Blood pressure in frail older adults: associations with cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality

Background: Blood pressure (BP) management in frail older people is challenging. An randomised controlled trial of largely non-frail older people found cardiovascular and mortality benefit with systolic (S) BP target <120 mmHg. However, all-cause mortality by attained BP in routine care in frail adults aged above 75 is unclear. Objectives: To estimate observational associations between baseline BP and mortality/cardiovascular outcomes in a primary-care population aged above 75, stratified by frailty. Methods: Prospective observational analysis using electronic health records (clinical practice research datalink, n = 415,980). We tested BP associations with cardiovascular events and mortality using competing and Cox proportional-hazards models respectively (follow-up ≤10 years), stratified by baseline electronic frailty index (eFI: fit (non-frail), mild, moderate, severe frailty), with sensitivity analyses on co-morbidity, cardiovascular risk and BP trajectory. Results: Risks of cardiovascular outcomes increased with SBPs >150 mmHg. Associations with mortality varied between non-frail <85 and frail 75-84-year-olds and all above 85 years. SBPs above the 130-139-mmHg reference were associated with lower mortality risk, particularly in moderate to severe frailty or above 85 years (e.g. 75-84 years: 150-159 mmHg Hazard Ratio (HR) mortality compared to 130-139: non-frail HR = 0.94, 0.92-0.97; moderate/severe frailty HR = 0.84, 0.77-0.92). SBP <130 mmHg and Diastolic(D)BP <80 mmHg were consistently associated with excess mortality, independent of BP trajectory toward the end of life. Conclusions: In representative primary-care patients aged ≥75, BP <130/80 was associated with excess mortality. Hypertension was not associated with increased mortality at ages above 85 or at ages 75-84 with moderate/severe frailty, perhaps due to complexities of co-existing morbidities. The priority given to aggressive BP reduction in frail older people requires further evaluation.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.J.M. is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Doctoral Research Fellowship DRF-2014-07-177 for this research project. This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo), submitted versio

New horizons in the role of digital data in the healthcare of older people

There are national and global moves to improve effective digital data design and application in healthcare. This New Horizons commentary describes the role of digital data in healthcare of the ageing population. We outline how health and social care professionals can engage in the proactive design of digital systems that appropriately serve people as they age, carers and the workforce that supports them

Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Age and ageing cardiovascular collection: blood pressure, coronary heart disease and heart failure

As people age they are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Understanding cardiovascular ageing is essential to preserving healthy ageing and preventing serious health outcomes. This collection of papers published in Age and Ageing since 2011 cover key themes in cardiovascular ageing, with a separate collection on stroke and atrial fibrillation planned. Treating high blood pressure remains important as people age and reduces strokes and heart attacks. That said, a more personalised approach to blood pressure may be even more important as people age to lower blood pressure to tight targets where appropriate but avoid overtreatment in vulnerable groups. As people age, more people experience blood pressure drops on standing (orthostatic hypotension), particularly as they become frail. This can predispose them to falls. The papers in this collection provide an insight into blood pressure and orthostatic hypotension. They highlight areas for further research to understand blood pressure changes and management in the ageing population. Inpatient clinical care of older people with heart attacks differs from younger people in UK national audit data. People aged over 80 had improved outcomes in survival after heart attack over time, but had lower rates of specialist input from cardiology compared with younger people. This may partly reflect different clinical presentations, with heart attacks occurring in the context of other health conditions, frailty and multimorbidity. The care and outcomes of acute and chronic cardiovascular disease are impacted by the frailty and health status of an individual at baseline. The research included in this collection reinforces the wide variations in the ageing population and the necessity to focus on the individual needs and priorities, and provide a person-centred multidisciplinary approach to care

Atrial fibrillation, transient ischaemic attack and stroke in older people. A themed collection in age and ageing journal

With an increase in the ageing population, there is a rise in the burden of cardiovascular disease. Age and Ageing have compiled collections of their key cardiovascular themed papers. The first Age and Ageing Cardiovascular Collection focussed on blood pressure, coronary heart disease and heart failure. In this second collection, publications since 2011 were selected with emphasis on atrial fibrillation, transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and stroke. The prevalence of TIA and stroke increases as people get older. In this commentary we summarise studies published in Age and Ageing that bring to the fore the need for a multidisciplinary, person-centred approach to care, conscientious identification of risk factors and their management and prevention strategies, which will inform policy ultimately reducing the burden of cost placed by stroke care on healthcare financing. Read the latest Cardiovascular Collection here

Atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulation in older adults: an update

The article is available via Open Access. Click on the 'Additional link' above to access the full-text.Published version, accepted version (12 month embargo), submitted versio