The use of NDVI and its Derivatives for Monitoring Lake Victoria’s Water Level and Drought Conditions

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is a measure of vegetation vigour, and lake water levels respond variably to precipitation and its deficiency. For a given lake catchment, NDVI may have the ability to depict localized natural variability in water levels in response to weather patterns. This information may be used to decipher natural from unnatural variations of a given lake’s surface. This study evaluates the potential of using NDVI and its associated derivatives (VCI (vegetation condition index), SVI (standardised vegetation index), AINDVI (annually integrated NDVI), green vegetation function (F g ), and NDVIA (NDVI anomaly)) to depict Lake Victoria’s water levels. Thirty years of monthly mean water levels and a portion of the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) NDVI datasets were used. Their aggregate data structures and temporal co-variabilities were analysed using GIS/spatial analysis tools. Locally, NDVI was found to be more sensitive to drought (i.e., responded more strongly to reduced precipitation) than to water levels. It showed a good ability to depict water levels one-month in advance, especially in moderate to low precipitation years. SVI and SWL (standardized water levels) used in association with AINDVI and AMWLA (annual mean water levels anomaly) readily identified high precipitation years, which are also when NDVI has a low ability to depict water levels. NDVI also appears to be able to highlight unnatural variations in water levels. We propose an iterative approach for the better use of NDVI, which may be useful in developing an early warning mechanisms for the management of lake Victoria and other Lakes with similar characteristics

A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

Evolution of Fruit Traits in Ficus Subgenus Sycomorus (Moraceae): To What Extent Do Frugivores Determine Seed Dispersal Mode?

Fig trees are a ubiquitous component of tropical rain forests and exhibit an enormous diversity of ecologies. Focusing on Ficus subgenus Sycomorus, a phenotypically diverse and ecologically important Old World lineage, we examined the evolution of fruit traits using a molecular phylogeny constructed using 5 kilobases of DNA sequence data from 63 species (50% of global diversity). In particular, we ask whether patterns of trait correlations are consistent with dispersal agents as the primary selective force shaping morphological diversity or if other ecological factors may provide a better explanation? Fig colour, size and placement (axial, cauliflorous, or geocarpic) were all highly evolutionarily liable, and the same fruit traits have evolved in different biogeographic regions with substantially different dispersal agents. After controlling for phylogenetic autocorrelation, we found that fig colour and size were significantly associated with fig placement and plant-life history traits (maximum plant height and leaf area, respectively). However, contrary to prevailing assumptions, fig placement correlated poorly with known dispersal agents and appears more likely determined by other factors, such as flowering phenology, nutrient economy, and habitat preference. Thus, plant life-history, both directly and through its influence on fig placement, appears to have played a prominent role in determining fruit traits in these figs

The politics of protest in newspaper campaigns: dissent, populism and the rhetoric of authenticity

Newspaper campaigns embody newspaper’ most emphatic claims to speak for ‘the people’, and as such are generally regarded as populist. However, they can be oppositional, engaging in dissent of one sort or another, and often assume a certain amount of political engagement with that dissent on the part of the audience. This article examines the potential of newspaper camapigns to facilitate the political engagement of citizens through the politics of protest. It draws on qualitative analysis of seven campaigns that ran in the Scottish press between 2000 and 2005, and semi-structured interviews with relevant journalists. The distinction between legitimate protest and manipulative populism is made in terms of: (a) the rhetoric and strategies of political representation, participation and influence and (b) the construction of political legitimacy in terms of the public interest and the moral authority of the ‘victim’. It is argued that populist impulses dominate, driving a tendency to use discourses of emotional authenticity and offence to legitimise demands for a plebiscitary response to popular of ‘victim’ preference and to close down controversy and debate, with the principal objective marketing the newspaper as an influential community champion

Evaluation of the current knowledge limitations in breast cancer research: a gap analysis

BACKGROUND A gap analysis was conducted to determine which areas of breast cancer research, if targeted by researchers and funding bodies, could produce the greatest impact on patients. METHODS Fifty-six Breast Cancer Campaign grant holders and prominent UK breast cancer researchers participated in a gap analysis of current breast cancer research. Before, during and following the meeting, groups in seven key research areas participated in cycles of presentation, literature review and discussion. Summary papers were prepared by each group and collated into this position paper highlighting the research gaps, with recommendations for action. RESULTS Gaps were identified in all seven themes. General barriers to progress were lack of financial and practical resources, and poor collaboration between disciplines. Critical gaps in each theme included: (1) genetics (knowledge of genetic changes, their effects and interactions); (2) initiation of breast cancer (how developmental signalling pathways cause ductal elongation and branching at the cellular level and influence stem cell dynamics, and how their disruption initiates tumour formation); (3) progression of breast cancer (deciphering the intracellular and extracellular regulators of early progression, tumour growth, angiogenesis and metastasis); (4) therapies and targets (understanding who develops advanced disease); (5) disease markers (incorporating intelligent trial design into all studies to ensure new treatments are tested in patient groups stratified using biomarkers); (6) prevention (strategies to prevent oestrogen-receptor negative tumours and the long-term effects of chemoprevention for oestrogen-receptor positive tumours); (7) psychosocial aspects of cancer (the use of appropriate psychosocial interventions, and the personal impact of all stages of the disease among patients from a range of ethnic and demographic backgrounds). CONCLUSION Through recommendations to address these gaps with future research, the long-term benefits to patients will include: better estimation of risk in families with breast cancer and strategies to reduce risk; better prediction of drug response and patient prognosis; improved tailoring of treatments to patient subgroups and development of new therapeutic approaches; earlier initiation of treatment; more effective use of resources for screening populations; and an enhanced experience for people with or at risk of breast cancer and their families. The challenge to funding bodies and researchers in all disciplines is to focus on these gaps and to drive advances in knowledge into improvements in patient care

Political leadership and the politics of performance:France, Syria and the chemical weapons crisis of 2013

This article draws upon developments in UK research on political rhetoric and political performance in order to examine the incident in 2013 when French President François Hollande committed French forces to a US-led punitive strike against Syria, after the use of chemical weapons in a Damascus suburb on 21 August. The US-led retaliation did not take place. This article analyses Hollande's declaration on 27 July and his TV appearance on 15 September. His rhetoric and style are best understood as generic to the nature of the presidential office of the Fifth Republic. The article concludes by appraising how analysis of the French case contributes to the developing literature on rhetoric, celebrity and performance

Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically

Social science scholars routinely evaluate the efficacy of diverse climate frames using local convenience or nationally representative samples. For example, previous research has focused on communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, which has been identified as a ‘gateway’ cognition to other key beliefs about the issue6,7,8,9. Importantly, although these efforts reveal average public responsiveness to particular climate frames, they do not describe variation in message effectiveness at the spatial and political scales relevant for climate policymaking. Here we use a small-area estimation method to map geographical variation in public responsiveness to information about the scientific consensus as part of a large-scale randomized national experiment (n = 6,301). Our survey experiment finds that, on average, public perception of the consensus increases by 16 percentage points after message exposure. However, substantial spatial variation exists across the United States at state and local scales. Crucially, responsiveness is highest in more conservative parts of the country, leading to national convergence in perceptions of the climate science consensus across diverse political geographies. These findings not only advance a geographical understanding of how the public engages with information about scientific agreement, but will also prove useful for policymakers, practitioners and scientists engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation.MacArhur Foundation, Energy Foundatio

Seasonality of Leaf and Fig Production in Ficus squamosa, a Fig Tree with Seeds Dispersed by Water

