Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models; Incorporating heterogeneity in arrival and departure

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes

Home-based exercise rehabilitation in addition to specialist heart failure nurse care: design, rationale and recruitment to the Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation study for patients with congestive heart failure (BRUM-CHF): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Exercise has been shown to be beneficial for selected patients with heart failure, but questions remain over its effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and uptake in a real world setting. This paper describes the design, rationale and recruitment for a randomised controlled trial that will explore the effectiveness and uptake of a predominantly home-based exercise rehabilitation programme, as well as its cost-effectiveness and patient acceptability. METHODS/DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial comparing specialist heart failure nurse care plus a nurse-led predominantly home-based exercise intervention against specialist heart failure nurse care alone in a multiethnic city population, served by two NHS Trusts and one primary care setting, in the United Kingdom. 169 English speaking patients with stable heart failure, defined as systolic impairment (ejection fraction ≤ 40%). with one or more hospital admissions with clinical heart failure or New York Heart Association (NYHA) II/III within previous 24-months were recruited. Main outcome measures at 1 year: Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire, incremental shuttle walk test, death or admission with heart failure or myocardial infarction, health care utilisation and costs. Interviews with purposive samples of patients to gain qualitative information about acceptability and adherence to exercise, views about their treatment, self-management of their heart failure and reasons why some patients declined to participate. The records of 1639 patients managed by specialist heart failure services were screened, of which 997 (61%) were ineligible, due to ejection fraction>40%, current NYHA IV, no admission or NYHA II or more within the previous 2 years, or serious co-morbidities preventing physical activity. 642 patients were contacted: 289 (45%) declined to participate, 183 (39%) had an exclusion criterion and 169 (26%) agreed to randomisation. DISCUSSION: Due to safety considerations for home-exercise less than half of patients treated by specialist heart failure services were eligible for the study. Many patients had co-morbidities preventing exercise and others had concerns about undertaking an exercise programme

Lithological influences on contemporary and long-term regolith weathering at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

Lithologic differences give rise to the differential weatherability of the Earth’s surface and globally variable silicate weathering fluxes, which provide an important negative feedback on climate over geologic timescales. To isolate the influence of lithology on weathering rates and mechanisms, we compare two nearby catchments in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory in Puerto Rico, which have similar climate history, relief and vegetation, but differ in bedrock lithology. Regolith and pore water samples with depth were collected from two ridgetops and at three sites along a slope transect in the volcaniclastic Bisley catchment and compared to existing data from the granitic Río Icacos catchment. The depth variations of solid-state and pore water chemistry and quantitative mineralogy were used to calculate mass transfer (tau) and weathering solute profiles, which in turn were used to determine weathering mechanisms and to estimate weathering rates. Regolith formed on both lithologies is highly leached of most labile elements, although Mg and K are less depleted in the granitic than in the volcaniclastic profiles, reflecting residual biotite in the granitic regolith not present in the volcaniclastics. Profiles of both lithologies that terminate at bedrock corestones are less weathered at depth, near the rock-regolith interfaces. Mg fluxes in the volcaniclastics derive primarily from dissolution of chlorite near the rock-regolith interface and from dissolution of illite and secondary phases in the upper regolith, whereas in the granitic profile, Mg and K fluxes derive from biotite dissolution. Long-term mineral dissolution rates and weathering fluxes were determined by integrating mass losses over the thickness of solid-state weathering fronts, and are therefore averages over the timescale of regolith development. Resulting long-term dissolution rates for minerals in the volcaniclastic regolith include chlorite: 8.9 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹, illite: 2.1 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹ and kaolinite: 4.0 × 10‾¹⁴ mol m‾² s‾¹. Long-term weathering fluxes are several orders of magnitude lower in the granitic regolith than in the volcaniclastic, despite higher abundances of several elements in the granitic regolith. Contemporary weathering fluxes were determined from net (rain-corrected) solute profiles and thus represent rates over the residence time of water in the regolith. Contemporary weathering fluxes within the granitic regolith are similar to the long-term fluxes. In contrast, the long-term fluxes are faster than the contemporary fluxes in the volcaniclastic regolith. Contemporary fluxes in the granitic regolith are generally also slightly faster than in the volcaniclastic. The differences in weathering fluxes over space and time between these two watersheds indicate significant lithologic control of chemical weathering mechanisms and rates

A realist review of one-to-one breastfeeding peer support experiments conducted in developed country settings

The World Health Organisation guidance recommends breastfeeding peer support (BFPS) as part of a strategy to improve breastfeeding rates. In the UK, BFPS is supported by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance and a variety of models are in use. The experimental evidence for BFPS in developed countries is mixed and traditional methods of systematic review are ill-equipped to explore heterogeneity, complexity, and context influences on effectiveness. This review aimed to enhance learning from the experimental evidence base for one-to-one BFPS intervention. Principles of realist review were applied to intervention case studies associated with published experimental studies. The review aimed (a) to explore heterogeneity in theoretical underpinnings and intervention design for one-to-one BFPS intervention; (b) inform design decisions by identifying transferable lessons developed from cross-case comparison of context-mechanism-outcome relationships; and (c) inform evaluation design by identifying context-mechanism-outcome relationships associated with experimental conditions. Findings highlighted poor attention to intervention theory and considerable heterogeneity in BFPS intervention design. Transferable mid-range theories to inform design emerged, which could be grouped into seven categories: (a) congruence with local infant feeding norms, (b) integration with the existing system of health care, (c) overcoming practical and emotional barriers to access, (d) ensuring friendly, competent, and proactive peers, (e) facilitating authentic peer–mother interactions, (f) motivating peers to ensure positive within-intervention amplification, and (g) ensuring positive legacy and maintenance of gains. There is a need to integrate realist principles into evaluation design to improve our understanding of what forms of BFPS work, for whom and under what circumstances

What do you mean, ‘megafire’?

BACKGROUND : ‘Megafire’ is an emerging concept commonly used to describe fires that are extreme in terms of size, behaviour, and/or impacts, but the term’s meaning remains ambiguous. APPROACH : We sought to resolve ambiguity surrounding the meaning of ‘megafire’ by conducting a structured review of the use and definition of the term in several languages in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. We collated definitions and descriptions of megafire and identified criteria frequently invoked to define megafire. We recorded the size and location of megafires and mapped them to reveal global variation in the size of fires described as megafires. RESULTS : We identified 109 studies that define the term ‘megafire’ or identify a megafire, with the term first appearing in the peer-reviewed literature in 2005. Seventy-one (~65%) of these studies attempted to describe or define the term. There was considerable variability in the criteria used to define megafire, although definitions of megafire based on fire size were most common. Megafire size thresholds varied geographically from > 100–100,000 ha, with fires > 10,000 ha the most common size threshold (41%, 18/44 studies). Definitions of megafire were most common from studies led by authors from North America (52%, 37/71). We recorded 137 instances from 84 studies where fires were reported as megafires, the vast majority (94%, 129/137) of which exceed 10,000 ha in size. Megafires occurred in a range of biomes, but were most frequently described in forested biomes (112/137, 82%), and usually described single ignition fires (59% 81/137). CONCLUSION : As Earth’s climate and ecosystems change, it is important that scientists can communicate trends in the occurrence of larger and more extreme fires with clarity. To overcome ambiguity, we suggest a definition of megafire as fires > 10,000 ha arising from single or multiple related ignition events. We introduce two additional terms – gigafire (> 100,000 ha) and terafire (> 1,000,000 ha) – for fires of an even larger scale than megafires.DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: A list of the references from which the data were extracted can be found in the Appendix A: Data sources. The data used in this study are openly available at zenodo.org: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6252145.Threatened Species Recovery Hub; NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub; Australian Wildlife Society; World Wildlife Fund.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gebZoology and Entomolog