Decade of Reform: Ecuador's Macroeconomic Policies, Institutional Changes, and Results

This paper looks at some of the institutional, policy, and regulatory changes enacted by the government of Ecuador, as well as overall economic and social indicators, over the decade since the Correa government took office

Life After Debt in Puerto Rico: How Many More Lost Decades?

As Puerto Rico enters the legal debt restructuring process, this paper examines the future prospects for an economy that has had no growth over the last ten years — a lost decade. The facts indicate that the fiscal plan approved by Puerto Rico's Financial Oversight Board will not lead to an economic recovery in the foreseeable future and that another lost decade, or worse, is a much more likely outcome. Nor will the proposed restructuring satisfy creditors, who may then further impede economic recovery by taking legal action in an attempt to collect the full value of the bonds they hold. The paper also notes the recent historical and structural causes of the economy's decline, which led to the debt crisis; and that these, too, will need to be addressed if Puerto Rico is ever to have a sustainable recovery

More Trouble Ahead: Puerto Rico's Impending Medicaid Crisis

Already in the midst of a fiscal crisis, Puerto Rico faces a long road to recovery from Hurricane Maria, a devastating storm it was ill-equipped to handle. The urgent efforts to address both the humanitarian needs and damage caused by the storm must also extend to solving the island's imminent Medicaid crisis, a preexisting condition that plagued Puerto Rico before the hurricane and that has been exacerbated by it.This paper examines the inadequate federal support received by Puerto Rico for its Medicaid program, and shows that ? barring immediate action from the US Congress ? the territory will not have sufficient funds to continue operating in 2018. While the cost of living is higher in Puerto Rico than the US average, health care services are the only item that is significantly less costly on the island.  Using 2016 Medicaid costs and looking at known migration patterns, we calculate what the federal government and states are likely to pay for providing Medicaid for Puerto Ricans moving to US states from 2018 to 2027 using two different migration scenarios. Under the more pessimistic scenario - a higher out-migration rate - more likely in the wake of Hurricane Maria, the cost for providing Medicaid to new Puerto Rican migrants stateside is $19.4 billion for the federal government and$12.3 billion among states, as compared to a total of $7.8 billion in Puerto Rico

The Pact for Mexico after Five Years: How Has It Fared?

The Pact for Mexico pledged to institute policies that would usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for Mexico, through the implementation of a series of structural reforms. The timeline for implementation of the proposed reforms extended to the second semester of 2018.This paper examines whether there has been progress toward the Pact's goals since it was signed; and whether any measures taken since then — including current economic policies — are likely to help Mexico break out of its long economic slump and forge a different path toward economic and social progress.Five years into the Pact for Mexico, it is clear from the available data that the Pact's promises to launch a new era of economic and social progress have not begun to materialize. The authors conclude that the country's persistent sluggish growth, poverty, and inequality are rooted in a set of important economic policy choices that have been made consistently for a long time

Opacity in compact extragalactic radio sources and its effect on astrophysical and astrometric studies

The apparent position of the "core" in a parsec-scale radio jet (a compact, bright emitting region at the narrow end of the jet) depends on the observing frequency, owing to synchrotron self-absorption and external absorption. While providing a tool probing physical conditions in the vicinity of the core, this dependency poses problems for astrometric studies using compact radio sources. We investigated the frequency-dependent shift in the positions of the cores (core shift) observed with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) in parsec-scale jets. We discuss related physics, as well as its effect on radio astrometry and the connection between radio and optical positions of astrometric reference objects. We searched for the core shift in a sample of 277 radio sources imaged at 2.3 GHz (13 cm) and 8.6 GHz (4 cm) frequency bands using VLBI observations made in 2002 and 2003. The core shift was measured by referencing the core position to optically thin jet features whose positions are not expected to change with frequency. We present here results for 29 selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) with bright distinct VLBI jet features that can be used in differential measurements and that allow robust measurements of the shift to be made. In these AGN, the magnitude of the measured core shift between 2.3 and 8.6 GHz reaches 1.4 mas, with a median value for the sample of 0.44 mas. Nuclear flares result in temporal variability of the shift. An average shift between the radio (4 cm) and optical (6000 Angstrom) bands is estimated to be approximately 0.1 mas, and it should be taken into account in order to provide the required accuracy of the radio-optical reference frame connection. This can be accomplished with multi-frequency VLBI measurements... (abridged)Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics; minor corrections to the manuscript are mad

