Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Objective To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms. Design Multivariable prognostic prediction model. Setting 127 Spanish hospitals. Participants Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. Interventions Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Main outcome measures 30-day mortality. Results Patients? characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806?0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819?0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0?2 points (0%?2.1%), moderate with 3?5 (4.7%?6.3%), high with 6?8 (10.6%?19.5%) and very high with 9?30 (27.7%?100%). Conclusions A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.Funding. This work was supported by Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of the manuscript. JB, JRB, IJ, JC, JP and JRA received funding for research from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013-2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe”, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014-2020. Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)). Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP))

Methodology and fieldwork logistics of a multilevel research study on the influence of neigbourdhood's characteristics on natives and Ecuadorian's mental health in Spain

The methodological design, characteristics and fieldwork stage of a multilevel research study on the impact of the environmental characteristics on mental health in an autochthonous and immigrant population are described in this paper. Individual data were obtained using a core questionnaire 40 minutes length from home interviews of Spanish and Ecuadorian adults from September 2006 to January 2007. A random sample of 1186 people aged 18-55, with equal distribution of gender and nationality was obtained from Civil Registers of 33 areas (municipalities or neighbourhoods) of Madrid, Alicante, Almeria and Murcia, chosen by ethnic density and socioeconomic criteria. Previously, a pilot study was carried out. Socioeconomic indicators of neighbourhoods and selected communities were obtained from Municipal Registers and other secondary sources. Finally, 1144 people were interviewed (96%). Each person was contacted at home at two different times. The global response rate was 61%, higher among Ecuadorians (69%), who presented more problems of localisation (34%). Analyzing methods and fieldwork process the conclusion is that sample strategies for this type of population studies should be evaluated using feasibility criteria given time and money constraints, against the need to obtain representative samples of the target populations. There were serious shortcomings in the availability of social integration indicators at the neighbourhood level. Se realizó una investigación multinivel sobre el impacto de las características ambientales de la zona de residencia en la salud mental de población autóctona e inmigrante. El objetivo de este artículo es describir el planteamiento metodológico de la investigación, el trabajo de campo, las tasas de respuesta correspondientes y discutir el diseño metodológico y las dificultades derivadas de su puesta en práctica. Los datos individuales se obtuvieron aplicando un cuestionario estructurado de aproximadamente 40 minutos, mediante entrevista domiciliaria a personas españolas y ecuatorianas de 18 a 55 años. El trabajo se realizó de septiembre de 2006 a enero de 2007 en una muestra estimada de 1.186 personas equiparada por sexo y nacionalidad, obtenida aleatoriamente de los Padrones Municipales de 33 áreas (municipios o barrios) de Madrid, Alicante, Almería y Murcia, seleccionadas según criterios de densidad étnica y socioeconómicos. Previamente se realizó un estudio piloto (n=113) Los indicadores sociodemográficos de las áreas se obtuvieron a partir de fuentes secundarias. Se entrevistó a 1.144 personas (96%). La tasa de respuesta global fue del 61%, superior entre ecuatorianos (69%), colectivo que presentó más problemas de localización (34%). Las negativas a colaborar fueron más altas entre españoles (21%). Se concluye que en este tipo de estudios sería conveniente revisar las estrategias de muestreo para combinar criterios de eficiencia con la necesidad de obtener una muestra representativa de la población diana. Se constata la dificultad de obtener datos inframunicipales de integración social

Epidemiological trends of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain, 2015-2019

Altres ajuts: Spanish AIDS Research Network; European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER).Objectives: We assessed the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and active HCV infection (HCV-RNA-positive) in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Spain in 2019 and compared the results with those of four similar studies performed during 2015-2018. Methods: The study was performed in 41 centres. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 1%. Patients were selected by random sampling with proportional allocation. Results: The reference population comprised 41 973 PLWH, and the sample size was 1325. HCV serostatus was known in 1316 PLWH (99.3%), of whom 376 (28.6%) were HCV antibody (Ab)-positive (78.7% were prior injection drug users); 29 were HCV-RNA-positive (2.2%). Of the 29 HCV-RNA-positive PLWH, infection was chronic in 24, it was acute/recent in one, and it was of unknown duration in four. Cirrhosis was present in 71 (5.4%) PLWH overall, three (10.3%) HCV-RNA-positive patients and 68 (23.4%) of those who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy (p = 0.04). The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies decreased steadily from 37.7% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2019 (p < 0.001); the prevalence of active HCV infection decreased from 22.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Uptake of anti-HCV treatment increased from 53.9% in 2015 to 95.0% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In Spain, the prevalence of active HCV infection among PLWH at the end of 2019 was 2.2%, i.e. 90.0% lower than in 2015. Increased exposure to DAAs was probably the main reason for this sharp reduction. Despite the high coverage of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents, HCV-related cirrhosis remains significant in this population

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p &lt; 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics

Transformación OMOP-CDM del repositorio para usos secundarios de la cohorte de la Red Española de Investigación en SIDA (CoRIS)

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Antiretroviral pill count and clinical outcomes in treatment-naïve patients with HIV infection

OBJECTIVES: Treatment guidelines recommend single-tablet regimens for patients with HIV infection starting antiretroviral therapy. These regimens might be as effective and cost less if taken as separate drugs. We assessed whether the one pill once a day combination of efavirenz, emtricitabine and tenofovir reduces the risk of disease progression compared with multiple-pill formulations of the same regimen. METHODS: We selected treatment-naïve patients starting one-, two- or three-pill formulations of this regimen in data from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. These patients were followed until an AIDS event or death or until they modified their regimen. We analysed these data using Cox regression models, then used our models to predict the potential consequences of exposing a future population to either a one-pill regimen or a three-pill regimen. RESULTS: Among 11 739 treatment-naïve patients starting the regimen, there were 386 AIDS events and 87 deaths. Follow-up often ended when patients switched to the same regimen with fewer pills. After the first month, two pills rather than one was associated with an increase in the risk of AIDS or death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.39; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.91], but three pills rather than two did not appreciably add to that increase (HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.84-1.68). We estimate that 77 patients would need to be exposed to a one-pill regimen rather than a three-pill regimen for 1 year to avoid one additional AIDS event or death. CONCLUSIONS: This particular single-tablet regimen is associated with a modest decrease in the risk of AIDS or death relative to multiple-pill formulations

Antiretroviral pill count and clinical outcomes in treatment-naïve patients with HIV infection

OBJECTIVES: Treatment guidelines recommend single-tablet regimens for patients with HIV infection starting antiretroviral therapy. These regimens might be as effective and cost less if taken as separate drugs. We assessed whether the one pill once a day combination of efavirenz, emtricitabine and tenofovir reduces the risk of disease progression compared with multiple-pill formulations of the same regimen. METHODS: We selected treatment-naïve patients starting one-, two- or three-pill formulations of this regimen in data from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. These patients were followed until an AIDS event or death or until they modified their regimen. We analysed these data using Cox regression models, then used our models to predict the potential consequences of exposing a future population to either a one-pill regimen or a three-pill regimen. RESULTS: Among 11 739 treatment-naïve patients starting the regimen, there were 386 AIDS events and 87 deaths. Follow-up often ended when patients switched to the same regimen with fewer pills. After the first month, two pills rather than one was associated with an increase in the risk of AIDS or death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.39; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.91], but three pills rather than two did not appreciably add to that increase (HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.84-1.68). We estimate that 77 patients would need to be exposed to a one-pill regimen rather than a three-pill regimen for 1 year to avoid one additional AIDS event or death. CONCLUSIONS: This particular single-tablet regimen is associated with a modest decrease in the risk of AIDS or death relative to multiple-pill formulations

Human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus coinfection in Spain : Prevalence and patient characteristics

The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies (Abs) and active HCV infection in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected (HIV+) patients in Spain in 2015. This was a cross-sectional study.Methods. The study was performed in 41 centers in 2015. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 2%, the number of patients from each hospital was determined by proportional allocation, and patients were selected using simple random sampling. The reference population was 35 791 patients, and the sample size was 1867 patients. Hepatitis C virus serostatus was known in 1843 patients (98.7%). Hepatitis C virus-Abs were detected in 695 patients (37.7%), in whom the main route of HIV acquisition was injection drug use (75.4%). Of these 695 patients, 402 had HCV RNA, 170 had had a sustained viral response (SVR) after anti-HCV therapy, and 102 cleared HCV spontaneously. Hepatitis C virus-ribonucleic acid results were unknown in 21 cases. Genotype distribution (known in 367 patients) was 1a in 143 patients (39.0%), 4 in 90 (24.5%) patients, 1b in 69 (18.8%) patients, 3 in 57 (15.5%) patients, 2 in 5 (1.4%) patients, and mixed in 3 (0.8%) patients. Liver cirrhosis was present in 93 patients (23.1%) with active HCV infection and in 39 (22.9%) patients with SVR after anti-HCV therapy. The prevalence of HCV-Abs and active HCV infection in HIV+ patients in Spain is 37.7% and 22.1%, respectively; these figures are significantly lower than those recorded in 2002 and 2009. The predominant genotypes in patients with active HCV infection were 1a and 4. A high percentage of patients had cirrhosis. Cirrhosis is also common in patients with SVR after anti-HCV therapy

Impact of late presentation of HIV infection on short-, mid- and long-term mortality and causes of death in a multicenter national cohort : 2004-2013

To analyze the impact of late presentation (LP) on overall mortality and causes of death and describe LP trends and risk factors (2004-2013). Cox models and logistic regression were used to analyze data from a nation-wide cohort in Spain. LP is defined as being diagnosed when CD4 < 350 cells/ml or AIDS. Of 7165 new HIV diagnoses, 46.9% (CI:45.7-48.0) were LP, 240 patients died.First-year mortality was the highest (aHR = 10.3[CI:5.5-19.3]); between 1 and 4 years post-diagnosis, aHR = 1.9(1.2-3.0); an

Prediction of long-term outcomes of HIV-infected patients developing non-AIDS events using a multistate approach

Outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) developing non-AIDS events (NAEs) remain poorly defined. We aimed to classify NAEs according to severity, and to describe clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after NAE occurrence using data from CoRIS, a large Spanish HIV cohort from 2004 to 2013. Prospective multicenter cohort study. Using a multistate approach we estimated 3 transition probabilities: from alive and NAE-free to alive and NAE-experienced ("NAE development"); from alive and NAE-experienced to death ("Death after NAE"); and from alive and NAE-free to death ("Death without NAE"). We analyzed the effect of different covariates, including demographic, immunologic and virologic data, on death or NAE development, based on estimates of hazard ratios (HR). We focused on the transition "Death after NAE". 8,789 PLWH were followed-up until death, cohort censoring or loss to follow-up. 792 first incident NAEs occurred in 9.01% PLWH (incidence rate 28.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.80-30.84, per 1000 patient-years). 112 (14.14%) NAE-experienced PLWH and 240 (2.73%) NAE-free PLWH died. Adjusted HR for the transition "Death after NAE" was 12.1 (95%CI, 4.90-29.89). There was a graded increase in the adjusted HRs for mortality according to NAE severity category: HR (95%CI), 4.02 (2.45-6.57) for intermediate-severity; and 9.85 (5.45-17.81) for serious NAEs compared to low-severity NAEs. Male sex (HR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-3.84), ag