Ecosystem complexity on the Kerguelen Axis: the need for integrated ecosystem studies and sustained coordinated monitoring

第6回極域科学シンポジウム[OB] 極域生物圏11月16日（月）　統計数理研究所 セミナー室1（D305

Climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems: Toward robust approaches for managing risks and uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.publishedVersio

Utilising IPCC assessments to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within a warming Southern Ocean

Southern Ocean marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate-driven change, the impacts of which must be factored into conservation and management. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is aware of the urgent need to develop climate-responsive options within its ecosystem approach to management. However, limited capacity as well as political differences have meant that little progress has been made. Strengthening scientific information flow to inform CCAMLR’s decision-making on climate change may help to remove some of these barriers. On this basis, this study encourages the utilisation of outputs from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) constitutes the most rigorous and up-to-date assessment of how oceans and the cryosphere are changing, how they are projected to change, and the consequences of those changes, together with a range of response options. To assist CCAMLR to focus on what is most useful from this extensive global report, SROCC findings that have specific relevance to the management of Southern Ocean ecosystems are extracted and summarised here. These findings are translated into recommendations to CCAMLR, emphasising the need to reduce and manage the risks that climate change presents to harvested species and the wider ecosystem of which they are part. Improved linkages between IPCC, CCAMLR and other relevant bodies may help overcome existing impediments to progress, enabling climate change to become fully integrated into CCAMLR’s policy and decision-making

Technically advanced and SF6-free 145 kV blue GIS

SF6, the most commonly used arc extinguishing and insulating gas in gas-insulated switchgears (GIS), is a greenhouse gas with high global warming potential, requiring careful handling throughout its life cycle. In order to reduce the GIS-related global warming impact, innovative solutions using alternative gases have been developed by different manufacturers, especially the blue GIS from Siemens – available for 145 kV / 40 kA / 3150 A – with clean air insulation and vacuum switching technology shows many technical advantages

Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone

The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predic- tions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing im- proved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29

A Standardized, Large-Scale Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean and the Underpinning Role of Biodiversity Data

Assessments of change in ecosystems and their drivers are central for meeting the challenge of conserving biodiversity in the long term. Such assessments support national and international agencies to implement management actions that sustain natural systems and maintain the delivery of ecosystem services. Change in marine systems may arise directly from human activities (e.g., fisheries), indirectly from local or global activities (cascading effects through food webs from fisheries or changing environments from climate change and/or ocean acidification), or from naturally varying processes. A particular challenge for managers is to understand the likely impacts of future climate change on ecosystems, and to consider what actions might be needed (climate change mitigation and adaption) to continue to meet conservation requirements into the future. For large regions such as the Southern Ocean, which have the attention of many management or policy-oriented bodies, a standardized process is needed to harmonize the scientific information on the status and trends in ecosystems used by the different bodies. That process also needs to ensure the information is available in a timely manner.The Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) is the first circumpolar interdisciplinary assessment of Southern Ocean ecosystem status and trends. It is a core activity of the program Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean (ICED) (a regional program of Integrated Marine Biosphere Research), and co-sponsored by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). MEASO is a spatially-structured circumpolar ecosystem assessment that has drawn on a broad range of data, including biodiversity data. It has been a 5-year inclusive international activity, modelled on a working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, providing a forward-looking assessment of status and trends in Southern Ocean ecosystems. To date, it has involved over 200 scientists from across the Antarctic and Southern Ocean scientific community (18 countries, >50% identifying as women, >40% early career), contributing to 25 research articles published in a special research topic in Frontiers journals*1.This presentation will describe the MEASO process and highlight over-arching findings and key messages for Southern Ocean ecosystems. It will highlight the underpinning importance of biodiversity data and standards, and will provide an overview of priorities for improving future assessments and policy-relevant advice, including those that relate to data standards and FAIR principles (the Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reuse of digital assets)