The dataset consists of files used in carrying out analysis reported in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management paper published online in September 2019. Please note that these files do not contain Domestic Water User Survey data for which Thames Water Utilities Ltd. retains Intellectual Property Rights. Users should contact co-author Ross Henderson at TWUL for permission to access the SPSS saved system file containing the processed DWUS data. The “Water Demand Projections Final” provides summary data on projected numbers of households by type and Water Resource Zone. The underpinning population projections data are available via http://www.ethpop.org or the UK Data Archive via https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-852508 SN (Study Number): 852508 Title: NEWETHPOP - Ethnic population projections for UK local areas 2011-2061. The methods for transforming projected populations into projected households are described in Rees, P., Clark, S. and Nawaz, R. (2019) Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long-Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley. Population, Space and Place., in press

Clark, Stephen

Henderson, Ross

Kalamandeen, Michelle

Lambert, Chris

McDonald, Adrian

Mitchell, Gordon

Nawaz, Rizwan

Rees, Philip

English

Research Data Leeds Repository (University of Leeds)

1  SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION For the paper Rizwan Nawaz, Philip Rees, Stephen Clark, Gordon Mitchell, Adrian McDonald, Michelle Kalamandeen, Chris Lambert and Ross Henderson Projections of Domestic Water Demand over the Long-Term: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management  This document provides supplemental information for the published paper.  Tables and Figures are referenced in the paper by numbers preceded by “S”.  TABLE OF CONTENTS  1 SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION      2 1.1 Observed Household Consumption (Table S1)     2 1.2 Demand forecast empirical prediction intervals (Table S2)    3 1.3 The Water Resource Zones (WRZs) of Thames Water (Figure S1)   4 1.4 The framework for projecting domestic water demand (Figure S2)   5 1.5 Total domestic water consumption in the six WRZs (Figure S3)   6   2  Table S1. Observed PHC (litres per day) for property types and WRZ by ethnicity and occupant number, Thames Water DWUS, 2006-2015 Property Type Ethnicity Other Ethnic South Asian WRZ Occupants 1 2 3 4 5 6+ 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Detached             SWA 165 374 463 483 534 670   446 713 492 839   London 172 357 452 495 590 787 567 474 539 754 1342   Kennet Valley 202 339 423 487 618 916   399 284 519     SWOX 204 378 474 479 702 628       630     Guildford 216 362 478 448 477         518     Henley 204 365 378 586 564 533             Average 192 364 449 483 609 707 567 451 561 618 1208   Semi-detached SWA 221 307 389 475 543 362 311 505 798 913 1511 1110 London 218 314 408 511 626 688 237 399 593 654 710 942 Kennet Valley 165 289 393 383 525 601 209 287 425 538 648 683 SWOX 188 311 389 469 530 537 182 234   316     Guildford 252 298 350 462 651 464             Henley 133 394 401 667                 Average 203 309 397 473 591 626 222 365 566 698 968 869 Terraced SWA 201 277 426 417 511 662 152 245 514 632 584   London 199 300 427 487 541 824 310 575 725 849 943 889 Kennet Valley 190 299 359 415 630 795     328     565 SWOX 163 289 373 429 465 715   348 470 764     Guildford 230 256 495 393 638         529 574 432 Henley 174 372 380 422                 Average 192 296 415 465 540 811 283 491 630 797 911 861 Flats SWA 166 273 546 538     95 610 473 448     London 181 291 354 424 479 486 204 289 335 460 185 663 Kennet Valley 134 276 331         357         SWOX 220 403 437 386     390 545 998 1290     Guildford 197 332 215 352 237   195     267     Henley                         Average 180 294 364 421 473 486 218 317 350 472 185 663 All Property Types SWA 196 308 438 463 532 650 151 397 586 691 1272 1110 London 190 306 405 490 569 767 259 458 550 768 902 900 Kennet Valley 167 305 393 426 575 675 209 342 386 532 648 651 SWOX 185 327 410 460 568 602 369 323 536 680     Guildford 223 315 422 438 583 464 195     345 574 432 Henley 162 381 384 562 564 533             Average 189 312 407 469 568 710 255 419 541 721 939 861 Notes:   1. PHC = Per Household Consumption, daily, averaged over 2006-2015. 2. WRZ = Water Resource Zone. SWA = Slough Wycombe & Aylesbury, SWOX = Swindon & Oxfordshire. 3. PHCs in bold are based on sample numbers  50. Blank cells have no households in the sample. Source:  Computed by the authors from Thames Water’s Domestic Water User Survey (DWUS).   3  Table S2. Empirical prediction intervals (EPIs) for forecasts of domestic water consumption in millions of litres per day, Thames Water Region, by scenario, for selected years Scenario EPI 2011 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101 Business as Usual 90%  1426 1868 2319 2659 2821  Mid 1225 1350 1708 2048 2271 2332  10%   1274 1548 1777 1882 1842 Light Green 90%  1411 1725 2072 2366 2502  Mid 1225 1336 1578 1830 2021 2068  10%   1260 1430 1588 1675 1634 Dark Green 90%  1399 1611 1875 2055 2166  Mid 1225 1324 1473 1656 1755 1790  10%   1249 1335 1437 1455 1414 Note: The EPIs are computed for the projected populations for Water Resource Zones summed to a total for the Thames Water Region (Fig.M1). The derivation of the EPIs is described in Rees and Clark (2018), based on a set of historical projection errors for local authorities with small, medium and large populations reported in UKWIR (2015). A piece wise linear function was derived to relate EPIs to population size and a linear function used to relate projection error to length of the forecasting period.  The EPIs estimate the uncertainty in water demand forecasts due to uncertainty in population and household forecasts.    4   Label Local Authority District Name Label Local Authority District Name 0 Swindon 30 Waverley 1 West Berkshire 31 East Hertfordshire 2 Reading 32 City of London and Westminster 3 Slough 33 Barnet 4 Windsor and Maidenhead 34 Bexley 5 Wokingham 35 Brent 6 Wiltshire 36 Bromley 7 Aylesbury Vale 37 Camden 8 Chiltern 38 Croydon 9 South Bucks 39 Ealing 10 Wycombe 40 Enfield 11 Epping Forest 41 Greenwich 12 Cotswold 42 Hackney 13 Basingstoke and Deane 43 Hammersmith and Fulham 14 Broxbourne 44 Haringey 15 Dacorum 45 Hounslow 16 Dartford 46 Islington 17 Gravesham 47 Kensington and Chelsea 18 Sevenoaks 48 Kingston upon Thames 19 Cherwell 49 Lambeth 20 Oxford 50 Lewisham 21 South Oxfordshire 51 Merton 22 Vale of White Horse 52 Newham 23 West Oxfordshire 53 Redbridge 24 Elmbridge 54 Richmond upon Thames 25 Epsom and Ewell 55 Southwark 26 Guildford 56 Sutton 27 Mole Valley 57 Tower Hamlets 28 Spelthorne 58 Waltham Forest 29 Tandridge 59 Wandsworth Fig. S1 The water resource zones of Thames Water and overlapping local authority districts   5    Fig. S2 The framework for projecting domestic water demand  Notes: DCLG = Department of Communities and Local Government PCC = Per Capita Consumption, PHC = Per Household Consumption (both in litres per day) Blue = Demographic modules, Fawn = Household modules, Yellow = Water demand prediction modules Green = Water demand projection modules, Purple = Projected water demand    Demographic ModelETHPOPBaseline Demographic Inputs, Demographic AssumptionsPopulation ProjectionsAge, Sex and Ethnicity389 LADs (UK), 60 LADs Thames WaterMID, HIGH, LOW2011 to 2101Projected Household Representative RatesDCLG60 LADs2011-2039Household Classification PropensitiesEthnicity, Occupancy, Property Type 60 LADs2011 CensusProjected HouseholdsAge, Sex, Ethnicity, Occupancy, Property Type 60 LADs2011 to 2101Per Household Consumption (PHCs)By Ethnicity, Property Type, Occupancy, WRZ2006-2015BaU, LG, DG ScenariosParametersIntervention Effect, Starting Year, Ending YearModelProjected PHCsWRZs2011 to 2101Projected Water DemandBy Age, Sex, Ethnicity, Occupancy, Property Type6 WRZs2011 to 2101Metering Roll OutThames WaterWRZs 2011-2031Projected Communal PopulationsDCLG 60 LADs2011-2039 Projected PCCsWRZs2011 to 2101Domestic Water User SurveyThames WaterClean Records, Impute Missing ValuesWater Demand ModelHousehold Consumption =function of Ethnicity, Property Type, Occupancy(time variable)+ function of Rateable Value, Adult #, Child #, WRZ(time fixed) 13 models tested Geo-Conversion of HouseholdsFrom 60 LADs to 6 WRZs2011 to 2101Projected Household Populations60 LADs 2011-2101LiteratureEvidence of PCC decline by Interventions6   Fig. S3 Total domestic water consumption in the six water resource zones, by scenario, 2011-2101  0510152025302011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)GUILDFORDBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green0123456789102011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)HENLEYBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green010203040506070802011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)KENNET VALLEYBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green02004006008001000120014001600180020002011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)LONDONBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green0204060801001201401601802011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)SLOUGH WYCOMBE AYLESBURYBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green0204060801001201401601802002011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101Water Consumption (Ml/day)SWINDON OXFORDSHIREBusiness as UsualLight GreenDark Green