The phenology of plants reflects selection generated by seasonal climatic factors and interactions with other plants and animals, within constraints imposed by their phylogenetic history. Fig trees (Ficus) need to produce figs year-round to support their short-lived fig wasp pollinators, but this requirement is partially de-coupled in dioecious species, where female trees only develop seeds, not pollinator offspring. This allows female trees to concentrate seed production at more favorable times of the year. Ficus squamosa is a riparian species whose dispersal is mainly by water, rather than animals. Seeds can float and travel in long distances. We recorded the leaf and reproductive phenology of 174 individuals for three years in Chiang Mai, Northern Thailand. New leaves were produced throughout the year. Fig production occurred year-round, but with large seasonal variations that correlated with temperature and rainfall. Female and male trees initiated maximal fig crops at different times, with production in female trees confined mainly to the rainy season and male figs concentrating fig production in the preceding months, but also often bearing figs continually. Ficus squamosa concentrates seed production by female plants at times when water levels are high, favouring dispersal by water, and asynchronous flowering within male trees allow fig wasps to cycle there, providing them with potential benefits by maintaining pollinators for times when female figs become available to pollinate

eLearning resources to supplement postgraduate neurosurgery training.

BACKGROUND: In an increasingly complex and competitive professional environment, improving methods to educate neurosurgical residents is key to ensure high-quality patient care. Electronic (e)Learning resources promise interactive knowledge acquisition. We set out to give a comprehensive overview on available eLearning resources that aim to improve postgraduate neurosurgical training and review the available literature. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A MEDLINE query was performed, using the search term "electronic AND learning AND neurosurgery". Only peer-reviewed English-language articles on the use of any means of eLearning to improve theoretical knowledge in postgraduate neurosurgical training were included. Reference lists were crosschecked for further relevant articles. Captured parameters were the year, country of origin, method of eLearning reported, and type of article, as well as its conclusion. eLearning resources were additionally searched for using Google. RESULTS: Of n = 301 identified articles by the MEDLINE search, n = 43 articles were analysed in detail. Applying defined criteria, n = 28 articles were excluded and n = 15 included. Most articles were generated within this decade, with groups from the USA, the UK and India having a leadership role. The majority of articles reviewed existing eLearning resources, others reported on the concept, development and use of generated eLearning resources. There was no article that scientifically assessed the effectiveness of eLearning resources (against traditional learning methods) in terms of efficacy or costs. Only one article reported on satisfaction rates with an eLearning tool. All authors of articles dealing with eLearning and the use of new media in neurosurgery uniformly agreed on its great potential and increasing future use, but most also highlighted some weaknesses and possible dangers. CONCLUSION: This review found only a few articles dealing with the modern aspects of eLearning as an adjunct to postgraduate neurosurgery training. Comprehensive eLearning platforms offering didactic modules with clear learning objectives are rare. Two decades after the rise of eLearning in neurosurgery, some promising solutions are readily available, but the potential of eLearning has not yet been sufficiently exploited

Populist communication in the new media environment: a cross-regional comparative perspective

The changing terms of mediation place new demands, opportunities and risks on the performance of the political persona. Visibility has become a double-edged sword, leaving representatives vulnerable to exposure while new tools provide opportunities for emerging entrepreneurial actors. This double risk to elites’ mediated personas—exposure and challenge from entrepreneurs—renders their armour of authenticity dangerously fragile, which nourishes a public sense of being inefficaciously represented. It is this climate in which populism currently flourishes around the globe. Three primary criteria of mediated self-representation by politicians—visibility, authenticity and efficacy—form the focus of this paper: how do populists negotiate such demands in different democratic contexts, and wherein lies the symbiosis between populism and the new media environment suggested by the literature? To answer this, the paper compares two populist cases responding to different democratic contexts: UKIP, a right-wing party from an established democracy (UK), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a left-wing party from a transitional democracy (South Africa). The objects of study are disruptive performances by these parties, which are considered emblematic manifestations of populist ideology as they establish a Manichaean relationship between the elite and populist actors who embody the people. The paper introduces disruption as a multi-faceted and significant analytical concept to explain the populist behaviour and strategies that underlie populist parties’ responses to the demands for visibility, authenticity and efficacy that the new media environment places upon political representatives. Using mixed methods with an interpretive focus, the paper paints a rich picture of the contexts, meanings and means of construction of populist performances