An Analysis of Profit Cycles In the Airline Industry

The objective of this paper is to understand the financial dynamics of the airline industry by identifying profit cycle periods of the industry and their driving factors. Assuming that the industry profit cycles could be modeled as an undamped second-order system, the fundamental cycle period was identified to be 11.3 years for the U.S. airlines and 10.5 years for the world airlines. Analyses of industry profits reveal that such cycle period is endogenous, neither deregulation nor September 11 have significantly changed it. Parametric models were developed under the hypothesis that phase lag in the system caused profit oscillations; and two hypotheses, lag in capacity response and lag in cost adjustment were studied. A parametric model was developed by hypothesizing the delay in capacity response caused profit oscillations. For this model, the system stability depends on the delay between aircraft orders and deliveries and the aggressiveness in airplane ordering. Assuming industry profits correlated to capacity shortfall, the delay and gain were calculated and the results were consistent with the observed delay between world aircraft deliveries and net profits. Since the gain in the model has lumped impacts of exogenous factors, exaggerated capacity response was observed in simulation. This indicates capacity shortfall alone cannot fully explain the industry dynamics. The model also indicates reduced delay may help to mitigate system oscillations. Similarly, a parametric model was developed by hypothesizing the delay in cost adjustment caused profit oscillations, and simulation results were consistent with industry profits. A coupled model was developed to study the joint effects of capacity and cost. Simulations indicated that the coupled model explained industry dynamics better than the individual capacity or cost models, indicating that the system behavior is driven by the joint effects of capacity response and cost adjustment. A more sophisticated model including load factor and short-term capacity effects is proposed for future work in an effort to better understand the industry dynamics. This document is based on the thesis of Helen Hong Jiang submitted to the Departmen

Role of the domain encompassing Arg304–Ile328 in rat P2X2 receptor conformation revealed by alterations in complex glycosylation at Asn298

The final 25 amino acids of the ectodomain of the P2X receptors, immediately prior to the second TM (transmembrane domain) (pre-TM2: Arg304–Ile328 in rat P2X2), are highly conserved. Whole-cell patch clamp recordings showed that single cysteine substitutions in the N-terminal half of pre-TM2 (Arg304–Ile314) led to loss of function at Arg304, Leu306, Lys308 and Ile312. Cysteine substitutions within this region also resulted in a significant reduction in the apparent molecular mass of receptors, due to loss of complex glycosylation at the nearby acceptor site Asn298, which was not seen for the C-terminal portion of pre-TM2 (Asp315–Ile328). The reduction in complex glycosylation was not due to reduced cell-surface presentation, demonstrating that glycosylation at Asn298 was acting as a sensor of subtle changes in receptor conformation within the pre-TM2 region. When this N-glycan site was repositioned closer to the plasma membrane by mutagenesis (N298S together with G299N, T300N, T301N or T303N), glycosylation was restored at G299N and T300N, but was impaired for T301N and completely absent for T303N. These results suggest that the region in the vicinity of Asp315 is at the plasma membrane interface and that the N-terminal portion of pre-TM2 (Arg304–Ile314) is important for the correct conformation of the receptor at the extracellular face of the membrane

Kank Is an EB1 Interacting Protein that Localises to Muscle-Tendon Attachment Sites in Drosophila

Little is known about how microtubules are regulated in different cell types during development. EB1 plays a central role in the regulation of microtubule plus ends. It directly binds to microtubule plus ends and recruits proteins which regulate microtubule dynamics and behaviour. We report the identification of Kank, the sole Drosophila orthologue of human Kank proteins, as an EB1 interactor that predominantly localises to embryonic attachment sites between muscle and tendon cells. Human Kank1 was identified as a tumour suppressor and has documented roles in actin regulation and cell polarity in cultured mammalian cells. We found that Drosophila Kank binds EB1 directly and this interaction is essential for Kank localisation to microtubule plus ends in cultured cells. Kank protein is expressed throughout fly development and increases during embryogenesis. In late embryos, it accumulates to sites of attachment between muscle and epidermal cells. A kank deletion mutant was generated. We found that the mutant is viable and fertile without noticeable defects. Further analysis showed that Kank is dispensable for muscle function in larvae. This is in sharp contrast to C. elegans in which the Kank orthologue VAB-19 is required for development by stabilising attachment structures between muscle and epidermal cells

Age-related increase of kynurenine enhances miR29b-1-5p to decrease both CXCL12 signaling and the epigenetic enzyme Hdac3 in bone marrow stromal cells

