Predicting the Impact of Long-Term Temperature Changes on the Epidemiology and Control of Schistosomiasis: A Mechanistic Model

, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30°C, but then crashes at 35°C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35°C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective. will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate change on the incidence and severity of such diseases

Trends and determinants of excess winter mortality in New Zealand: 1980 to 2000

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although many countries experience an increase in mortality during winter, the magnitude of this increase varies considerably, suggesting that some winter excess may be avoidable. Conflicting evidence has been presented on the role of gender, region and deprivation. Little has been published on the magnitude of excess winter mortality (EWM) in New Zealand (NZ) and other Southern Hemisphere countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Monthly mortality rates per 100,000 population were calculated from routinely collected national mortality data for 1980 to 2000. Generalised negative binomial regression models were used to compare mortality rates between winter (June–September) and the warmer months (October–May).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 1980–2000 around 1600 excess winter deaths occurred each year with winter mortality rates 18% higher than expected from non-winter rates. Patterns of EWM by age group showed the young and the elderly to be particularly vulnerable. After adjusting for all major covariates, the winter:non-winter mortality rate ratio from 1996–2000 in females was 9% higher than in males. Mortality caused by diseases of the circulatory system accounted for 47% of all excess winter deaths from 1996–2000 with mortality from diseases of the respiratory system accounting for 31%. There was no evidence to suggest that patterns of EWM differed by ethnicity, region or local-area based deprivation level. No decline in seasonal mortality was evident over the two decades.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>EWM in NZ is substantial and at the upper end of the range observed internationally. Interventions to reduce EWM are important, but the surprising lack of variation in EWM by ethnicity, region and deprivation, provides little guidance for how such mortality can be reduced.</p

Circumstellar discs: What will be next?

This prospective chapter gives our view on the evolution of the study of circumstellar discs within the next 20 years from both observational and theoretical sides. We first present the expected improvements in our knowledge of protoplanetary discs as for their masses, sizes, chemistry, the presence of planets as well as the evolutionary processes shaping these discs. We then explore the older debris disc stage and explain what will be learnt concerning their birth, the intrinsic links between these discs and planets, the hot dust and the gas detected around main sequence stars as well as discs around white dwarfs.Comment: invited review; comments welcome (32 pages

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas.</p

An Empirical Analysis of Overlap Publication in Chinese Language and English Research Manuscripts

BACKGROUND: There are a number of sound justifications for publishing nearly identical information in Chinese and English medical journals, assuming several conditions are met. Although overlap publication is perceived as undesirable and ethically questionable in Europe and North America, it may serve an important function in some regions where English is not the native tongue. There is no empirical data on the nature and degree of overlap publication in English and Chinese language journals. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A random sample of 100 English manuscripts from Chinese institutions was selected from PubMed. Key words and institutions were searched in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, a comprehensive Chinese language research database. Unacknowledged overlap was a priori defined according to International Committee of Medical Journal Editor (ICMJE) guidelines following examination by two individuals. 19% (95% CI 11-27) of English manuscripts from Chinese institutions were found to have substantial overlap with Chinese published work based on full text examination. None of the manuscripts met all of the criteria established by the ICMJE for an acknowledged overlap publication. Individual-level, journal-level, and institutional factors seem to influence overlap publication. Manuscripts associated with an institution outside of China and with more than one institution were significantly less likely to have substantial overlap (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overlap publication was common in this context, but instances of standard ICMJE notations to acknowledge this practice were rare. This research did not cite the identified overlap manuscripts with the hope that these empirical data will inform journal policy changes and structural initiatives to promote clearer policies and manuscripts

Familial history of diabetes and clinical characteristics in Greek subjects with type 2 diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A lot of studies have showed an excess maternal transmission of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The aim, therefore, of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of familial history of T2D in Greek patients, and to evaluate its potential effect on the patient's metabolic control and the presence of diabetic complications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1,473 T2D patients were recruited. Those with diabetic mothers, diabetic fathers, diabetic relatives other than parents and no known diabetic relatives, were considered separately.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of diabetes in the mother, the father and relatives other than parents, was 27.7, 11.0 and 10.7%, respectively. Patients with paternal diabetes had a higher prevalence of hypertension (64.8 vs. 57.1%, P = 0.05) and lower LDL-cholesterol levels (115.12 ± 39.76 vs. 127.13 ± 46.53 mg/dl, P = 0.006) than patients with diabetes in the mother. Patients with familial diabetes were significantly younger (P < 0.001), with lower age at diabetes diagnosis (P < 0.001) than those without diabetic relatives. Patients with a diabetic parent had higher body mass index (BMI) (31.22 ± 5.87 vs. 30.67 ± 5.35 Kg/m², P = 0.08), higher prevalence of dyslipidemia (49.8 vs. 44.6%, P = 0.06) and retinopathy (17.9 vs. 14.5%, P = 0.08) compared with patients with no diabetic relatives. No difference in the degree of metabolic control and the prevalence of chronic complications were observed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study showed an excess maternal transmission of T2D in a sample of Greek diabetic patients. However, no different influence was found between maternal and paternal diabetes on the clinical characteristics of diabetic patients except for LDL-cholesterol levels and presence of hypertension. The presence of a family history of diabetes resulted to an early onset of the disease to the offspring.</p

Relationship between Transmission Intensity and Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Thailand

An infection with dengue virus may lead to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a dangerous illness. There is no approved vaccine for this most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, which infects tens of millions (or more) people annually. Therefore, health authorities have been putting an emphasis on reduction of vector mosquitoes, genus Aedes. However, a new mathematical hypothesis predicted, quite paradoxically, that reducing Aedes mosquitoes in highly endemic countries may “increase” the incidence of DHF. To test this hypothesis based upon actual data, we compared DHF incidence collected from each of 1,000 districts in Thailand to data of Aedes abundance, which was obtained by surveying one million households. This analysis showed that reducing Aedes abundance from the highest level in Thailand to a moderate level would increase the incidence by more than 40%. In addition, we developed computer simulation software based upon the above hypothesis. The simulation predicted that epidemiological studies should be continued for a very long duration, preferably over a decade, to clearly detect such a paradoxical relationship between Aedes abundance and incidence of DHF. Such long-term studies are necessary, especially because tremendous efforts and resources have been (and perhaps will be) spent on combating Aedes

Interpopulation crosses, inheritance study, and genetic variability in the brown planthopper complex, Nilaparvata lugens (Homoptera: Delphacidae)

Studies on hybridization, inheritance, and population genetics of brown planthoppers that infest rice and weeds were undertaken using starch gel electrophoresis to determine whether the weed-infesting population represents a biological race or a species. F(1) and F(2) generations were produced by crosses between parental insects from the two populations with little indication of hybrid sterility. Gpi, Mdh, and Idh loci were inherited in a simple Mendelian fashion in families of two sympatric populations. Sixteen populations of Nilaparvata spp. from eight locations were collected. The Mdh, Idh, Pgm, Gpi, 6Pgd, and Acp loci were polymorphic. The N. lugens of rice with high esterase activity were clustered into a group and characterized by the presence of alleles Gpi (110) and Gpi (120), whereas N. lugens from weeds with low esterase activity were clustered into another group and characterized by Gpi (100) and Gpi (90) . There was a lack of heterozygotes between the common alleles of the two populations. This means that the two groups of individuals belong to different gene pools

Image perception and interpretation of abnormalities; can we believe our eyes? Can we do something about it?

The radiologist’s visual impression of images is transmitted, via non-visual means (the report), to the clinician. There are several complex steps from the perception of the images by the radiologist to the understanding of the impression by the clinician. With a process as complex as this, it is no wonder that errors in perception, cognition, interpretation, transmission and understanding are very common. This paper reviews the processes of perception and error generation and possible strategies for minimising them