Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study

Satellite-based (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar [SAR]) water level observations (WLOs) of the floodplain can be sequentially assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. This has the potential to keep the forecast on track, so providing an Earth Observation (EO) based flood forecast system. However, the operational applicability of such a system for floods developed over river networks requires further testing. One of the promising techniques for assimilation in this field is the family of ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filters. These filters use a limited-size ensemble representation of the forecast error covariance matrix. This representation tends to develop spurious correlations as the forecast-assimilation cycle proceeds, which is a further complication for dealing with floods in either urban areas or river junctions in rural environments. Here we evaluate the assimilation of WLOs obtained from a sequence of real SAR overpasses (the X-band COSMO-Skymed constellation) in a case study. We show that a direct application of a global Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) suffers from filter divergence caused by spurious correlations. However, a spatially-based filter localization provides a substantial moderation in the development of the forecast error covariance matrix, directly improving the forecast and also making it possible to further benefit from a simultaneous online inflow error estimation and correction. Additionally, we propose and evaluate a novel along-network metric for filter localization, which is physically-meaningful for the flood over a network problem. Using this metric, we further evaluate the simultaneous estimation of channel friction and spatially-variable channel bathymetry, for which the filter seems able to converge simultaneously to sensible values. Results also indicate that friction is a second order effect in flood inundation models applied to gradually varied flow in large rivers. The study is not conclusive regarding whether in an operational situation the simultaneous estimation of friction and bathymetry helps the current forecast. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of stand-alone EO-based operational flood forecasting

Safeguarding the nation’s digital memory : towards a Bayesian model of digital preservation risk

Preservation of digital material is a challenge for which many archives feel underprepared and ill equipped. The National Archives (UK) has been working in collaboration with statisticians from the University of Warwick and partners from across the UK archives sector to develop a decision-support system which quantifies the risks involved in digital preservation. Through interdisciplinary collaboration, this partnership has developed an interactive tool for managing risks to digital material, based on a Bayesian statistical network. The tool provides archivists with a different way of thinking about digital preservation, supported by an evidence base they can use to advocate for action. The project illustrates the potential benefit of a collaborative approach, combining insight from different disciplines

The SPEDE Spectrometer: Combined In-Beam γ-ray and Conversion Electron Spectroscopy with Radioactive Ion Beams

The SPEDE conversion electron spectrometer will be combined with the Miniball germanium detector array for combined in-beam electron and γ-ray spectroscopy with radioactive ion beams. SPEDE will be primarily employed in Coulomb excitation experiments at HIE-ISOLDE, CERN.status: publishe

The SPEDE spectrometer: combined in-beam γ\gamma-ray and conversion electron spectroscopy with radioactive ion beams

The SPEDE conversion electron spectrometer will be combined with the Miniball germanium detector array for combined in-beam electron and $\gamma$-ray spectroscopy with radioactive ion beams. SPEDE will be primarily employed in Coulomb excitation experiments at HIE-ISOLDE, CERN

The BepiColombo Mercury Imaging X-Ray Spectrometer: Science Goals, Instrument Performance and Operations

The Mercury Imaging X-ray Spectrometer is a highly novel instrument that is designed to map Mercury's elemental composition from orbit at two angular resolutions. By observing the fluorescence X-rays generated when solar-coronal X-rays and charged particles interact with the surface regolith, MIXS will be able to measure the atomic composition of the upper similar to 10-20 mu m of Mercury's surface on the day-side. Through precipitating particles on the night-side, MIXS will also determine the dynamic interaction of the planet's surface with the surrounding space environment. MIXS is composed of two complementary elements: MIXS-C is a collimated instrument which will achieve global coverage at a similar spatial resolution to that achieved (in the northern hemisphere only - i.e. similar to 50 - 100 km) by MESSENGER; MIXS-T is the first ever X-ray telescope to be sent to another planet and will, during periods of high solar activity (or intense precipitation of charged particles), reveal the X-ray flux from Mercury at better than 10 km resolution. The design, performance, scientific goals and operations plans of the instrument are discussed, including the initial results from commissioning in space.Peer reviewe

Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns

A large part of the uncertainty in climate projections comes from uncertain aerosol properties and aerosol-cloud interactions as well as the difficulty in remotely sensing them. The southeastern Atlantic functions as a natural laboratory to study biomass-burning smoke and to constrain this uncertainty. We address these gaps by comparing the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) to the multi-campaign observations ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS), CLARIFY (CLoud-Aerosol-Radiation Interaction and Forcing), and LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017 to evaluate a large range of the model's aerosol chemical properties, size distributions, processes, and transport, as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. Overall, while WRF-CAM5 is able to represent smoke properties and transport, some key discrepancies highlight the need for further analysis. Observations of smoke composition show an overall decrease in aerosol mean diameter as smoke ages over 4-12 d, while the model lacks this trend. A decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon (BC), OA:BC, and the OA mass to carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio, OA:CO, suggests that the model is missing processes that selectively remove OA from the particle phase, such as photolysis and heterogeneous aerosol chemistry. A large (factor of ∼2.5) enhancement in sulfate from the free troposphere (FT) to the boundary layer (BL) in observations is not present in the model, pointing to the importance of properly representing secondary sulfate aerosol formation from marine dimethyl sulfide and gaseous SO2 smoke emissions. The model shows a persistent overprediction of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL), especially for clean conditions, which multiple pieces of evidence link to weaker aerosol removal in the modeled MBL than reality. This evidence includes several model features, such as not representing observed shifts towards smaller aerosol diameters, inaccurate concentration ratios of carbon monoxide and black carbon, underprediction of heavy rain events, and little evidence of persistent biases in modeled entrainment. The average below-cloud aerosol activation fraction (NCLD/NAER) remains relatively constant in WRF-CAM5 between field campaigns (∼0.65), while it decreases substantially in observations from ORACLES (∼0.78) to CLARIFY (∼0.5), which could be due to the model misrepresentation of clean aerosol conditions. WRF-CAM5 also overshoots an observed upper limit on liquid cloud droplet concentration around NCLDCombining double low line 400-500 cm-3 and overpredicts the spread in NCLD. This could be related to the model often drastically overestimating the strength of boundary layer vertical turbulence by up to a factor of 10. We expect these results to motivate similar evaluations of other modeling systems and promote model development to reduce critical uncertainties in climate simulations. Copyright

A Major Upgrade of the H.E.S.S. Cherenkov Cameras

The High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is an array of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) located in Namibia. It was built to detect Very High Energy (VHE, >100 GeV) cosmic gamma rays, and consists of four 12 m diameter Cherenkov telescopes (CT1-4), built in 2003, and a larger 28 m telescope (CT5), built in 2012. The larger mirror surface of CT5 permits to lower the energy threshold of the array down to 30 GeV. The cameras of CT1-4 are currently undergoing an extensive upgrade, with the goals of reducing their failure rate, reducing their readout dead time and improving the overall performance of the array. The entire camera electronics has been renewed from ground-up, as well as the power, ventilation and pneumatics systems, and the control and data acquisition software. Technical solutions forseen for the next-generation Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) observatory have been introduced, most notably the readout is based on the NECTAr analog memory chip. The camera control subsystems and the control software framework also pursue an innovative design, increasing the camera performance, robustness and flexibility. The CT1 camera has been upgraded in July 2015 and is currently taking data; CT2-4 will upgraded in Fall 2016. Together they will assure continuous operation of H.E.S.S at its full sensitivity until and possibly beyond the advent of CTA. This contribution describes the design, the testing and the in-lab and on-site performance of all components of the newly upgraded H.E.S.S. camera

The upgrade of the H.E.S.S. cameras

International audienceThe High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is an array of five imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACT) located in Namibia. In order to assure the continuous operation of H.E.S.S. at its full sensitivity until and possibly beyond the advent of CTA, the older cameras, installed in 2003, are currently undergoing an extensive upgrade. Its goals are reducing the system failure rate, reducing the dead time and improving the overall performance of the array. All camera components have been upgraded, except the mechanical structure and the photo-multiplier tubes (PMTs). Novel technical solutions have been introduced: the upgraded readout electronics is based on the NECTAr analog memory chip; the control of the hardware is carried out by an FPGA coupled to an embedded ARM computer; the control software was re-written from scratch and it is based on modern C++ open source libraries. These hardware and software solutions offer very good performance, robustness and flexibility. The first camera was fielded in July 2015 and has been successfully commissioned; the rest is scheduled to be upgraded in September 2016. The present contribution describes the design, the testing and the performance of the new H.E.S.S. camera and its components