Statistical interpretations and new findings on Variation in Cancer Risk Among Tissues

Tomasetti and Vogelstein (2015a) find that the incidence of a set of cancer types is correlated with the total number of normal stem cell divisions. Here, we separate the effects of standing stem cell number (i.e., organ or tissue size) and per stem cell lifetime replication rate. We show that each has a statistically significant and independent effect on explaining variation in cancer incidence over the 31 cases considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein. When considering the total number of stem cell divisions and when removing cases associated with disease or carcinogens, we find that cancer incidence attains a plateau of approximately 0.6% incidence for the cases considered by these authors. We further demonstrate that grouping by anatomical site explains most of the remaining variation in risk between cancer types. This new analysis suggests that cancer risk depends not only on the number of stem cell divisions but varies enormously ($\sim$10,000 times) depending on the stem cell's environment. Future research should investigate how tissue characteristics (anatomical site, type, size, stem cell divisions) explain cancer incidence over a wider range of cancers, to what extent different tissues express specific protective mechanisms, and whether any differential protection can be attributed to natural selection

Overestimating the Role of Environment in Cancers

In a recent article, Wu and colleagues (Nature 2016;529:43-47) review previous studies and present new estimates for the contribution of extrinsic factors to cancer development. The new estimates are generally close to 100%, even for bone and brain cancers that have no known associations with lifestyle and are typically not considered to be preventable. We find that the results of Wu and colleagues are incompatible with previous estimates derived from epidemiological and genetic data. We further argue that their methods are fundamentally flawed because they overlook important effects of tissue type on cancer risk. We therefore conclude that their results give a misleading view of cancer etiology and preventability. Cancer Prev Res; 9(10); 773-6. ©2016 AACR

Emergence of Variability in Isogenic Escherichia coli Populations Infected by a Filamentous Virus

The spread of epidemics not only depends on the average number of parasites produced per host, but also on the existence of highly infectious individuals. It is widely accepted that infectiousness depends on genetic and environmental determinants. However, even in clonal populations of host and viruses growing in homogeneous conditions, high variability can exist. Here we show that Escherichia coli cells commonly display high differentials in viral burst size, and address the kinetics of emergence of such variability with the non-lytic filamentous virus M13. By single-cell imaging of a virally-encoded fluorescent reporter, we monitor the viral charge distribution in infected bacterial populations at different time following infection. A mathematical model assuming autocatalytic virus replication and inheritance of bacterial growth rates quantitatively reproduces the experimental distributions, demonstrating that deterministic amplification of small host inhomogeneities is a mechanism sufficient to explain large and highly skewed distributions. This mechanism of amplification is general and may occur whenever a parasite has an initial phase of exponential growth within its host. Moreover, it naturally reproduces the shift towards higher virulence when the host is experimenting poor conditions, as observed commonly in host-parasite systems

Genetics of Resistance to the Rust Fungus Coleosporium ipomoeae in Three Species of Morning Glory (Ipomoea)

We examined the genetic basis of resistance to the rust pathogen Coleosporium ipomoea in three host species: Ipomoea purpurea, I. hederacea, and I. coccinea (Convolvulaceae). In crosses between resistant and susceptible individuals, second-generation selfed offspring segregated in ratios that did not differ statistically from the 3∶1 ratio indicative of single-gene resistance with the resistant allele dominant. One out of three crosses between resistant individuals from two different populations revealed that resistance loci differed in the two populations, as evidenced by the production of susceptible individuals among the S2 generation. These results suggest that gene-for-gene interactions contribute substantially to the dynamics of coevolution in this natural pathosystem. They also suggest that evolution of resistance to the same pathogen strain may involve different loci in different Ipomoea populations

Differences in Accumulation and Virulence Determine the Outcome of Competition during Tobacco etch virus Coinfection

Understanding the evolution of virulence for RNA viruses is essential for developing appropriate control strategies. Although it has been usually assumed that virulence is a consequence of within-host replication of the parasite, viral strains may be highly virulent without experiencing large accumulation as a consequence of immunopathological host responses. Using two strains of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) that show a negative relationship between virulence and accumulation rate, we first explored the evolution of virulence and fitness traits during simple and mixed infections. Short-term evolution experiments initiated with each strain independently confirmed the genetic and evolutionary stability of virulence and viral load, although infectivity significantly increased for both strains. Second, competition experiments between hypo- and hypervirulent TEV strains have shown that the outcome of competition is driven by differences in replication rate. A simple mathematical model has been developed to analyze the dynamics of these two strains during coinfection. The model qualitatively reproduced the experimental results using biologically meaningful parameters. Further analyses of the model also revealed a wide parametric region in which a low-fitness but hypovirulent virus can still outcompete a high-fitness but hypervirulent one. These results provide additional support to the observation that virulence and within-host replication may not necessarily be strongly tied in plant RNA viruses

Consistent Pattern of Local Adaptation during an Experimental Heat Wave in a Pipefish-Trematode Host-Parasite System

