LATE-HOLOCENE LAKE DIATOM-INFERRED PALAEOCLIMATE FROM CENTRAL TURKEY

Merged with duplicate record 10026.1/1308 on 27.03.2017 by CS (TIS)In the semi-arid environment of the Eastern Mediterranean, water can be a limiting resource and its availability is influenced by different climate factors. Knowledge of late Holocene water balance is limited for this region. Lake systems and organisms respond to environmental variability and can be used as a proxy for palaeoclimate. The aims of this research project were to reconstruct late Holocene palaeoclimate using diatom frustules preserved within crater lake sediments in central Turkey. Two lakes (Nar Golu and Kratergòl), located in the same climate region, were selected for this purpose. Modem lake samples and sediment cores collected between 1999-2006 were subsampled at high resolution for diatom analysis. Nar Golu provided an uninterrupted annually-laminated late Holocene sequence covering the last 1720 years. The varied lake sedimentation rate of Kratergòl was evident in sediment core coarse sandy sections and the sequence was thought to represent the mid-late 20th century. A diatom-salinity transfer function was employed using existing training sets from the European Diatom Database to infer past water balance. The reconstruction was calibrated with instrumental meteorological data. Reconstructed salinity was limited by poor analogue matching between the palaeo-diatom assemblage and the modem training set. This was partly associated with the presence of a previously undescribed diatom genus (newly named Clipeoparvus anatolìcus), which was highly abundant in the Nar modern environment and sediment record. Additional methods to extract palaeoenvironmental information from the diatom record were explored. This included calibrating diatom DCA axes with instrumental temperature in order to reconstruct palaeo-temperature, identifying mono-specific diatom bloom events in situ on core thin section shdes, calculating diatom biovolume, concentration, diversity and grouping species according to their habitat preferences. Comparison of the Nar and Kratergòl records highlighted the advantages of annually laminated lake sediments for palaeoenvironmental research and the limitations of sediment sequences from lakes with a varied sedimentation rate and poor chronological control. The primary meteorological control on the Nar diatom population was identified as summer temperature, via the link with lake water salinity. The Nar diatom sequence was compared with an oxygen isotope (palaeo-evaporation) and pollen record (human land use) from the same sediment cores and palaeoclimate reconstructions from other sites and regions. Nar diatoms and oxygen isotopes revealed that Cappadocia experienced high aridity prior to AD 540 and mono-specific diatom bloom events have become increasingly common during the most recent ~400 years. A diatom assemblage shift at AD 2001 also indicated a recent change in the system. Human land use evident in the pollen sequence may have influenced the diatom relationship with climatic variability in the later part of the record. The Kratergòl diatom record indicated environmental variability throughout the mid-late 20th century; however, interpretations were limited due to chronological discrepancies. The annually laminated Nar diatom record has provided a detailed account of palaeoenvironmental variability in central Anatolia throughout the late Holocene and contributes towards our understanding of Eastern Mediterranean palaeoclimate

The spatiotemporal spread of human migrations during the European Holocene

The European continent was subject to two major migrations of peoples during the Holocene: the northwestward movement of Anatolian farmer populations during the Neolithic and the westward movement of Yamnaya steppe peoples during the Bronze Age. These movements changed the genetic composition of the continent’s inhabitants. The Holocene was also characterized by major changes in vegetation composition, which altered the environment occupied by the original hunter-gatherer populations. We aim to test to what extent vegetation change through time is associated with changes in population composition as a consequence of these migrations, or with changes in climate. Using ancient DNA in combination with geostatistical techniques, we produce detailed maps of ancient population movements, which allow us to visualize how these migrations unfolded through time and space. We find that the spread of Neolithic farmer ancestry had a two-pronged wavefront, in agreement with similar findings on the cultural spread of farming from radiocarbon-dated archaeological sites. This movement, however, did not have a strong association with changes in the vegetational landscape. In contrast, the Yamnaya migration speed was at least twice as fast, and coincided with a reduction in the amount of broad-leaf forest and an increase in the amount of pasture and natural grasslands in the continent. We demonstrate the utility of integrating ancient genomes with archaeometric datasets in a spatiotemporal statistical framework, which we foresee will enable future studies of ancient populations movements, and their putative effects on local fauna and flora

Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia-Evaluation and Potential

Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1 degrees spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets-latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates ("standard" KK10 scenarios)-to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350-100 BP, 700-350 BP, 3.2-2.7 k BP, and 6.2-5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research

Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia-Evaluation and Potential

Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1 degrees spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets-latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates ("standard" KK10 scenarios)-to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350-100 BP, 700-350 BP, 3.2-2.7 k BP, and 6.2-5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research

Human demography changes in Morocco and environmental imprint during the Holocene

