kepler151