Mechanisms leading to age-related reductions in bone formation and subsequent osteoporosis are still incompletely understood. We recently demonstrated that kynurenine (KYN), a tryptophan metabolite, accumulates in serum of aged mice and induces bone loss. Here, we report on novel mechanisms underlying KYN's detrimental effect on bone aging. We show that KYN is increased with aging in murine bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). KYN reduces bone formation via modulating levels of CXCL12 and its receptors as well as histone deacetylase 3 (Hdac3). BMSCs responded to KYN by significantly decreasing mRNA expression levels of CXCL12 and its cognate receptors, CXCR4 and ACKR3, as well as downregulating osteogenic gene RUNX2 expression, resulting in a significant inhibition in BMSCs osteogenic differentiation. KYN's effects on these targets occur by increasing regulatory miRNAs that target osteogenesis, specifically miR29b-1-5p. Thus, KYN significantly upregulated the anti-osteogenic miRNA miR29b-1-5p in BMSCs, mimicking the up-regulation of miR-29b-1-5p in human and murine BMSCs with age. Direct inhibition of miR29b-1-5p by antagomirs rescued CXCL12 protein levels downregulated by KYN, while a miR29b-1-5p mimic further decreased CXCL12 levels. KYN also significantly downregulated mRNA levels of Hdac3, a target of miR-29b-1-5p, as well as its cofactor NCoR1. KYN is a ligand for the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). We hypothesized that AhR mediates KYN's effects in BMSCs. Indeed, AhR inhibitors (CH-223191 and 3',4'-dimethoxyflavone [DMF]) partially rescued secreted CXCL12 protein levels in BMSCs treated with KYN. Importantly, we found that treatment with CXCL12, or transfection with an miR29b-1-5p antagomir, downregulated the AhR mRNA level, while transfection with miR29b-1-5p mimic significantly upregulated its level. Further, CXCL12 treatment downregulated IDO, an enzyme responsible for generating KYN. Our findings reveal novel molecular pathways involved in KYN's age-associated effects in the bone microenvironment that may be useful translational targets for treating osteoporosis

Lack of PTEN sequesters CHK1 and initiates genetic instability

Pten−/− cells display a partially defective checkpoint in response to ionizing radiation (IR). The checkpoint defect was traced to the ability of AKT to phosphorylate CHK1 at serine 280, since a nonphosphorylated mutant of CHK1 (S280A) complemented the checkpoint defect and restored CDC25A degradation. CHK1 phosphorylation at serine 280 led to cova- lent binding of 1 to 2 molecules of ubiquitin and cytoplasmic CHK1 localization. Primary breast carcinomas lacking PTEN expression and having elevated AKT phosphorylation had increased cytoplasmic CHK1 and displayed aneuploidy (p < 0.005). We conclude that loss of PTEN and subsequent activation of AKT impair CHK1 through phosphorylation, ubiquitination, and reduced nuclear localization to promote genomic instability in tumor cells

Replication of Lung Cancer Susceptibility Loci at Chromosomes 15q25, 5p15, and 6p21: A Pooled Analysis From the International Lung Cancer Consortium

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified three chromosomal regions at 15q25, 5p15, and 6p21 as being associated with the risk of lung cancer. To confirm these associations in independent studies and investigate heterogeneity of these associations within specific subgroups, we conducted a coordinated genotyping study within the International Lung Cancer Consortium based on independent studies that were not included in previous genome-wide association studies. Methods Genotype data for single-nucleotide polymorphisms at chromosomes 15q25 (rs16969968, rs8034191), 5p15 (rs2736100, rs402710), and 6p21 (rs2256543, rs4324798) from 21 case-control studies for 11 645 lung cancer case patients and 14 954 control subjects, of whom 85% were white and 15% were Asian, were pooled. Associations between the variants and the risk of lung cancer were estimated by logistic regression models. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Associations between 15q25 and the risk of lung cancer were replicated in white ever-smokers (rs16969968: odds ratio [OR] = 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.21 to 1.32, Ptrend = 2 × 10−26), and this association was stronger for those diagnosed at younger ages. There was no association in never-smokers or in Asians between either of the 15q25 variants and the risk of lung cancer. For the chromosome 5p15 region, we confirmed statistically significant associations in whites for both rs2736100 (OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.20, Ptrend = 1 × 10−10) and rs402710 (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.19, Ptrend = 5 × 10−8) and identified similar associations in Asians (rs2736100: OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.35, Ptrend = 2 × 10−5; rs402710: OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.27, Ptrend = .007). The associations between the 5p15 variants and lung cancer differed by histology; odds ratios for rs2736100 were highest in adenocarcinoma and for rs402710 were highest in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinomas. This pattern was observed in both ethnic groups. Neither of the two variants on chromosome 6p21 was associated with the risk of lung cancer. Conclusions In this international genetic association study of lung cancer, previous associations found in white populations were replicated and new associations were identified in Asian populations. Future genetic studies of lung cancer should include detailed stratification by histolog

Smoking and Genetic Risk Variation Across Populations of E uropean, A sian, and A frican A merican Ancestry—A Meta‐Analysis of Chromosome 15q25

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91126/1/gepi21627.pd

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals &lt;1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks