Forecasting Design Day Demand Using Extremal Quantile Regression

Extreme events occur rarely, making them difficult to predict. Extreme cold events strain natural gas systems to their limits. Natural gas distribution companies need to be prepared to satisfy demand on any given day that is at or warmer than an extreme cold threshold. The hypothetical day with temperature at this threshold is called the Design Day. To guarantee Design Day demand is satisfied, distribution companies need to determine the demand that is unlikely to be exceeded on the Design Day. We approach determining this demand as an extremal quantile regression problem. We review current methods for extremal quantile regression. We implement a quantile forecast to estimate the demand that has a minimal chance of being exceeded on the design day. We show extremal quantile regression to be more reliable than direct quantile estimation. We discuss the difficult task of evaluating a probabilistic forecast on rare events. Probabilistic forecasting is a quickly growing research topic in the field of energy forecasting. Our paper contributes to this field in three ways. First, we forecast quantiles during extreme cold events where data is sparse. Second, we forecast extremely high quantiles that have a very low probability of being exceeded. Finally, we provide a real world scenario on which to apply these techniques

Benchmarking Technology-Based Entrepreneurship in the Charleston Region

A study of resources and opportunities for technology-based economic development in Charleston, South Carolina. The study draws on interviews and a survey of managers of technology-intensive enterprises and public-sector institutions in the Charleston area conducted in June 1996.IC2 Institut

Protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial of STeroid Administration Routes For Idiopathic Sudden sensorineural Hearing loss:The STARFISH trial

Idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL) is the rapid onset of reduced hearing due to loss of function of the inner ear or hearing nerve of unknown aetiology. Evidence supports improved hearing recovery with early steroid treatment, via oral, intravenous, intratympanic or a combination of routes. The STARFISH trial aims to identify the most clinically and cost-effective route of administration of steroids as first-line treatment for ISSNHL. STARFISH is a pragmatic, multicentre, assessor-blinded, three-arm intervention, superiority randomised controlled trial (1:1:1) with an internal pilot (ISRCTN10535105, IRAS 1004878). 525 participants with ISSNHL will be recruited from approximately 75 UK Ear, Nose and Throat units. STARFISH will recruit adults with sensorineural hearing loss averaging 30dBHL or greater across three contiguous frequencies (confirmed via pure tone audiogram), with onset over a ≤3-day period, within four weeks of randomisation. Participants will be randomised to 1) oral prednisolone 1mg/Kg/day up to 60mg/day for 7 days; 2) intratympanic dexamethasone: three intratympanic injections 3.3mg/ml or 3.8mg/ml spaced 7±2 days apart; or 3) combined oral and intratympanic steroids. The primary outcome will be absolute improvement in pure tone audiogram average at 12-weeks following randomisation (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0kHz). Secondary outcomes at 6 and 12 weeks will include: Speech, Spatial and Qualities of hearing scale, high frequency pure tone average thresholds (4.0, 6.0 and 8.0kHz), Arthur Boothroyd speech test, Vestibular Rehabilitation Benefit Questionnaire, Tinnitus Functional Index, adverse events and optional weekly online speech and pure tone hearing tests. A health economic assessment will be performed, and presented in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratios, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year. Primary analyses will be by intention-to-treat. Oral prednisolone will be the reference. For the primary outcome, the difference between group means and 97.5% confidence intervals at each time-point will be estimated via a repeated measures mixed-effects linear regression model

Protostars in the Elephant Trunk Nebula

The optically-dark globule IC 1396A is revealed using Spitzer images at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, 8, and 24 microns to be infrared-bright and to contain a set of previously unknown protostars. The mid-infrared colors of the 24 microns detected sources indicate several very young (Class I or 0) protostars and a dozen Class II stars. Three of the new sources (IC 1396A: gamma, delta, and epsilon) emit over 90% of their bolometric luminosities at wavelengths greater than 3 microns, and they are located within ~0.02 pc of the ionization front at the edge of the globule. Many of the sources have spectra that are still rising at 24 microns. The two previously-known young stars LkHa 349 a and c are both detected, with component c harboring a massive disk and component a being bare. Of order 5% of the mass of material in the globule is presently in the form of protostars in the 10^5 to 10^6 yr age range. This high star formation rate was likely triggered by radiation from a nearby O star.Comment: Spitzer first ApJS special issue (in press

Luminosity-Metallicity Relation for dIrr Galaxies in the Near-Infrared

(abridged) The present work is a first step to collect homogeneous abundances and near-infrared (NIR) luminosities for a sample of dwarf irregular (dIrr) galaxies, located in nearby groups. The use of NIR luminosities is intended to provide a better proxy to mass than the blue luminosities commonly used in the literature; in addition, selecting group members reduces the impact of uncertain distances. Accurate abundances are derived to assess the galaxy metallicity. Optical spectra are collected for Hii regions in the dIrrs, allowing the determination of oxygen abundances by means of the temperature-sensitive method. For each dIrr galaxy H-band imaging is performed and the total magnitudes are measured via surface photometry. This high-quality database allows us to build a well-defined luminosity-metallicity relation in the range -13 >= M(H) >= -20. The scatter around its linear fit is reduced to 0.11 dex, the lowest of all relations currently available. There might exist a difference between the relation for dIrrs and the relation for giant galaxies, although a firm conclusion should await direct abundance determinations for a significant sample of massive galaxies. This new dataset provides an improved luminosity-metallicity relation, based on a standard NIR band, for dwarf star-forming galaxies. The relation can now be compared with some confidence to the predictions of models of galaxy evolution. Exciting follow-ups of this work are (a) exploring groups with higher densities, (b) exploring nearby galaxy clusters to probe environmental effects on the luminosity-metallicity relation, and (c) deriving direct oxygen abundances in the central regions of star-forming giant galaxies, to settle the question of a possible dichotomy between the chemical evolution of dwarfs and that of massive galaxies.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, accepted by A&

Adaptive optics imaging and optical spectroscopy of a multiple merger in a luminous infrared galaxy

(abridged) We present near-infrared (NIR) adaptive optics imaging obtained with VLT/NACO and optical spectroscopy from the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) of a luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG) IRAS 19115-2124. These data are combined with archival HST imaging and Spitzer imaging and spectroscopy, allowing us to study this disturbed interacting/merging galaxy, dubbed the Bird, in extraordinary detail. In particular, the data reveal a triple system where the LIRG phenomenon is dominated by the smallest of the components. One nucleus is a regular barred spiral with significant rotation, while another is highly disturbed with a surface brightness distribution intermediate to that of disk and bulge systems, and hints of remaining arm/bar structure. We derive dynamical masses in the range 3-7x10^10 M_solar for both. The third component appears to be a 1-2x10^10 M_solar mass irregular galaxy. The total system exhibits HII galaxy-like optical line ratios and strengths, and no evidence for AGN activity is found from optical or mid-infrared data. The star formation rate is estimated to be 190 M_solar/yr. We search for SNe, super star clusters, and detect 100-300 km/s outflowing gas from the Bird. Overall, the Bird shows kinematic, dynamical, and emission line properties typical for cool ultra luminous IR galaxies. However, the interesting features setting it apart for future studies are its triple merger nature, and the location of its star formation peak - the strongest star formation does not come from the two major K-band nuclei, but from the third irregular component. Aided by simulations, we discuss scenarios where the irregular component is on its first high-speed encounter with the more massive components.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures. Accepted MNRAS version, minor corrections only, references added. Higher resolution version (1.3MB) is available from http://www.saao.ac.za/~petri/bird/ulirg_bird_highres_vaisanen_v2.pd

Polymorphisms at codons 108 and 189 in murine PrP play distinct roles in the control of scrapie incubation time

Rona Barron - ORCID: 0000-0003-4512-9177 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4512-9177Item not available from this repository.Susceptibility to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) is associated strongly with PrP polymorphisms in humans, sheep and rodents. In mice, scrapie incubation time is controlled by polymorphisms at PrP codons 108 (leucine or phenylalanine) and 189 (threonine or valine), but the precise role of each polymorphism in the control of disease is unknown. The L108F and T189V polymorphisms are present in distinct structural regions of PrP and thus provide an excellent model with which to investigate the role of PrP structure and gene variation in TSEs. Two unique lines of transgenic mice, in which 108F and 189V have been targeted separately into the endogenous murine Prnp a gene, have been produced. TSE inoculation of inbred lines of mice expressing all allelic combinations at codons 108 and 189 has revealed a complex relationship between PrP allele and incubation time. It has been established that both codons 108 and 189 control TSE incubation time, and that each polymorphism plays a distinct role in the disease process. Comparison of ME7 incubation times in mouse lines that are heterozygous at both codons has also identified a previously unrecognized intramolecular interaction between PrP codons 108 and 189.https://doi.org/10.1099/vir.0.80525-086pubpub

Association of acute toxic encephalopathy with litchi consumption in an outbreak in Muzaffarpur, India, 2014: a case-control study

Background Outbreaks of unexplained illness frequently remain under-investigated. In India, outbreaks of an acute neurological illness with high mortality among children occur annually in Muzaffarpur, the country’s largest litchi cultivation region. In 2014, we aimed to investigate the cause and risk factors for this illness. Methods In this hospital-based surveillance and nested age-matched case-control study, we did laboratory investigations to assess potential infectious and non-infectious causes of this acute neurological illness. Cases were children aged 15 years or younger who were admitted to two hospitals in Muzaffarpur with new-onset seizures or altered sensorium. Age-matched controls were residents of Muzaffarpur who were admitted to the same two hospitals for a non-neurologic illness within seven days of the date of admission of the case. Clinical specimens (blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and urine) and environmental specimens (litchis) were tested for evidence of infectious pathogens, pesticides, toxic metals, and other non-infectious causes, including presence of hypoglycin A or methylenecyclopropylglycine (MCPG), naturally-occurring fruit-based toxins that cause hypoglycaemia and metabolic derangement. Matched and unmatched (controlling for age) bivariate analyses were done and risk factors for illness were expressed as matched odds ratios and odds ratios (unmatched analyses). Findings Between May 26, and July 17, 2014, 390 patients meeting the case definition were admitted to the two referral hospitals in Muzaffarpur, of whom 122 (31%) died. On admission, 204 (62%) of 327 had blood glucose concentration of 70 mg/dL or less. 104 cases were compared with 104 age-matched hospital controls. Litchi consumption (matched odds ratio [mOR] 9·6 [95% CI 3·6 – 24]) and absence of an evening meal (2·2 [1·2–4·3]) in the 24 h preceding illness onset were associated with illness. The absence of an evening meal significantly modified the effect of eating litchis on illness (odds ratio [OR] 7·8 [95% CI 3·3–18·8], without evening meal; OR 3·6 [1·1–11·1] with an evening meal). Tests for infectious agents and pesticides were negative. Metabolites of hypoglycin A, MCPG, or both were detected in 48 [66%] of 73 urine specimens from case-patients and none from 15 controls; 72 (90%) of 80 case-patient specimens had abnormal plasma acylcarnitine profiles, consistent with severe disruption of fatty acid metabolism. In 36 litchi arils tested from Muzaffarpur, hypoglycin A concentrations ranged from 12·4 μg/g to 152·0 μg/g and MCPG ranged from 44·9 μg/g to 220·0 μg/g. Interpretation Our investigation suggests an outbreak of acute encephalopathy in Muzaffarpur associated with both hypoglycin A and MCPG toxicity. To prevent illness and reduce mortality in the region, we recommended minimising litchi consumption, ensuring receipt of an evening meal and implementing rapid glucose correction for suspected illness. A comprehensive investigative approach in Muzaffarpur led to timely public health recommendations, underscoring the importance of using systematic methods in other unexplained illness outbreaks

Evaluating the effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutation D614G on transmissibility and pathogenicity

SummaryGlobal dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of Spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large data set, well represented by both Spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the Spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.</jats:p