The aim of this work is to reconstruct the periods of growth and decline of human populations in Morocco and their potential impacts on the landscape over the past 10,000 years. In order to estimate the trends in the human population size between 10,000 and 3000 years ago, we used a summed probability distribution (SPD) of radiocarbon dates from a wide range of archaeological sites throughout Morocco. Landscape changes were identified and quantified from a dataset of fossil pollen records. Different anthropogenic pollen markers, as well as natural vegetation groups and taxonomic richness were used to analyse the relationship between long-term trends in human population expansion or regression and type of impact on the landscape. The sub-regions of Morocco have different topographies and climates, which have either favoured or prevented the establishment and/or spread of human populations. In order to identify the areas most significantly impacted by humans and the timing of such impacts, we have reconstructed and compared the same past anthropogenic and landscape proxies along with the population trends within the lowlands and mountainous areas. The lowlands were more strongly impacted earlier in the Holocene than the mountainous areas. Anthropogenic markers indicate that farming expanded in the lowlands during the first major expansion of human populations between ca. 7200 and 6700 cal. yr BP at the start of the Neolithic period. In the Atlas and Rif Mountains, anthropogenic impact is not clearly detectable in any of these areas before 4000 cal. BP. </jats:p

Tracking the hydro-climatic signal from lake to sediment: a field study from central Turkey

Palaeo-hydrological interpretations of lake sediment proxies can benefit from a robust understanding of the modern lake environment. In this study, we use Nar Gölü, a non-outlet, monomictic maar lake in central Turkey, as a field site for a natural experiment using observations and measurements over a 17-year monitoring period (1997–2014). We compare lake water and sediment trap data to isotopic, chemical and biotic proxies preserved in its varved sediments. Nar Gölü underwent a 3 m lake-level fall between 2000 and 2010. δ18Olakewater is correlated with this lake-level fall, responding to the change in water balance. Endogenic carbonate is shown to precipitate in isotopic equilibrium with lake water and there is a strong relationship between δ18Olakewater and δ18Ocarbonate, which suggests the water balance signal is accurately recorded in the sediment isotope record. Over the same period, sedimentary diatom assemblages also responded, and conductivity inferred from diatoms showed a rise. Shifts in carbonate mineralogy and elemental chemistry in the sediment record through this decade were also recorded. Intra-annual changes in δ18Olakewater and lake water chemistry are used to demonstrate the seasonal variability of the system and the influence this may have on the interpretation of δ18Ocarbonate. We use these relationships to help interpret the sedimentary record of changing lake hydrology over the last 1725 years. Nar Gölü has provided an opportunity to test critically the chain of connection from present to past, and its sedimentary record offers an archive of decadal- to centennial-scale hydro-climatic chang

A tale of two lakes: a multi-proxy comparison of Lateglacial and Holocene environmental change in Cappadocia, Turkey

Individual palaeoenvironmental records represent a combination of regional-scale (e.g. climatic) and site-specific local factors. Here we compare multiple climate proxies from two nearby maar lake records, assuming that common signals are due to regional-scale forcing. A new core sequence from Nar Lake in Turkey is dated by varves and U–Th to the last 13.8 ka. Markedly dry periods during the Lateglacial stadial, at 4.3–3.7 and at 3.2–2.6 ka BP, are associated with peaks in Mg/dolomite, positive δ18O, elevated diatom-inferred electrical conductivity, an absence of laminated sediments and low Quercus/chenopod ratios. Wet phases occurred during the early–mid Holocene and 1.5–0.6 ka BP, characterized by negative δ18O, calcite precipitation, high Ca/Sr ratios, a high percentage of planktonic diatoms, laminated sediments and high Quercus/chenopod ratios. Comparison with the record from nearby Eski Acıgöl shows good overall correspondence for many proxies, especially for δ18O. Differences are related to basin infilling and lake ontogeny at Eski Acıgöl, which consequently fails to register climatic changes during the last 2 ka, and to increased flux of lithogenic elements into Nar Lake during the last 2.6 ka, not primarily climatic in origin. In attempting to separate a regional signal from site-specific ‘noise’, two lakes may therefore be better than one

Mid-Holocene European climate revisited: New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover

Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750-1850). In this study, climate and vegetation 6000 years (6 ka) ago is investigated using one global climate model, two regional climate models, one dynamical vegetation model, pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation cover using a model of the pollen-vegetation relationship and a statistical model for spatial interpolation of the reconstructed land cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka climate with potential natural and reconstructed land cover, and to determine how differences in land cover impact upon simulated climate. The use of two regional climate models enables us to discuss the robustness of the results. This is the first experiment with two regional climate models of simulated palaeo-climate based on regional climate models.Different estimates of 6 ka vegetation are constructed: simulated potential vegetation and reconstructed vegetation. Potential vegetation is the natural climate-induced vegetation as simulated by a dynamical vegetation model driven by climate conditions from a climate model. Bayesian spatial model interpolated point estimates of pollen-based plant abundances combined with estimates of climate-induced potential un-vegetated land cover were used for reconstructed vegetation. The simulated potential vegetation is heavily dominated by forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate in northern and eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved forests dominate central and western Europe. In contrast, the reconstructed vegetation cover has a large component of open land in most of Europe.The simulated 6 ka climate using reconstructed vegetation was 0-5 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending on season and region. The largest differences are seen in north-eastern Europe in winter with about 4-6 degrees C, and the smallest differences (close to zero) in southwestern Europe in winter. The simulated 6 ka climate had 10-20% more precipitation than PI climate in northern Europe and 10-20% less precipitation in southern Europe in summer. The results are in reasonable agreement with proxy-based climate reconstructions and previous similar climate modelling studies. As expected, the global model and regional models indicate relatively similar climates albeit with regional differences indicating that, models response to land-cover changes differently.The results indicate that the anthropogenic land-cover changes, as given by the reconstructed vegetation, in this study are large enough to have a significant impact on climate. It is likely that anthropogenic impact on European climate via land-use change was already taking place at 6 ka. Our results suggest that anthropogenic land-cover changes at 6 ka lead to around 0.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer due to biogeophysical forcing. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Palaeolimnological evidence for an east-west climate see-saw in the Mediterranean since AD 900

During the period of instrumental records, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has strongly influenced inter-annual precipitation variations in the western Mediterranean, while some eastern parts of the basin have shown an anti-phase relationship in precipitation and atmospheric pressure. Here we explore how the NAO and other atmospheric circulation modes operated over the longer timescales of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). High-resolution palaeolimnological evidence from opposite ends of the Mediterranean basin, supplemented by other palaeoclimate data, is used to track shifts in regional hydro-climatic conditions. Multiple geochemical, sedimentological, isotopic and palaeoecological proxies from Estanya and Montcortés lakes in northeast Spain and Nar lake in central Turkey have been cross-correlated at decadal time intervals since AD 900. These dryland lakes capture sensitively changes in precipitation/evaporation (P/E) balance by adjustments in water level and salinity, and are especially valuable for reconstructing variability over decadal-centennial timescales. Iberian lakes show lower water levels and higher salinities during the 11th to 13th centuries synchronous with the MCA and generally more humid conditions during the 'LIA' (15th-19th centuries). This pattern is also clearly evident in tree-ring records from Morocco and from marine cores in the western Mediterranean Sea. In the eastern Mediterranean, palaeoclimatic records from Turkey, Greece and the Levant show generally drier hydro-climatic conditions during the LIA and a wetter phase during the MCA. This implies that a bipolar climate see-saw has operated in the Mediterranean for the last 1100. years. However, while western Mediterranean aridity appears consistent with persistent positive NAO state during the MCA, the pattern is less clear in the eastern Mediterranean. Here the strongest evidence for higher winter season precipitation during the MCA comes from central Turkey in the northeastern sector of the Mediterranean basin. This in turn implies that the LIA/MCA hydro-climatic pattern in the Mediterranean was determined by a combination of different climate modes along with major physical geographical controls, and not by NAO forcing alone, or that the character of the NAO and its teleconnections have been non-stationary. © 2011 Elsevier B.V

Mid-Holocene European climate revisited: New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover

Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750-1850). In this study, climate and vegetation 6000 years (6 ka) ago is investigated using one global climate model, two regional climate models, one dynamical vegetation model, pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation cover using a model of the pollen-vegetation relationship and a statistical model for spatial interpolation of the reconstructed land cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka climate with potential natural and reconstructed land cover, and to determine how differences in land cover impact upon simulated climate. The use of two regional climate models enables us to discuss the robustness of the results. This is the first experiment with two regional climate models of simulated palaeo-climate based on regional climate models.Different estimates of 6 ka vegetation are constructed: simulated potential vegetation and reconstructed vegetation. Potential vegetation is the natural climate-induced vegetation as simulated by a dynamical vegetation model driven by climate conditions from a climate model. Bayesian spatial model interpolated point estimates of pollen-based plant abundances combined with estimates of climate-induced potential un-vegetated land cover were used for reconstructed vegetation. The simulated potential vegetation is heavily dominated by forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate in northern and eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved forests dominate central and western Europe. In contrast, the reconstructed vegetation cover has a large component of open land in most of Europe.The simulated 6 ka climate using reconstructed vegetation was 0-5 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending on season and region. The largest differences are seen in north-eastern Europe in winter with about 4-6 degrees C, and the smallest differences (close to zero) in southwestern Europe in winter. The simulated 6 ka climate had 10-20% more precipitation than PI climate in northern Europe and 10-20% less precipitation in southern Europe in summer. The results are in reasonable agreement with proxy-based climate reconstructions and previous similar climate modelling studies. As expected, the global model and regional models indicate relatively similar climates albeit with regional differences indicating that, models response to land-cover changes differently.The results indicate that the anthropogenic land-cover changes, as given by the reconstructed vegetation, in this study are large enough to have a significant impact on climate. It is likely that anthropogenic impact on European climate via land-use change was already taking place at 6 ka. Our results suggest that anthropogenic land-cover changes at 6 ka lead to around 0.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer due to biogeophysical forcing. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd