Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Comparison of algorithms that detect drug side effects using electronic healthcare databases

The electronic healthcare databases are starting to become more readily available and are thought to have excellent potential for generating adverse drug reaction signals. The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database is an electronic healthcare database containing medical information on over 11 million patients that has excellent potential for detecting ADRs. In this paper we apply four existing electronic healthcare database signal detecting algorithms (MUTARA, HUNT, Temporal Pattern Discovery and modified ROR) on the THIN database for a selection of drugs from six chosen drug families. This is the first comparison of ADR signalling algorithms that includes MUTARA and HUNT and enabled us to set a benchmark for the adverse drug reaction signalling ability of the THIN database. The drugs were selectively chosen to enable a comparison with previous work and for variety. It was found that no algorithm was generally superior and the algorithms’ natural thresholds act at variable stringencies. Furthermore, none of the algorithms perform well at detecting rare ADRs

Neural correlates of enhanced visual short-term memory for angry faces: An fMRI study

Copyright: © 2008 Jackson et al.Background: Fluid and effective social communication requires that both face identity and emotional expression information are encoded and maintained in visual short-term memory (VSTM) to enable a coherent, ongoing picture of the world and its players. This appears to be of particular evolutionary importance when confronted with potentially threatening displays of emotion - previous research has shown better VSTM for angry versus happy or neutral face identities.Methodology/Principal Findings: Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, here we investigated the neural correlates of this angry face benefit in VSTM. Participants were shown between one and four to-be-remembered angry, happy, or neutral faces, and after a short retention delay they stated whether a single probe face had been present or not in the previous display. All faces in any one display expressed the same emotion, and the task required memory for face identity. We find enhanced VSTM for angry face identities and describe the right hemisphere brain network underpinning this effect, which involves the globus pallidus, superior temporal sulcus, and frontal lobe. Increased activity in the globus pallidus was significantly correlated with the angry benefit in VSTM. Areas modulated by emotion were distinct from those modulated by memory load.Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide evidence for a key role of the basal ganglia as an interface between emotion and cognition, supported by a frontal, temporal, and occipital network.The authors were supported by a Wellcome Trust grant (grant number 077185/Z/05/Z) and by BBSRC (UK) grant BBS/B/16178

The second data release of the INT Photometric Ha Survey of the Northern Galactic Plane (IPHAS DR2)

The INT/WFC Photometric Hα Survey of the Northern Galactic Plane (IPHAS) is a 1800 deg2 imaging survey covering Galactic latitudes |b| < 5° and longitudes ℓ = 30°–215° in the r, i, and Hα filters using the Wide Field Camera (WFC) on the 2.5-m Isaac Newton Telescope (INT) in La Palma. We present the first quality-controlled and globally calibrated source catalogue derived from the survey, providing single-epoch photometry for 219 million unique sources across 92 per cent of the footprint. The observations were carried out between 2003 and 2012 at a median seeing of 1.1 arcsec (sampled at 0.33 arcsec pixel−1) and to a mean 5σ depth of 21.2 (r), 20.0 (i), and 20.3 (Hα) in the Vega magnitude system. We explain the data reduction and quality control procedures, describe and test the global re-calibration, and detail the construction of the new catalogue. We show that the new calibration is accurate to 0.03 mag (root mean square) and recommend a series of quality criteria to select accurate data from the catalogue. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of the catalogue's unique (r − Hα, r − i) diagram to (i) characterize stellar populations and extinction regimes towards different Galactic sightlines and (ii) select and quantify Hα emission-line objects. IPHAS is the first survey to offer comprehensive CCD photometry of point sources across the Galactic plane at visible wavelengths, providing the much-needed counterpart to recent infrared surveys

Do Interventions Designed to Support Shared Decision-Making Reduce Health Inequalities? : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Copyright: © 2014 Durand et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Background: Increasing patient engagement in healthcare has become a health policy priority. However, there has been concern that promoting supported shared decision-making could increase health inequalities. Objective: To evaluate the impact of SDM interventions on disadvantaged groups and health inequalities. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.Peer reviewe

The role of non-medical therapeutic approaches in the rehabilitation of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

Purpose of the review: Non-medical therapeutic approaches are fundamental to the management of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) in order to promote the best outcome for patients. This review focuses on three key approaches underpinning CRPS rehabilitation, namely: physiotherapy and occupational therapy, psychological approaches and education and self-management. Recent Findings: Recently published European standards outline the quality of therapeutic care that people with CRPS must receive. Early initiated therapy is essential to optimise outcomes, underpinned by patient education. Therapists should promote early movement of the affected limb and encourage re-engagement with usual activities as immobilisation is known to have negative outcomes. There is evidence to support the possible long-term benefit of graded motor imagery and mirror therapy. Psychological assessment should include identification of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, as treatment of these conditions may improve the trajectory of CRPS. Novel therapies include neurocognitive approaches and those addressing spatial bias, both of which should provide a focus for future research.Summary: There exists a broad range of non-medical therapeutic approaches to rehabilitation for CPRS that are thought to be important. However, the evidence for their efficacy is limited. Further research using standardised outcomes would be helpful in developing targeted therapies for the future

