How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening

A network approach for managing ecosystem services and improving food and nutrition security on smallholder farms

Smallholder farmers are some of the poorest and most food insecure people on Earth. Their high nutritional and economic reliance on home-grown produce makes them particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors such as pollinator loss or climate change which threaten agricultural productivity. Improving smallholder agriculture in a way that is environmentally sustainable and resilient to climate change is a key challenge of the 21st century. Ecological intensification, whereby ecosystem services are managed to increase agricultural productivity, is a promising solution for smallholders. However, smallholder farms are complex socio-ecological systems with a range of social, ecological and environmental factors interacting to influence ecosystem service provisioning. To truly understand the functioning of a smallholder farm and identify the most effective management options to support household food and nutrition security, a holistic, systems-based understanding is required. In this paper, we propose a network approach to understand, visualise and model the complex interactions occurring among wild species, crops and people on smallholder farms. Specifically, we demonstrate how networks may be used to (a) identify wild species with a key role in supporting, delivering or increasing the resilience of an ecosystem service; (b) quantify the value of an ecosystem service in a way that is relevant to the food and nutrition security of smallholders; and (c) understand the social interactions that influence the management of shared ecosystem services. Using a case study based on data from rural Nepal, we demonstrate how this framework can be used to connect wild plants, pollinators and crops to key nutrients consumed by humans. This allows us to quantify the nutritional value of an ecosystem service and identify the wild plants and pollinators involved in its provision, as well as providing a framework to predict the effects of environmental change on human nutrition. Our framework identifies mechanistic links between ecosystem services and the nutrients consumed by smallholder farmers and highlights social factors that may influence the management of these services. Applying this framework to smallholder farms in a range of socio-ecological contexts may provide new, sustainable and equitable solutions to smallholder food and nutrition security. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

Effects of caffeine on reaction time are mediated by attentional rather than motor processes

Background Caffeine has a well-established effect on reaction times (RTs) but the neurocognitive mechanisms underlying this are unclear. Methods In the present study, 15 female participants performed an oddball task after ingesting caffeine or a placebo, and electroencephalographic data were obtained. Single-trial P3b latencies locked to the stimulus and to the response were extracted and mediation models were fitted to the data to test whether caffeine’s effect on RTs was mediated by its effect on either type of P3b latencies. Results Stimulus-locked latencies showed clear evidence of mediation, with approximately a third of the effect of caffeine on RTs running through the processes measured by stimulus-locked latencies. Caffeine did not affect response-locked latencies, so could not mediate the effect. Discussion These findings are consistent with caffeine’s effect on RTs being a result of its effect on perceptual-attentional processes, rather than motor processes. The study is the first to apply mediation analysis to single-trial P3b data and this technique holds promise for mental chronometric studies into the effects of psychopharmacological agents. The R code for performing the single trial analysis and mediation analysis are included as supplementary materials

New times, new politics: history and memory during the final years of the CPGB

This article examines the relationship between collective memory, historical interpretation and political identity. It focuses on the dissolution of the Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB) as constructed through collective narrative memory, and on Marxist interpretations of history. The divisions within the party and the wider Marxist community, stretching from 1956 until 1991, were often framed around questions of historical interpretation. The events of 1989–1991 created an historical and mnemonic crisis for CPGB members who struggled to reconcile their past identities with their present situation. Unlike the outward-facing revisionism of other political parties, this was an intensely personal affair. The solution for many was to emphasise the need to find new ways to progress socialist aims, without relying on a discredited grand narrative. In contrast, other Communist parties, such as the Communist Party of Britain, which had been established (or ‘re-established’) in 1988, fared rather better. By adhering to the international party line of renewal and continued struggle, the party was able to hold its narrative together, condemning the excesses of totalitarian regimes, while reaffirming the need for international class struggle

Mobile phones are a viable option for surveying young Australian women: a comparison of two telephone survey methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Households with fixed-line telephones have decreased while mobile (cell) phone ownership has increased. We therefore sought to examine the feasibility of recruiting young women for a national health survey through random digit dialling mobile phones.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two samples of women aged 18 to 39 years were surveyed by random digit dialling fixed and mobile numbers. We compared participation rates and responses to a questionnaire between women surveyed by each contact method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After dialling 5,390 fixed-lines and 3,697 mobile numbers, 140 and 128 women were recruited respectively. Among women contacted and found to be eligible, participation rates were 74% for fixed-lines and 88% for mobiles. Taking into account calls to numbers where eligibility was unknown (e.g. unanswered calls) the estimated response rates were 54% and 45% respectively. Of women contacted by fixed-line, 97% reported having a mobile while 61% of those contacted by mobile reported having a fixed-line at home. After adjusting for age, there were no significant differences between mobile-only and fixed-line responders with respect to education, residence, and various health behaviours; however compared to those with fixed-lines, mobile-only women were more likely to identify as Indigenous (OR 4.99, 95%CI 1.52-16.34) and less likely to live at home with their parents (OR 0.09, 95%CI 0.03-0.29).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Random digit dialling mobile phones to conduct a health survey in young Australian women is feasible, gives a comparable response rate and a more representative sample than dialling fixed-lines only. Telephone surveys of young women should include mobile dialling.</p