Data associated with 'Projections of Domestic Water Demand over the Long-Term: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley'

This case study implements long-term projections of domestic water demand for a UK water company, Thames Water. Projections of per household consumption (PHC) and households were combined to yield future demand. Regression models predicted PHC using the determinants of occupancy, property type, ethnicity and rateable value, drawing on 2006–2015 domestic water-use data as a baseline. A model was developed for diffusing savings in per capita consumption (PCC), drawn from published studies of interventions. PCC declines were converted to PHC reductions using baseline ratios. Interventions were grouped into Business as Usual, Light Green (limited intervention), and Dark Green (extreme intervention) scenarios. Projected households were generated by property type, occupancy, and ethnicity for Thames Water’s resource zones for 2011 to 2101 and multiplied by projected PHCs to yield water-demand projections. By 2101, the 2011 water demand of 1,225 million liters a day grew 90% under Business as Usual, 69% under Light Green, and 46% under Dark Green

Nawaz, R

Rees, P

Clark, S

Mitchell, G

McDonald, A

Kalamandeen, M

Lambert, C

Henderson, R

White Rose Research Online

Long-Term Projections of Domestic Water Demand: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley

http://archive.researchdata.leeds.ac.uk/466/6/Supplemental_Information-R2.pdf

Data associated with 'Projections of Domestic Water Demand over the Long-Term: A Case Study of London and the Thames Valley'

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