Strain-dependent host transcriptional responses to toxoplasma infection are largely conserved in mammalian and avian hosts

Toxoplasma gondii has a remarkable ability to infect an enormous variety of mammalian and avian species. Given this, it is surprising that three strains (Types I/II/III) account for the majority of isolates from Europe/North America. The selective pressures that have driven the emergence of these particular strains, however, remain enigmatic. We hypothesized that strain selection might be partially driven by adaptation of strains for mammalian versus avian hosts. To test this, we examine in vitro, strain-dependent host responses in fibroblasts of a representative avian host, the chicken (Gallus gallus). Using gene expression profiling of infected chicken embryonic fibroblasts and pathway analysis to assess host response, we show here that chicken cells respond with distinct transcriptional profiles upon infection with Type II versus III strains that are reminiscent of profiles observed in mammalian cells. To identify the parasite drivers of these differences, chicken fibroblasts were infected with individual F1 progeny of a Type II x III cross and host gene expression was assessed for each by microarray. QTL mapping of transcriptional differences suggested, and deletion strains confirmed, that, as in mammalian cells, the polymorphic rhoptry kinase ROP16 is the major driver of strain-specific responses. We originally hypothesized that comparing avian versus mammalian host response might reveal an inversion in parasite strain-dependent phenotypes; specifically, for polymorphic effectors like ROP16, we hypothesized that the allele with most activity in mammalian cells might be less active in avian cells. Instead, we found that activity of ROP16 alleles appears to be conserved across host species; moreover, additional parasite loci that were previously mapped for strain-specific effects on mammalian response showed similar strain-specific effects in chicken cells. These results indicate that if different hosts select for different parasite genotypes, the selection operates downstream of the signaling occurring during the beginning of the host's immune response. © 2011 Ong et al

The uptake and effect of a mailed multi-modal colon cancer screening intervention: A pilot controlled trial

Abstract Background We sought to determine whether a multi-modal intervention, which included mailing a patient reminder with a colon cancer decision aid to patients and system changes allowing direct access to scheduling screening tests through standing orders, would be an effective and efficient means of promoting colon cancer screening in primary care practice. Methods We conducted a controlled trial comparing the proportion of intervention patients who received colon cancer screening with wait list controls at one practice site. The intervention was a mailed package that included a letter from their primary care physician, a colon cancer screening decision aid, and instructions for obtaining each screening test without an office visit so that patients could access screening tests directly. Major outcomes were screening test completion and cost per additional patient screened. Results In the intervention group, 15% (20/137) were screened versus 4% (4/100) in the control group (difference 11%; (95%; CI 3%;18% p = 0.01). The cost per additional patient screened was estimated to be $94. Conclusion A multi-modal intervention, which included mailing a patient reminder with a colon cancer decision aid to patients and system changes allowing patients direct access to schedule screening tests, increased colon cancer screening test completion in a subset of patients within a single academic practice. Although the uptake of the decision aid was low, the cost was also modest, suggesting that this method could be a viable approach to colon cancer screening

Generic and disease-specific health related quality of life in non-cirrhotic, cirrhotic and transplanted liver patients: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Studies on Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) of chronic liver patients were performed in clinical populations. These studies included various disease stages but small variations in aetiology and no transplanted patients. We performed a large HRQoL study in non-cirrhotic, cirrhotic and transplanted liver patients with sufficient variety in aetiology. We compared the generic HRQoL and fatigue between liver patients and healthy controls and compared the disease-specific and generic HRQoL and fatigue between non-cirrhotic, cirrhotic and transplanted liver patients, corrected for aetiology. METHODS: Members of the Dutch liver patient association received the Short Form-36, the Liver Disease Symptom Index and the Multidimensional Fatigue Index-20. Based on reported clinical characteristics we classified respondents (n = 1175) as non-cirrhotic, compensated cirrhotic, decompensated cirrhotic or transplants. We used linear, ordinal and logistic regression to compare the HRQoL between groups. RESULTS: All liver patients showed a significantly worse generic HRQoL and fatigue than healthy controls. Decompensated cirrhotic patients showed a significantly worse disease-specific and generic HRQoL and fatigue than non-cirrhotic patients, while HRQoL differences between non-cirrhotic and compensated cirrhotic patients were predominantly insignificant. Transplanted patients showed a better generic HRQoL, less fatigue and lower probabilities of severe symptoms than non-cirrhotic patients, but almost equal probabilities of symptom hindrance. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL in chronic liver patients depends on disease stage and transplant history. Non-cirrhotic and compensated cirrhotic patients have a similar HRQoL. Decompensated patients show the worst HRQoL, while transplanted patients show a significantly better HRQoL than cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients