51 research outputs found

    Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact - an investigation using mathematical models

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    There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings

    Elimination or resurgence : modelling lymphatic filariasis after reaching the 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold

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    The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4–6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success

    Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

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    Background In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies. Methods We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities. Results The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y. Conclusions In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained

    Outpatient Parenteral Antibiotic Treatment vs Hospitalization for Infective Endocarditis: Validation of the OPAT-GAMES Criteria

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    Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

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    Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p &lt; 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics

    Abstracts from the Food Allergy and Anaphylaxis Meeting 2016

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    Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

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    Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

    Cuestionario para evaluar en médicos conductas, conocimientos y actitudes sobre la higiene de manos Questionnaire to assess behavior, knowledge and attitudes on hand hygiene among physicians

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    Objetivo: La necesidad de generar instrumentos válidos y fiables para medir aspectos relacionados con la higiene de manos es importante para conocer la situación actual y el impacto de las acciones formativas en los profesionales. El objetivo principal del trabajo es validar un cuestionario sobre higiene de manos en médicos y analizar sus propiedades de la medida. Método: Estudio instrumental en el cual se elaboró un cuestionario que se aplicó entre enero de 2010 y marzo de 2011 en el Hospital Clínico San Cecilio (Granada). Éste constó finalmente de 44 ítems que evalúan la conducta del profesional médico antes y después del contacto con el paciente, los conocimientos declarativos y las actitudes sobre la higiene de manos. Se aplicó a 113 profesionales. Resultados: Tras realizar los análisis factoriales se obtuvieron datos que avalan la unidimensionalidad de la herramienta, con un valor de convergencia general que explica el 39,289% de la varianza total y un valor alfa de Cronbach para elementos tipificados de 0,784. Hay diferencias significativas entre la conducta de higiene de manos antes y después del contacto con el paciente (t=-8,991; p Objective: Valid and reliable instruments to measure aspects of hand hygiene are needed to determine the current situation and impact of training among health professionals. The main objective of this study was to describe the development of a questionnaire on hand hygiene among health professionals and to analyze the properties of this instrument. Method: A questionnaire was designed and implemented between January 2010 and March 2011 at the Hospital Clínico San Cecilio (Granada, Spain). The final questionnaire consisted of 44 items that assessed provider behavior before and after contact with the patient, declarative knowledge, and attitudes to hand hygiene. The questionnaire was administered to 113 health professionals. Results: A factor analysis was performed. Data were obtained that supported the unidimensionality of the instrument with a general convergence value that explained 39.289% of the total variance and a Cronbach's alpha of 0.784 for the established elements. Significant differences were found in hand hygiene behavior before and after contact with the patient (t=-8,991, p <0.001). Declarative knowledge and attitudes significantly predicted behavior. Conclusions: The questionnaire shows high internal consistency, reliability, and validity and is thus a valid tool to assess behavior, knowledge and attitudes related to hand hygiene in health professionals. This instrument also detects deficiencies in basic knowledge
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