Data associated with 'Projections of Domestic Water Demand over the Long-Term: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley'

The dataset consists of files used in carrying out analysis reported in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management paper published online in September 2019. Please note that these files do not contain Domestic Water User Survey data for which Thames Water Utilities Ltd. retains Intellectual Property Rights. Users should contact co-author Ross Henderson at TWUL for permission to access the SPSS saved system file containing the processed DWUS data. The “Water Demand Projections Final” provides summary data on projected numbers of households by type and Water Resource Zone. The underpinning population projections data are available via http://www.ethpop.org or the UK Data Archive via https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-852508 SN (Study Number): 852508 Title: NEWETHPOP - Ethnic population projections for UK local areas 2011-2061. The methods for transforming projected populations into projected households are described in Rees, P., Clark, S. and Nawaz, R. (2019) Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long-Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley. Population, Space and Place., in press

A Global Analysis of Deforestation in Moist Tropical Forest Protected Areas.

Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of global forest loss over the period 2000-2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a-1 forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a-1) compared to Africa (0.1% a-1), the Neotropics (0.1% a-1) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a-1). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance ([Formula: see text]) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia ([Formula: see text]), moderately successful in the Neotropics ([Formula: see text]) and Africa ([Formula: see text]), but ineffective in Asia ([Formula: see text]). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia

Pervasive Rise of Small-scale Deforestation in Amazonia

Understanding forest loss patterns in Amazonia, the Earth’s largest rainforest region, is critical for effective forest conservation and management. Following the most detailed analysis to date, spanning the entire Amazon and extending over a 14-year period (2001–2014), we reveal significant shifts in deforestation dynamics of Amazonian forests. Firstly, hotspots of Amazonian forest loss are moving away from the southern Brazilian Amazon to Peru and Bolivia. Secondly, while the number of new large forest clearings (>50 ha) has declined significantly over time (46%), the number of new small clearings (<1 ha) increased by 34% between 2001–2007 and 2008–2014. Thirdly, we find that small-scale low-density forest loss expanded markedly in geographical extent during 2008–2014. This shift presents an important and alarming new challenge for forest conservation, despite reductions in overall deforestation rates

Limited biomass recovery from gold mining in Amazonian forests

1. Gold mining has rapidly increased across the Amazon Basin in recent years, especially in the Guiana shield, where it is responsible for >90% of total deforestation. However, the ability of forests to recover from gold mining activities remains largely unquantified. 2. Forest inventory plots were installed on recently abandoned mines in two major mining regions in Guyana, and re‐censused 18 months later, to provide the first ground‐based quantification of gold mining impacts on Amazon forest biomass recovery. 3. We found that woody biomass recovery rates on abandoned mining pits and tailing ponds are among the lowest ever recorded for tropical forests, with close to no woody biomass recovery after 3–4 years. 4. On the overburden sites (i.e. areas not mined but where excavated soil is deposited), however, above‐ground biomass recovery rates (0.4–5.4 Mg ha−1 year−1) were within the range of those recorded in other secondary forests across the Neotropics following abandonment of pastures and agricultural lands. 5. Our results suggest that forest recovery is more strongly limited by severe mining‐induced depletion of soil nutrients, especially nitrogen, than by mercury contamination, due to slowing of growth in nutrient‐stripped soils. 6. We estimate that the slow recovery rates in mining pits and ponds currently reduce carbon sequestration across Amazonian secondary forests by ~21,000 t C/year, compared to the carbon that would have accumulated following more traditional land uses such as agriculture or pasture. 7. Synthesis and applications. To achieve large‐scale restoration targets, Guyana and other Amazonian countries will be challenged to remediate previously mined lands. The recovery process is highly dependent on nitrogen availability rather than mercury contamination, affecting woody biomass regrowth. The significant recovery in overburden zones indicates that one potential active remediation strategy to promote biomass recovery may be to backfill mining pits and ponds with excavated soil

Forest fire history in Amazonia inferred from intensive soil charcoal sampling and radiocarbon dating

This study was supported by funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC, NE/N011570/1 and NE/R017980/1) and a radiocarbon dating allocation (allocation 2122.0818) from the NERC-funded NEIF Radiocarbon Laboratory.Fire has a historical role in tropical forests related to past climate and ancient land use spanning the Holocene; however, it is unclear from charcoal records how fire varied at different spatiotemporal scales and what sampling strategies are required to determine fire history and their effects. We evaluated fire variation in structurally intact, terra-firme Amazon forests, by intensive soil charcoal sampling from three replicate soil pits in sites in Guyana and northern and southern Peru. We used radiocarbon (14C) measurement to assess (1) locally, how the timing of fires represented in our sample varied across the surface of forest plots and with soil depth, (2) basin-wide, how the age of fires varies across climate and environmental gradients, and (3) how many samples are appropriate when applying the 14C approach to assess the date of last fire. Considering all 14C dates (n = 33), the most recent fires occurred at a similar time at each of the three sites (median ages: 728–851 cal years BP), indicating that in terms of fire disturbance at least, these forests could be considered old-growth. The number of unique fire events ranged from 1 to 4 per pit and from 4 to 6 per site. Based upon our sampling strategy, the N-Peru site—with the highest annual precipitation—had the most fire events. Median fire return intervals varied from 455 to 2,950 cal years BP among sites. Based on available dates, at least three samples (1 from the top of each of 3 pits) are required for the sampling to have a reasonable likelihood of capturing the most recent fire for forests with no history of a recent fire. The maximum fire return interval for two sites was shorter than the time since the last fire, suggesting that over the past ∼800 years these forests have undergone a longer fire-free period than the past 2,000–3,500 years. Our analysis from terra-firme forest soils helps to improve understanding of changes in fire regime, information necessary to evaluate post-fire legacies on modern vegetation and soil and to calibrate models to predict forest response to fire under climate change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment of the Impacts of El Niño on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle: Theoretical Framework, Scenarios, and Implications

Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle

Predicting the loss of forests, carbon stocks and biodiversity driven by a neotropical ‘gold rush’

The loss of tropical forests represents a major threat to biodiversity. With accelerating deforestation in large parts of the Amazon, the Guiana Shield region, with its large expanse of closed forest cover, has the potential to play a crucial role in both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. However, the region is now facing increasing deforestation pressures, primarily from artisanal gold mining activities concentrated in the nation of Guyana. To identify areas of Guyana at the highest risk of deforestation over the next 25 years, we employed a spatio-temporal modelling approach that accounted for the stochastic and contagious nature of deforestation. Our model predicted a 9 % net decrease in total forest cover by 2043. While the primary drivers of deforestation were mining and human settlements, protected areas were shown to reduce the probability of deforestation. Therefore, we assessed the potential impact of a proposed expansion of the protected area network in Guyana, on forest loss, carbon stocks and habitat loss for the country's most threatened forest vertebrates. Establishing the proposed protected areas would reduce forest loss by 17 %, predicted habitat losses by an average of 1.9 % per vertebrate group, and aboveground carbon emissions by 466,968 t over the next 25 years. These findings highlight the utility of using predictive models to identify areas at risk of future deforestation, which can contribute to the development of effective strategies against tropical forest loss, biodiversity loss and climate change

A bird’s eye view over ecosystem services in Natura 2000 sites across Europe

Recent ‘New Conservation’ approaches called for more ecosystem services (ES) emphasis in conservation. We analysed data from 3757 Natura 2000 special protection areas (SPAs) and translated positive and negative impacts listed by conservation managers into indicators of the use of nine provisioning, regulating and cultural ES. Overall, the use of ES is considered by SPA managers to affect conservation goals more negatively than positively. ES associated with livestock keeping and fodder production are recorded as having the highest fraction of positive impacts on SPAs, ranging from 88% and 78% in the Boreal biogeographic region to 20% and 6% in the Mediterranean. The use of ES varied according to dominant habitat class, highlighting the dependence of specific ES on associated ecosystem functions. For instance, fibre production was the predominant ES throughout forest habitats while crop, fodder and livestock exhibit similar patterns of dominance across agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the use of wild food and recreation activities are seen as causing mainly negative effects across all habitats. Our analysis suggests that most uses of ES result in negative effects on conservation goals. These outcomes should be considered when implementing future conservation strategies

Climate benefits of intact Amazon forests and the biophysical consequences of disturbance

Tropical forests have an important regulating influence on local and regional climate, through modulating the exchange of moisture and energy between the land and the atmosphere. Deforestation disrupts this exchange, though the climatic consequences of progressive, patch-scale deforestation of formerly intact forested landscapes have not previously been assessed. Remote sensing datasets of land surface and atmospheric variables were used to compare the climate responses of Amazon evergreen broadleaf forests that lost their intact status between 2000 and 2013. Clear gradients in environmental change with increasing disturbance were observed. Leaf area index (LAI) showed progressively stronger reductions as forest loss increased, with evapotranspiration (ET) showing a comparative decline. These changes in LAI and ET were related to changes in temperature (T), with increased warming as deforestation increased. Severe deforestation of intact Amazon forest, defined as areas where canopy cover was reduced below 70 %, was shown to have increased daytime land surface T by 0.44 °C over the study period. Differences between intact and disturbed forests were most pronounced during the dry season, with severely deforested areas warming as much as 1.5 °C. Maintenance of canopy cover was identified as an important factor in minimising the impacts of disturbance. Overall, the results highlight the climate benefits provided by intact tropical forests, providing further evidence that protecting intact forests is of utmost importance

Relationships between species richness and ecosystem services in Amazonian forests strongly influenced by biogeographical strata and forest types

Despite increasing attention for relationships between species richness and ecosystem services, for tropical forests such relationships are still under discussion. Contradicting relationships have been reported concerning carbon stock, while little is known about relationships concerning timber stock and the abundance of non-timber forest product producing plant species (NTFP abundance). Using 151 1-ha plots, we related tree and arborescent palm species richness to carbon stock, timber stock and NTFP abundance across the Guiana Shield, and using 283 1-ha plots, to carbon stock across all of Amazonia. We analysed how environmental heterogeneity influenced these relationships, assessing differences across and within multiple forest types, biogeographic regions and subregions. Species richness showed significant relationships with all three ecosystem services, but relationships differed between forest types and among biogeographical strata. We found that species richness was positively associated to carbon stock in all biogeographical strata. This association became obscured by variation across biogeographical regions at the scale of Amazonia, resembling a Simpson’s paradox. By contrast, species richness was weakly or not significantly related to timber stock and NTFP abundance, suggesting that species richness is not a good predictor for these ecosystem services. Our findings illustrate the importance of environmental stratification in analysing biodiversity-ecosystem services relationships