Demystifying academics to enhance university-business collaborations in environmental science

In countries globally there is intense political interest in fostering effective university-business collaborations, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how an individual scientist's workload (i.e. specified tasks) and incentive structures (i.e. assessment criteria) may act as a key barrier to this. To investigate this an original, empirical dataset is derived from UK job specifications and promotion criteria, which distil universities' varied drivers into requirements upon academics. This work reveals the nature of the severe challenge posed by a heavily time-constrained culture; specifically, tension exists between opportunities presented by working with business and non-optional duties (e.g. administration and teaching). Thus, to justify the time to work with business, such work must inspire curiosity and facilitate future novel science in order to mitigate its conflict with the overriding imperative for academics to publish. It must also provide evidence of real-world changes (i.e. impact), and ideally other reportable outcomes (e.g. official status as a business' advisor), to feed back into the scientist's performance appraisals. Indicatively, amid 20-50 key duties, typical full-time scientists may be able to free up to 0.5 day per week for work with business. Thus specific, pragmatic actions, including short-term and time-efficient steps, are proposed in a "user guide"to help initiate and nurture a long-term collaboration between an early- to mid-career environmental scientist and a practitioner in the insurance sector. These actions are mapped back to a tailored typology of impact and a newly created representative set of appraisal criteria to explain how they may be effective, mutually beneficial and overcome barriers. Throughout, the focus is on environmental science, with illustrative detail provided through the example of natural hazard risk modelling in the insurance sector. However, a new conceptual model of academics' behaviour is developed, fusing perspectives from literature on academics' motivations and performance assessment, which we propose is internationally applicable and transferable between sectors. Sector-specific details (e.g. list of relevant impacts and user guide) may serve as templates for how people may act differently to work more effectively together

Undergraduate research. Genomics Education Partnership

The Genomics Education Partnership offers an inclusive model for undergraduate research experiences incorporated into the academic year science curriculum, with students pooling their work to contribute to international data bases

Mesh size and collection characteristics of 50-cm diameter conical plankton nets

This paper compares collection characteristics of #2-(363 µm), #10-(156 µm), and #20-(76 µm) mesh conical plankton nets: dimensions were 50-cm diameter by 1.6-m long. The #2-mesh net severely underestimated the abundances of Lake Michigan copepods and cladocerans with the exception of the largest species ( Limnocalanus macrurus ). Zooplankton abundance estimates were more similar for the #10- and #20-mesh nets collections. Nauplii, however, were severely undersampled by the #10-mesh net with abundance estimates approximately 8 to 12 times lower than for the #20-mesh net collections. Most other larger zooplankton were 50% more abundant in the 20-mesh net collections than in the #10-mesh net collections: such consistent differences occurred despite large variations in taxa size. This indicates that a sampling bias occurred other than the loss of zooplankton through the meshes of the #10 net. We hypothesize that, by incorrectly locating the flowmeter in the mouth of the plankton net, we underestimated the volume of water filtered by the easily-clogged #20-mesh net and therefore overestimated taxa abundances. We conclude that the #10-mesh net provided accurate estimates of microcrustacean zooplankton abundances except for nauplii. The #10-mesh net used in our study had a filtration area ratio of 3.06 and operated at a calculated average filtration efficiency of 98%. The #20-mesh net had a filtration area ratio of 1.86 and operated at calculated average filtration efficiencies ranging from 64.7% (41.7 m station) to 79.6% (6.3 m station). Calculations are presented which show how the filtration efficiencies of the nets used in our study could be improved by net redesign.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42868/1/10750_2004_Article_BF00032095.pd

Has Behavioral Science Tumbled Through the Biological Looking Glass? Will Brief, Evidence-Based Training Return It From the Rabbit Hole?

Time constraints and professional demands leave practicing professionals unlikely to enroll in extended training such as a semester-long graduate course. Thus, the three-hour continuing education format has become a standard for those in practice. One may ask what sorts of training strategies optimize that format. To explore that, a three hour training program for seventy-six practicing mental health professionals, most of whom self-identified as psychologists, was devised. It made use of primarily antecedent techniques that have been shown to bring about changed perceptions on a number of topics. Content focused on two areas of importance to behavior analysts, the culture’s increasing acceptance of the biological causation model of disorders such as attentiondeficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), unipolar depression, anxiety disorders, and schizophrenia, and the field’s increasing reliance on medications, often to the exclusion of behavioral methods. Pre-post assessment showed that participants had changed their thinking regarding the two content areas. The authors caution that participants’ changed opinions may serve as setting events to changes in practice, but those changes are verbal. One must not assume changes in practice techniques will automatically occur

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy