Rapid cooling and increased storminess triggered by freshwater in the North Atlantic

Recent winters have been unique due to the rapid and extreme cooling of the subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we present a novel view on its causes and consequences. Combining in‐situ observations with remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data, we show that increased freshening of the subpolar region gives rise to a faster surface cooling in fall and winter. Large freshwater events, in particular, result in pronounced cold anomalies with sharp temperature gradients that promote an enhanced storminess. The storms reinforce the cooling by driving stronger heat losses and modulating the surface flow. Consistent with this mechanism, past freshwater events have been followed by cold anomalies in winter of ~‐2°C and increases in the North Atlantic Oscillation index of up to~0.6 within 3 years. We expect that future freshwater discharges into the North Atlantic will amplify the cold anomaly and trigger an enhanced wintertime storminess with far‐reaching climatic implications

Gulf Stream variability in the context of quasi-decadal and multidecadal Atlantic climate variability

The Gulf Stream plays an important role in North Atlantic climate variability on a range of timescales. The North Atlantic is notable for large decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SST). Whether this variability is driven by atmospheric or oceanic influences is a disputed point. Long time series of atmospheric and ocean variables, in particular long time series of Gulf Stream position, reveal differing sources of SST variability on quasi‐decadal and multidecadal timescales. On quasi‐decadal timescales, an oscillatory signal identified in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) controls SST evolution directly via air‐sea heat fluxes. However, on multidecadal timescales, this relationship between the NAO and SST changes, while the relationship between the NAO and Gulf Stream position remains consistent in phase and resonant in amplitude. Recent changes in the Gulf Stream Extension show a weakening and broadening of the current, consistent with increased instability. We consider these changes in the context of a weakening Atlantic overturning circulation. Plain Language Summary The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of remarkable variability in surface temperatures on timescales of decades and longer. Much debate surrounds whether this variability is driven by the atmosphere or by ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream, moving heat around. In this study, we show that on timescales around 10 years, the atmosphere is the likely cause of Atlantic temperature variability but that this changes when multidecadal variability is considered. Changes ongoing in the Gulf Stream coincide with changes in the broader Atlantic—changes that imply a relatively cooler Atlantic in the coming decades

Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins

The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3Wm−2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies

Review and assessment of latent and sensible heat flux accuracy over the global oceans

For over a decade, several research groups have been developing air-sea heat flux information over the global ocean, including latent (LHF) and sensible (SHF) heat fluxes over the global ocean. This paper aims to provide new insight into the quality and error characteristics of turbulent heat flux estimates at various spatial and temporal scales (from daily upwards). The study is performed within the European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean Heat Flux (OHF) project. One of the main objectives of the OHF project is to meet the recommendations and requirements expressed by various international programs such as the World Research Climate Program (WCRP) and Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR), recognizing the need for better characterization of existing flux errors with respect to the input bulk variables (e.g. surface wind, air and sea surface temperatures, air and surface specific humidities), and to the atmospheric and oceanic conditions (e.g. wind conditions and sea state). The analysis is based on the use of daily averaged LHF and SHF and the asso- ciated bulk variables derived from major satellite-based and atmospheric reanalysis products. Inter-comparisons of heat flux products indicate that all of them exhibit similar space and time patterns. However, they also reveal significant differences in magnitude in some specific regions such as the western ocean boundaries during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, and the high southern latitudes. The differences tend to be closely related to large differences in surface wind speed and/or specific air humidity (for LHF) and to air and sea temperature differences (for SHF). Further quality investigations are performed through comprehensive comparisons with daily-averaged LHF and SHF estimated from moorings. The resulting statistics are used to assess the error of each OHF product. Consideration of error correlation between products and observations (e.g., by their assimilation) is also given. This reveals generally high noise variance in all products and a weak signal in common with in situ observations, with some products only slightly better than others. The OHF LHF and SHF products, and their associated error characteristics, are used to compute daily OHF multiproduct-ensemble (OHF/MPE) estimates of LHF and SHF over the ice-free global ocean on a 0.25° × 0.25° grid. The accuracy of this heat multiproduct, determined from comparisons with mooring data, is greater than for any individual product. It is used as a reference for the anomaly characterization of each individual OHF product

Signatures of the 1976-1977 Regime Shift in the North Pacific Revealed by Statistical Analysis

Regime shifts are abrupt changes in an ecosystem that may propagate through multiple trophic levels and have pronounced effects on the biotic and abiotic environment, potentially resulting in ecosystem reorganization. There are multiple mechanisms that could cause such abrupt events including natural and anthropogenic factors. In the North Pacific, a major shift in the physics of the system, including a sudden increase in sea surface temperature, was reported in 1977 with a prominent biological response in the lower trophic levels and subsequent effects on the fisheries and economy of the region. Here we investigate the statistics of physical processes that could have triggered and maintained the late 1970s shift. The hypothesis of an extreme sea level pressure event abruptly changing the oceanic conditions in winter 1976–1977, which was maintained by long‐term changes in air‐sea interaction processes, is tested. Using dynamical proxies, we show the occurrence of an extreme atmospheric event, specifically a persistent Aleutian Low during winter 1976–1977, which constitutes a substantial part of the triggering mechanism of the regime shift. Subsequent sudden changes in the net heat flux occurred in the western North Pacific, particularly in the Kuroshio Extension region, which contributed to the maintenance of the new regime

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change

Insights into decadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and ocean heat content variability from an eddy-permitting coupled climate model

An ocean mixed layer heat budget methodology is used to investigate the physical processes determining subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) variability on decadal-multidecadal timescales using the state-of-the-art climate model HadGEM3-GC2. New elements include development of an equation for evolution of anomalous SST for interannual and longer timescales in a form analogous to that for OHC, parameterization of the diffusive heat flux at the base of the mixed layer and analysis of a composite AMOC event. Contributions to OHC and SST variability from two sources are evaluated i) net ocean-atmosphere heat flux and ii) all other processes, including advection, diffusion and entrainment for SST. Anomalies in OHC tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescales with a clear relationship to the phase of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn lead OHC tendencies in both the eastern and western SPNA. OHC and SST variations in the SPNA on decadal timescales are dominated by AMOC variability because it controls variability of advection which is shown to be the dominant term in the OHC budget. Lags between OHC and SST is traced to differences between the advection term for OHC and the advection-entrainment term for SST. The new results have implications for interpretation of variations in Atlantic heat uptake in the CMIP6 climate model assessment

Drivers of Laptev Sea interannual variability in salinity and temperature

Eurasian rivers provide a quarter of total fresh water to the Arctic, maintaining a persistent fresh layer that covers the surface Arctic Ocean. This freshwater export controls Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and basin-wide sea ice concentration. The Lena River supplies the largest volume of runoff and plays a key role in this system, as runoff outflows into the Laptev Sea as a particularly shallow plume. Previous in situ and modelling studies suggest that local wind forcing is a driver of variability in Laptev sea surface salinity (SSS) but there is no consensus on the roles of Lena River discharge and sea ice cover in contributing to this variability or on the dominant driver of variability. Until recently, satellite SSS retrievals were insufficiently accurate for use in the Arctic. However, retreating sea ice cover and continuous progress in satellite product development have significantly improved SSS retrievals, giving satellite SSS data true potential in the Arctic. In this region, satellite-based SSS is found to agree well with in situ data (r&gt;0.8) and provides notable improvements compared to the reanalysis product used in this study (r&gt;0.7) in capturing patterns and variability observed in in situ data. This study demonstrates a novel method of identifying the dominant drivers of interannual variability in Laptev Sea dynamics within reanalysis products and testing if these relationships appear to hold in satellite-based SSS, sea surface temperature (SST) data, and in situ observations. The satellite SSS data firmly establish what is suggested by reanalysis products and what has previously been subject to debate due to the limited years and locations analysed with in situ data; the zonal wind is the dominant driver of offshore or onshore Lena River plume transport. The eastward wind confines the plume to the southern Laptev Sea and drives alongshore transport into the East Siberian Sea, and westward wind drives offshore plume transport into the northern Laptev Sea. This finding is affirmed by the strong agreement in SSS pattern under eastward and westward wind regimes in all reanalyses and satellite products used in this study, as well as with in situ data. The pattern of SST also varies with the zonal wind component and drives spatial variability in sea ice concentration.</p