Extreme climate events such as heat waves are expected to increase in frequency under global change. As one indirect effect, they can alter magnitude and direction of species interactions, for example those between hosts and parasites. We simulated a summer heat wave to investigate how a changing environment affects the interaction between the broad-nosed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle) as a host and its digenean trematode parasite (Cryptocotyle lingua). In a fully reciprocal laboratory infection experiment, pipefish from three different coastal locations were exposed to sympatric and allopatric trematode cercariae. In order to examine whether an extreme climatic event disrupts patterns of locally adapted host-parasite combinations we measured the parasite's transmission success as well as the host's adaptive and innate immune defence under control and heat wave conditions. Independent of temperature, sympatric cercariae were always more successful than allopatric ones, indicating that parasites are locally adapted to their hosts. Hosts suffered from heat stress as suggested by fewer cells of the adaptive immune system (lymphocytes) compared to the same groups that were kept at 18°C. However, the proportion of the innate immune cells (monocytes) was higher in the 18°C water. Contrary to our expectations, no interaction between host immune defence, parasite infectivity and temperature stress were found, nor did the pattern of local adaptation change due to increased water temperature. Thus, in this host-parasite interaction, the sympatric parasite keeps ahead of the coevolutionary dynamics across sites, even under increasing temperatures as expected under marine global warming

Microbial contributions to the persistence of coral reefs

On contemplating the adaptive capacity of reef organisms to a rapidly changing environment, the microbiome offers significant and greatly unrecognised potential. Microbial symbionts contribute to the physiology, development, immunity and behaviour of their hosts, and can respond very rapidly to changing environmental conditions, providing a powerful mechanism for acclimatisation and also possibly rapid evolution of coral reef holobionts. Environmentally acquired fluctuations in the microbiome can have significant functional consequences for the holobiont phenotype upon which selection can act. Environmentally induced changes in microbial abundance may be analogous to host gene duplication, symbiont switching / shuffling as a result of environmental change can either remove or introduce raw genetic material into the holobiont; and horizontal gene transfer can facilitate rapid evolution within microbial strains. Vertical transmission of symbionts is a key feature of many reef holobionts and this would enable environmentally acquired microbial traits to be faithfully passed to future generations, ultimately facilitating microbiome-mediated transgenerational acclimatisation (MMTA) and potentially even adaptation of reef species in a rapidly changing climate. In this commentary, we highlight the capacity and mechanisms for MMTA in reef species, propose a modified Price equation as a framework for assessing MMTA and recommend future areas of research to better understand how microorganisms contribute to the transgenerational acclimatisation of reef organisms, which is essential if we are to reliably predict the consequences of global change for reef ecosystems

Inverted Expression Profiles of Sex-Biased Genes in Response to Toxicant Perturbations and Diseases

10.1371/journal.pone.0056668PLoS ONE82

Predicting the Evolution of Sex on Complex Fitness Landscapes

Most population genetic theories on the evolution of sex or recombination are based on fairly restrictive assumptions about the nature of the underlying fitness landscapes. Here we use computer simulations to study the evolution of sex on fitness landscapes with different degrees of complexity and epistasis. We evaluate predictors of the evolution of sex, which are derived from the conditions established in the population genetic literature for the evolution of sex on simpler fitness landscapes. These predictors are based on quantities such as the variance of Hamming distance, mean fitness, additive genetic variance, and epistasis. We show that for complex fitness landscapes all the predictors generally perform poorly. Interestingly, while the simplest predictor, ΔVarHD, also suffers from a lack of accuracy, it turns out to be the most robust across different types of fitness landscapes. ΔVarHD is based on the change in Hamming distance variance induced by recombination and thus does not require individual fitness measurements. The presence of loci that are not under selection can, however, severely diminish predictor accuracy. Our study thus highlights the difficulty of establishing reliable criteria for the evolution of sex on complex fitness landscapes and illustrates the challenge for both theoretical and experimental research on the origin and maintenance of sexual reproduction

Amerindian Helicobacter pylori Strains Go Extinct, as European Strains Expand Their Host Range

We studied the diversity of bacteria and host in the H. pylori-human model. The human indigenous bacterium H. pylori diverged along with humans, into African, European, Asian and Amerindian groups. Of these, Amerindians have the least genetic diversity. Since niche diversity widens the sets of resources for colonizing species, we predicted that the Amerindian H. pylori strains would be the least diverse. We analyzed the multilocus sequence (7 housekeeping genes) of 131 strains: 19 cultured from Africans, 36 from Spanish, 11 from Koreans, 43 from Amerindians and 22 from South American Mestizos. We found that all strains that had been cultured from Africans were African strains (hpAfrica1), all from Spanish were European (hpEurope) and all from Koreans were hspEAsia but that Amerindians and Mestizos carried mixed strains: hspAmerind and hpEurope strains had been cultured from Amerindians and hpEurope and hpAfrica1 were cultured from Mestizos. The least genetically diverse H. pylori strains were hspAmerind. Strains hpEurope were the most diverse and showed remarkable multilocus sequence mosaicism (indicating recombination). The lower genetic structure in hpEurope strains is consistent with colonization of a diversity of hosts. If diversity is important for the success of H. pylori, then the low diversity of Amerindian strains might be linked to their apparent tendency to disappear. This suggests that Amerindian strains may lack the needed diversity to survive the diversity brought by non-Amerindian hosts