Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe.

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998-2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1-15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1-15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells

Affine Subspace Representation for Feature Description

This paper proposes a novel Affine Subspace Representation (ASR) descriptor to deal with affine distortions induced by viewpoint changes. Unlike the traditional local descriptors such as SIFT, ASR inherently encodes local information of multi-view patches, making it robust to affine distortions while maintaining a high discriminative ability. To this end, PCA is used to represent affine-warped patches as PCA-patch vectors for its compactness and efficiency. Then according to the subspace assumption, which implies that the PCA-patch vectors of various affine-warped patches of the same keypoint can be represented by a low-dimensional linear subspace, the ASR descriptor is obtained by using a simple subspace-to-point mapping. Such a linear subspace representation could accurately capture the underlying information of a keypoint (local structure) under multiple views without sacrificing its distinctiveness. To accelerate the computation of ASR descriptor, a fast approximate algorithm is proposed by moving the most computational part (ie, warp patch under various affine transformations) to an offline training stage. Experimental results show that ASR is not only better than the state-of-the-art descriptors under various image transformations, but also performs well without a dedicated affine invariant detector when dealing with viewpoint changes.Comment: To Appear in the 2014 European Conference on Computer Visio

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services.

Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat-health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe

Effective ecosystem monitoring requires a multi-scaled approach

Ecosystem monitoring is fundamental to our understanding of how ecosystem change is impacting our natural resources and is vital for developing evidence-based policy and management. However, the different types of ecosystem monitoring, along with their recommended applications, are often poorly understood and contentious. Varying definitions and strict adherence to a specific monitoring type can inhibit effective ecosystem monitoring, leading to poor program development, implementation and outcomes. In an effort to develop a more consistent and clear understanding of ecosystem monitoring programs, we here review the main types of monitoring and recommend the widespread adoption of three classifications of monitoring, namely, targeted, surveillance and landscape monitoring. Landscape monitoring is conducted over large areas, provides spatial data, and enables questions relating to where and when ecosystem change is occurring to be addressed. Surveillance monitoring uses standardised field methods to inform on what is changing in our environments and the direction and magnitude of that change, whilst targeted monitoring is designed around testable hypotheses over defined areas and is the best approach for determining the causes of ecosystem change. The classification system is flexible and can incorporate different interests, objectives, targets and characteristics as well as different spatial scales and temporal frequencies, while also providing valuable structure and consistency across distinct ecosystem monitoring programs. To support our argument, we examine the ability of each monitoring type to inform on six key types of questions that are routinely posed for ecosystem monitoring programs, such as where and when change is occurring, what is the magnitude of change, and how can the change be managed? As we demonstrate, each type of ecosystem monitoring has its own strengths and weaknesses, which should be carefully considered relative to the desired results. Using this scheme, scientists and land managers can design programs best suited to their needs. Finally, we assert that for our most serious environmental challenges, it is essential that we include information from each of these monitoring scales to inform on all facets of ecosystem change, and this is best achieved through close collaboration between the scales. With a renewed understanding of the importance of each monitoring type, along with greater commitment to monitor cooperatively, we will be well placed to address some of our greatest environmental challenges

Credit and the No-Surcharge Rule

A controversial aspect of payment cards has been the 'no-surcharge rule.' This rule, which is part of the contract between the card provider and a merchant, states that the merchant cannot charge a customer who pays by card more than a customer who pays by cash. In this paper we consider the design of an optimal card-based payment system when cash is available as an alternative means of payment. We find that a version of the no-surcharge rule emerges as a natural and advantageous feature of such a system

Agricultura familiar, multifuncionalidade da agricultura e ruralidade: interfaces de uma realidade complexa.

Nas últimas décadas, assistimos à revitalização do debate em torno da agricultura familiar pela incorporação das discussões sobre as múltiplas funções da agricultura num rural que não pode mais ser visto como domínio exclusivo da atividade agrícola e dos agricultores. No contexto brasileiro, acreditamos que essa discussão deva ser permeada pela análise de como processos diferenciados de distribuição fundiária e desenvolvimento econômico e o tipo de agricultura resultante geram ruralidades específicas com características como, no caso da agricultura familiar, a manutenção de práticas sociais e de trabalho marcadas pelas relações de parentesco e vizinhança presentes numa sociedade de interconhecimento. Partindo desse princípio, este trabalho analisa a agricultura familiar de um bairro rural do município de Ouro Fino - MG, sua herança histórica e sua participação na criação de uma paisagem natural e humana que muito contribui para a atratividade da região

Global trends in aquatic animal tracking with acoustic telemetry

Acoustic telemetry (AT) is a rapidly evolving technique used to track the movements of aquatic animals. As the capacity of AT research expands it is important to optimize its relevance to management while still pursuing key ecological questions. A global review of AT literature revealed region-specific research priorities underscoring the breadth of how AT is applied, but collectively demonstrated a lack of management-driven objectives, particularly relating to fisheries, climate change, and protection of species. In addition to the need for more research with direct pertinence to management, AT research should prioritize ongoing efforts to create collaborative opportunities, establish long-term and ecosystem-based monitoring, and utilize technological advancements to bolster aquatic policy and ecological understanding worldwide

A high-resolution map of human evolutionary constraint using 29 mammals.

The comparison of related genomes has emerged as a powerful lens for genome interpretation. Here we report the sequencing and comparative analysis of 29 eutherian genomes. We confirm that at least 5.5% of the human genome has undergone purifying selection, and locate constrained elements covering ∼4.2% of the genome. We use evolutionary signatures and comparisons with experimental data sets to suggest candidate functions for ∼60% of constrained bases. These elements reveal a small number of new coding exons, candidate stop codon readthrough events and over 10,000 regions of overlapping synonymous constraint within protein-coding exons. We find 220 candidate RNA structural families, and nearly a million elements overlapping potential promoter, enhancer and insulator regions. We report specific amino acid residues that have undergone positive selection, 280,000 non-coding elements exapted from mobile elements and more than 1,000 primate- and human-accelerated elements. Overlap with disease-associated variants indicates that our findings will be relevant for studies of human biology, health and disease