The continuous rise of bulges out of galactic disks

(abridged) This study revolves around dmB, a new distance- and extinction-independent measure of the contribution by stellar populations older than 9 Gyr to the mean r-band surface brightness of the bulge component in 135 late-type galaxies (LTGs) from the CALIFA survey, spanning a range of 2.6 dex and 3 dex in total and bulge stellar mass (M*T~10^(8.9-11.5) M_solar and M*B~10^(8.3-11.3) M_solar, respectively). The main insight from this study is that LTG bulges form a continuous sequence of increasing dmB with increasing M*T, M*B, stellar mass surface density S* and mass-weighted age and metallicity: high-dmB bulges are the oldest, densest and most massive ones, and vice versa. Furthermore, we find that the bulge-to-disk age and metallicity contrast, as well as the bulge-to-disk mass ratio increase with M*T, raising from, respectively, ~0 Gyr, 0 dex and 0.25 to ~3 Gyr, ~0.3 dex and 0.67 across the mass range covered by our sample. Whereas gas excitation in lower-mass bulges is invariably dominated by star formation (SF), LINER- and Seyfert-specific emission-line ratios were exclusively documented in high-mass, high-S* bulges. The continuity both in the properties of LTG bulges themselves and in their age and metallicity contrast to their parent disks suggests that these components evolve alongside in a concurrent process that leads to a continuum of physical and evolutionary characteristics. Our results are consistent with a picture where bulge growth in LTGs is driven by a superposition of quick-early and slow-secular processes, the relative importance of which increases with M*T. These processes, which presumably combine in situ SF in the bulge and inward migration of material from the disk, are expected to lead to a non-homologous radial growth of S* and a trend for an increasing Sersic index with increasing galaxy mass.Comment: 24 pages, accepted for publication in A&

On the cardinal system in Italian Sign Language (LIS)

This paper offers a comprehensive discussion of the cardinal system of Italian Sign Language (LIS). At the lexical level, we present the different formational strategies used to generate cardinal numerals and we provide evidence that in the younger generations of signers, the sign ONE has lost the function of indefinite determiner and is now used as cardinal only. At the syntactic level, we show that the attested variation in order between the cardinal and the noun is in part due to definiteness and contrastive focus. We account for this variation within the cartographic approach to syntax. Finally, we offer a principled explanation for the reason why cardinals inside Measure Phrases are not subject to word order variation, but always precede the measure noun

GRADE guidelines 17:Assessing the risk of bias associated with missing participant outcome data in a body of evidence

Objective: To provide GRADE guidance for assessing risk of bias across an entire body of evidence consequent on missing data for systematic reviews of both binary and continuous outcomes. Study Design and Setting: Systematic survey of published methodological research, iterative discussions, testing in systematic reviews, and feedback from the GRADE Working Group. Results: Approaches begin with a primary meta-analysis using a complete case analysis followed by sensitivity meta-analyses imputing, in each study, data for those with missing data, and then pooling across studies. For binary outcomes, we suggest use of "plausible worst case" in which review authors assume that those with missing data in treatment arms have proportionally higher event rates than those followed successfully. For continuous outcomes, imputed mean values come from other studies within the systematic review and the standard deviation (SD) from the median SDs of the control arms of all studies. Conclusions: If the results of the primary meta-analysis are robust to the most extreme assumptions viewed as plausible, one does not rate down certainty in the evidence for risk of bias due to missing participant outcome data. If the results prove not robust to plausible assumptions, one would rate down certainty in the evidence for risk of bias.</p